Live data from Hacker News

Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

bloomberg.com

51–60 of 88 posts

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#51
post #7

Looks like Saudi regime is in big trouble. They won't be able to balance their budget with oil prices so low and they won't be able to make payments to thousands of their princes. I did some searching and found few interesting data points: > For dozens of oil producers, the plunge in oil prices is devastating. No major oil producer can balance its budget at prices below $40; according to the International Monetary Fu…

I'm an Iranian who moved to the U.S. only a few years ago. Something most people here in the U.S. don't understand is that countries like Iran have a far different threshold of pain. Iran, as a result of sanctions had already entered starvation-levels of economic collapse. There are people who are sleeping in open graves. Yet, the regime is not backing down in any way. It hasn't change course at all.

I'd draw a pretty significant distinction between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Iran has a theocratic regime, and gets a lot of oil revenue, but is a fundamentally diversified and surprisingly self-sufficient economy. They have factories, an educated population, and they produce a fair number of things other than oil. Agriculture exists (if not self-sufficient).

Saudi Arabia is oil rich. The princes are oil rich. The wealthy are oil rich. Normal people are oil rich. It's oil, all the way down.

The country simply doesn't produce anything else. Most of the citizens simply don't work -- at all. There's no plan B.

Iran can fall back to "hard times" and a pre-oil-wealth economy. SA can't. There's nothing else there except sand and starvation. They aren't going to "grin and bear it".

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#52
post #39
post #7

Looks like Saudi regime is in big trouble. They won't be able to balance their budget with oil prices so low and they won't be able to make payments to thousands of their princes. I did some searching and found few interesting data points: > For dozens of oil producers, the plunge in oil prices is devastating. No major oil producer can balance its budget at prices below $40; according to the International Monetary Fu…

Can you explain what it means to balance the budget? Is it like break even price for the industary?

To add to the other reply - the dollar per barrel price required to balance the national budget is typically much higher than the price required for the oil extraction to break even.

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm an Iranian who moved to the U.S. only a few years ago. Something most people here in the U.S. don't understand is that countries like Iran have a far different threshold of pain. Iran, as a result of sanctions had already entered starvation-levels of economic collapse. There are people who are sleeping in open graves. Yet, the regime is not backing down in any way. It hasn't change course at all.

I'd draw a pretty significant distinction between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran has a theocratic regime, and gets a lot of oil revenue, but is a fundamentally diversified and surprisingly self-sufficient economy. They have factories, an educated population, and they produce a fair number of things other than oil. Agriculture exists (if not self-sufficient). Saudi Arabia is oil rich. The princes are oil rich. The wealth…

Fairly sure I'v seen news over the past few years about Saudi Arabia diversiftying.

From https://saudiembassy.net/agriculture-water -:

Today, Saudi Arabia exports wheat, dates, dairy products, eggs, fish, poultry, fruits, vegetables and flowers to markets around the world. Dates, once a staple of the Saudi diet, are now mainly grown for global humanitarian aid.

...

As a result, there has been a phenomenal growth in the production of all basic foods. Saudi Arabia is now completely self-sufficient in a number of foodstuffs, including meat, milk and eggs.

From https://saudiembassy.net/energy -:

In addition, with the discovery of deposits of precious and semi-precious metals, Saudi Arabia expects to become a major exporter of minerals in the coming decades.

...

Exploration projects over the past two decades have unearthed extensive deposits of precious and industrial minerals throughout the country. These include not only gold and silver, but also copper, tin, tungsten, nickel, chrome, zinc, lead, phosphates, iron ore, bauxite, potassium ore and even table salt.

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd draw a pretty significant distinction between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran has a theocratic regime, and gets a lot of oil revenue, but is a fundamentally diversified and surprisingly self-sufficient economy. They have factories, an educated population, and they produce a fair number of things other than oil. Agriculture exists (if not self-sufficient). Saudi Arabia is oil rich. The princes are oil rich. The wealth…

Fairly sure I'v seen news over the past few years about Saudi Arabia diversiftying. From https://saudiembassy.net/agriculture-water -: Today, Saudi Arabia exports wheat, dates, dairy products, eggs, fish, poultry, fruits, vegetables and flowers to markets around the world. Dates, once a staple of the Saudi diet, are now mainly grown for global humanitarian aid. ... As a result, there has been a phenomenal growth in t…

I mean, sure, they've made nominal efforts. I hope they succeed. But the fact is, here's the current breakdown of exports: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/sau/

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#55
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ya, and they were diversifying into tourism which is also bust. I’m sure they’ll survive though. Their wealth is in the trillions.

The Saudi budget is a quarter of a trillion dollars. “Trillions” doesn’t last very long at those levels.

Sounds like at least 4-5 years.

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#56
post #44
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is investing in oil majors or low-leveraged midstream a bad idea? Not only do many of these companies have a good balance sheet, but they're 4-6X undervalued if you're long on the investment. Furthermore, these companies are at price points where the dividend yield is 30-60%. You could put a percentage of your yearly salary in and retire on passive income when the market returns to normal. Having a passive income…

I don't follow, dividend yields on the 6 oil majors range from ~5-12% as far as I can tell. It's a far cry from 30-60%. Also many oil companies especially outside of the majors are notorious from having huge debt loads.

I assume the parent is referring to the fact that companies, like Occidental ($OXY) were paying $3.18/share in annual dividends prior to this crash, while trading in the mid-high $40's (~9%). Now that $OXY is down at a near-term high of $15/share that dividend yield represents 21.2%. A few weeks ago it was down at $10/share (~31.8%). That's just one off-hand example, and it's pretty comparable across the industry. Even big players like $XOM were/are in a similar boat, if not to the same extent.

$OXY earnings is coming up this week and I suspect that dividend is going to get slaughtered -- after all, they elected to pay Warren Buffet's special dividend in stock in lieu of cash. If the op is super-long term, I assume they're suggesting that the stock could return, and with it, the dividend, which would be "30%" of your original investment.

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#57
post #7

Looks like Saudi regime is in big trouble. They won't be able to balance their budget with oil prices so low and they won't be able to make payments to thousands of their princes. I did some searching and found few interesting data points: > For dozens of oil producers, the plunge in oil prices is devastating. No major oil producer can balance its budget at prices below $40; according to the International Monetary Fu…

I'm an Iranian who moved to the U.S. only a few years ago. Something most people here in the U.S. don't understand is that countries like Iran have a far different threshold of pain. Iran, as a result of sanctions had already entered starvation-levels of economic collapse. There are people who are sleeping in open graves. Yet, the regime is not backing down in any way. It hasn't change course at all.

Hi Emil. I just wanted to tell you I had a burst of nostalgia when I noticed your username. I got interested in computers and software browsing TechnoTux forums and trying (and failing) to install Parsix. I really appreciate the work you did on open source software and bringing them to Farsi speakers. I wish you the best wherever you are.

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fairly sure I'v seen news over the past few years about Saudi Arabia diversiftying. From https://saudiembassy.net/agriculture-water -: Today, Saudi Arabia exports wheat, dates, dairy products, eggs, fish, poultry, fruits, vegetables and flowers to markets around the world. Dates, once a staple of the Saudi diet, are now mainly grown for global humanitarian aid. ... As a result, there has been a phenomenal growth in t…

I mean, sure, they've made nominal efforts. I hope they succeed. But the fact is, here's the current breakdown of exports: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/sau/

>current

Data is from 2017. Single largest non-petro export being aluminum, at 0.51%.

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#59
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what the US troops are there for. The US needs the Saudi dictators to maintain their influence in the region.

Needed, past tense. US foreign policy used to be shaped around our need for Saudi oil, and IMO hasn’t properly adjusted to the fact that America is energy independent again. The realpolitik question now isn’t “how can I secure Saudi oil” But rather “what’s the least I can do to reduce any risk of terrorism”.

C'mon now, for years the largest source of foreign oil going into the US was from Canada. Even today, Canadian oil accounts for 40% of imports, with the KSA a distant 11% [1]. The whole energy independence as a form of security through reduced financing of questionable governments thing was a red herring, even if you're worried about the northern border.

Imports remain around 7 million barrels of oil per day, down from a high of 9. What's shot up is exports. Oil imports into the US haven't changed much.

The US continues to "need" to import just as much oil as they always have from the KSA. [2] Even Canada imports from the KSA, for a lot of reasons [3].

Keep in mind, too, the largest supply of oil in the world is under Venezuela, with 18% of the global supply.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_in_the_United_States

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_in_the_United_States...

[3] https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/why-has-canada-spent-bi...

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#60
post #49
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The presence of US troops in Saudi Arabia was a primary motivation for Bin Laden and 9/11.

This is nothing new, the US has been there since WW2.. Before that the UK. People forget history.

Don’t forget France
Post reply on HN