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Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

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Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#41
post #37

The Sharpe ratio should be mentioned here. It allows an apple to apples comparison between the performance of different assets in terms of expected return against variance (risk). In an efficiently priced market, assets will be priced to lie on a straight line of unit return vs unit risk. The line itself passes through the y-axis (zero risk) at a point called the 'risk free rate'. This is a hypothetical point but a c…

Absolutely. I just focused in finding good weight allocations for the given risk, but changing the objective function given to the negative of the sharpe ratio should get you good allocations that maximize the sharpe ratio.

You'll notice I am returning the expected return and variance of the returns. I didn't talk about it too much (besides a high level risk vs. returns at the end) because I didn't want to introduce another concept, but you can readily compare the sharpe ratio using those.

I did a quick analysis (which I had put here but I can't properly format it) here: https://gist.github.com/scast/d7ab3a0f5c5458c11d8624cc73806d...

Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#42
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Afaik the 1/e solution is only optimal when you don't know anything about the distribution being draw from (but also why it's amazing). Since the author knows the probability distribution the prices are being draw from you can do much better with a little dynamic programming.

It's also solving a different problem: it maximises the when probability that you get the absolute best match, rather than maximising the expected value of your choice.

Furthermore, I suspect it requires that each measurement is independent and identically-distributed.

If your measurements are correlated (as prices generally are -- if they were lower than average yesterday, they are more likely to be lower than average today), the secretary-problem approach will not work.

Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#43
Nintendo was late to dip their toes into f2p game economies and it shows with the poorly balanced bell economy in (farmville-like) Animal Crossing.

Turnips are a terrible way to make bells in the single-player game. You have to buy a stack of them for around 10,000 bells and then wait all week for the market to pop. Let's say you see it pop to 130-160, which is a fairly common range in my experience. For all the hassle of buying and storing turnips (AC's inventory management is high effort and turnips have additional restrictions) you might net 6,000 bells per inventory space. Thing is, Animal Crossing regularly generates bugs and insects which sell for 2,000-8,000 bells. They are also one inventory space, and they are available all the time with no expiration or holding strategy needed. There are also abundant resources like iron ore, where a crafted stack of 30 ore in one inventory space will net you 22,500 bells in profit. Turnips are low value per inventory slot.

To get around this, players coordinated online. Sometimes turnips hit a jackpot price in the 300-600 bell range. So that stack is suddenly worth 60,000 and now we see inventory efficiency worth playing with turnips. All you have to do is join an online group and someone will be having a jackpot day every day. You do have to share profits with the host but the scheme is still worth it.

This is a big economy mistake. 60,000 bells is quite a lot of money in AC, and a backpack full of turnips turns into 2,400,000 bells which is enough money to bypass most of the game. Avg item price is magnitude 3-4 so these are effectively free now. All from doing a single turnip scheme. Of course players will do this with multiple backpack loads and become deep millionaires living off bank account interest.

Nintendo's second mistake was to fix this exploit by attacking a symptom and not the root cause. They reduced interest rates by a magnitude, making it balanced for ppl with huge savings accounts and worthless for anyone playing the game as intended. We of course see the folly in this approach in OPs blog where his wife was punished for playing the game as intended. She is now incentivized to join the turnip schemers, making the problem worse.

Nintendo should either cap the amount of turnips you can sell on a friend's island, reduce the turnip value for island visitors, or disallow visitors selling turnips altogether. Then the bank accounts can remain as is.

Anyone with experience tuning f2p economies would have seen this leak a mile away and prevented it from ever happening. Now Nintendo only has bad options since removing player assets is never an option. Once you leaked you leaked.

Musings from a former f2p economy designer.

Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#44
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's amusing that you mention this, because 'time traveling' appears to be a huge sticking point among fans, with some coming out vigorously against it, almost violently, and 100% in earnest. I've seen people say things like "If you time travel in AC, please unfollow me now." and going as far as writing articles about how time traveling makes you a bad person. I think it's absolutely fascinating. I'm not by a…

> other people are able to accomplish more By cheating, tho'. It's the same as saying people who get rich by dodging taxes or defrauding people are "accomplishing more" than people who play 'fair and square'. (Personally, I don't care if people time travel and island-hop to grind turnips all day - it affects nothing about my game and my experience.) > folks who are ending friendships and getting genuinely angry over…

Can you really "cheat" when there is, as you say, nothing at stake and nothing to gain?

What does cheating even mean then?

Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#45
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Or they might feel that someone who is ok cheating at a zero-stakes, zero-effect game might not be a great person after all. It's the difference between, say, cheating your taxes purely because you want to be rich vs dodging your taxes because you have to feed your family. I don’t cheat at Animal Crossing. No real reason not to, I just don’t feel like it. I am not in a rush or anything. But to me, Animal Crossing i…

> I can’t tell if you are playing devil’s advocate or not Not really - I can well believe that someone could/would view another person who "cheats" (their opinion) at zero stake games to be a less worthy person. I wouldn't personally condemn someone for "cheating" Animal Crossing - I'd think they were missing the point of the game per my perspective, mind, and it would definitely confuse me about their outlook. Same…

Are you against wave-cheating in ssbm?

Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#46
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I can’t tell if you are playing devil’s advocate or not Not really - I can well believe that someone could/would view another person who "cheats" (their opinion) at zero stake games to be a less worthy person. I wouldn't personally condemn someone for "cheating" Animal Crossing - I'd think they were missing the point of the game per my perspective, mind, and it would definitely confuse me about their outlook. Same…

Are you against wave-cheating in ssbm?

I'm assuming SSBM is Super Smash Brothers Melee (had to look it up)? Never played it or any variety of Super Smash Brothers for that matter. As such, I'm not entirely sure I'm qualified to give an opinion ... but that never stopped anyone on HN.

Assuming you mean "wavedashing" (the only vaguely relevant thing I could find), and given that https://www.ssbwiki.com/Wavedash claims it was explicitly left in as a mechanic during development, no, I'd not consider that a "cheat".

Would you?

Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#47
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some feedback, and maybe I'm feeding the troll here, but in case I'm not: It doesn't read like you are asking in good faith. It reads like you are punching down at Animal Crossing fans. (And I certainly read your first comment as insinuating that people who like the game are 'kids or housewives'.) You explicitly ask the reader to apply backwards negative stereotypes to the concept of housewives. Then go on to defend…

Thanks for the feedback. I appreciate it. > It reads like you are punching down at Animal Crossing fans. (And I certainly read your first comment as insinuating that people who like the game are 'kids or housewives'.) I've seen some screenshots and the game characters fit my idea of what kids enjoy. Of course I could be totally wrong... which is why I asked for the views of HN folk. Whether you think that's punching…

> HN is a hell of a bubble, with the vast majority being college-educated Americans.

You're jumping to some major conclusions there. Last I checked the numbers, about half of HN is in the U.S., and of course not all are college educated. HN is more varied than you imagine. It's not just you, of course. It's common for people to imagine that HN is a certain way and then to complain about how that-way it is.

I believe you that your 'housewives' bit wasn't intended the way it sounded, but you can't blame other users for taking it that way. You literally went out of your way to tell them to. Then when they did, you patronized them ("There's no need to try and score social points based on reading in my comment things that aren't there"). That pattern-matches to trolling whether you intended it or not: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...

Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#48
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't sound fun. :/

I think it's amusing that you mention this, because 'time traveling' appears to be a huge sticking point among fans, with some coming out vigorously against it, almost violently, and 100% in earnest. I've seen people say things like "If you time travel in AC, please unfollow me now." and going as far as writing articles about how time traveling makes you a bad person. I think it's absolutely fascinating. I'm not by a…

The reality of Animal Crossing is that it's a PvP game. You compete with the entire world to have the best island for them to come visit or show off on social media. So when people exploit game mechanics to get an unfair advantage, they're outraged. It's the same as someone using an aimbot in an FPS, cheating in a PvP game.

(I personally don't care at all. I am secretly hoping that people are playing this game because they literally have nothing else to do because of COVID-19, and that when people can go outside again, people will not be getting $11,000 a month on Patreon to predict turnip prices. But obviously I am very out of touch on all of this.)

Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That sounds better than I initially assumed based on the character design I've seen in screenshots. Thanks for the description.

Are you this weirdly cynical and judgemental about everything that's new to you? Do you always go out of your way to put barriers in the way of learning new things?

Jesus, what exactly was wrong about the comment you replied to?

Why is there a difference between the character design for a Call of Duty game, or Clash of Clans, or TF2, Minecraft, or Fortnite? Because the designers of those games want us to feel a certain way. That's character design 101.

Most people are put off by the design of Minecraft. Is it cynical and judgemental to state the fact that the entire point of design is to evoke certain feelings, and the game designer knew he was targeting a particular demographic for whom the design would be appealing?

Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#50

Nintendo was late to dip their toes into f2p game economies and it shows with the poorly balanced bell economy in (farmville-like) Animal Crossing. Turnips are a terrible way to make bells in the single-player game. You have to buy a stack of them for around 10,000 bells and then wait all week for the market to pop. Let's say you see it pop to 130-160, which is a fairly common range in my experience. For all the hass…

As someone who is only vaguely aware of AC, this reads like you're insane.
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