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Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset in Disguise

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Re: Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset in Disguise

#171

Post by ThomPete »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #160
xiaolingxiao wrote: post #13

I found this part really interesting: "For dozens of oil producers, the plunge in oil prices is devastating. No major oil producer can balance its budget at prices below $40; according to the International Monetary Fund, with the exception of Qatar, every country in the Middle East requires at least $60, with Algeria at $157 and Iran at a whopping $390. The average Brent price of oil over the past month has been a ha…

This is dramatic, but from on POV it's also overplayed, because virtually every national economy is in the same straits now. Massive government deficit spending everywhere has been keeping furloughed and damaged economies ticking over in the hope that they can somehow be brought back to life in the near future. From another POV the world was on a mad debt-fuelled spending spree, and a lot of the spending was either u…

there is a reason we havent switched to renewables and that is that they are unreliable.

Re: Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset in Disguise

#172

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

ThomPete wrote: post #171
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is dramatic, but from on POV it's also overplayed, because virtually every national economy is in the same straits now. Massive government deficit spending everywhere has been keeping furloughed and damaged economies ticking over in the hope that they can somehow be brought back to life in the near future. From another POV the world was on a mad debt-fuelled spending spree, and a lot of the spending was either u…

there is a reason we havent switched to renewables and that is that they are unreliable.

Only without larger grids and smaller capacities.

In general, generating electricity as close to where you need it is a better idea (because of loss from transmission).

They are not completely reliable for backup, which I think is an under-appreciated point, but nuclear can provide any backup necessary (which i suspect wouldn't be as large as you might think).

Re: Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset in Disguise

#173

Post by jariel »

twomoretime wrote: post #116

People are really optimistic in the industry. I am active in petroleum circles and many are convinced that this is another temporary downturn and we'll always need oil. All I see is public sentiment turning against fossil fuels and an inevitable death for 90% of the industry as we move away from petroleum. We only use something like >20% of raw petroleum for plastic and medicine and such. And the price curve is not l…

5 billion people on planet earth living in poor countries do not care about the negative effects of oil. They are making quite a lot more money and want to buy cars.

If the last 30 years was about the rise of China, the rest of the century is going to be about the rise of 'the rest of the world'.

Pre 2000 it was as if these places didn't exist - they had no money. Just people in huts.

But now they want Hondas and iPhones and there are a lot of them.

The US was 1/3 of the world economy, but less than 10% of it's population. Not it's like 22% of world economy.

This is the 'macro macro' thing that will be the biggest driver of everything.

Re: Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset in Disguise

#174

Post by ThomPete »

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #172
ThomPete wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there is a reason we havent switched to renewables and that is that they are unreliable.

Only without larger grids and smaller capacities. In general, generating electricity as close to where you need it is a better idea (because of loss from transmission). They are not completely reliable for backup, which I think is an under-appreciated point, but nuclear can provide any backup necessary (which i suspect wouldn't be as large as you might think).

point is that they need backup from either nuclear, coal, oil or gas to be reliable, but the very people who want more renewable is normally against nuclear.

Wind and solar is less than 1% of the worlds energy consumption and not expected to be more than 3-4% in 2030 exactly because its not reliable and the more renewable you build the more expensive it becomes as it need one of those or multiple backup sources mentioned above to be reliable.

Re: Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset in Disguise

#175

Post by christophilus »

pmoriarty wrote: post #41

It's times like these that I really wonder where all the oil peak guys are who you used to see crawl out of the woodwork whenever anyone talked about oil. Now they're suddenly quiet. They used to predict doom and gloom due to an oil shortage, but what we got instead was doom and gloom and an oil glut. Where are they now?

When you have a complex system, simplistic projections should be held suspect. The more confident the presenter, the higher the degree of skepticism. This framework has served me well.

Peak oil is inevitable, given the fact that it’s a finite resource. But what its advocates failed to consider was how quickly free markets innovate when the price incentive is high enough.

Re: Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset in Disguise

#176

Post by Fjolsvith »

pm90 wrote: post #99
rckoepke wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Islamic_Republic_of_... (edited to 2017) 79% of their exports is unrefined crude oil. While exports are not always the whole story, in this case it is extremely relevant. If Iran's economy was 99% domestic and 1% trade, (essentially autarkic) then it wouldn't really matter at all what the price of oil is, as Iran makes everything it needs for itself, whether that be aut…

In addition to everything you said, the compounding factor here is that sanctions 1) Make it harder for Iran to take advantage of foreign financial markets and 2) Make it harder for them to get the best value for their exports. Sanctions may not sound very bad but they’re economic warfare on a larger time scale. I felt the world was healing somewhat when the Obama admin eased sanctions on Cuba and got the Iran nuclea…

> I felt the world was healing somewhat when the Obama admin eased sanctions on Cuba and got the Iran nuclear deal where Iran was offered a reasonable path to becoming a part of the global economic system.

I am not an expert on it, but it seems to me that while Iran may have been offered a "path" to join the global economic system, they were not mature enough to "play nice" in the global playground.

Re: Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset in Disguise

#177

Post by dredmorbius »

pas wrote: post #164
ggm wrote: post #37

The shift from coal catapulted.. it took years. First, technology had to shift to oil as a commodity beyond oil bunkers for battleships. Second, the nation states had to get out from ruinously bad national oil deals which also led to the Pahlavi regime, hatred of the British in Iran, the CIA and other bodies. This was not a catapult. It was a long slow dangerous and corrupt slide.

This sounds very important, but somehow very scarcely known. Could you point to some sources about this?

Despite being very much an apologist for and champion of the oil industry, Daniel Yergin's The Prize is outstanding.

Vaclav Smil's Energy and Civilization and books on energy transitions gives a mostly energy-physics and technological bacground on the coal-oil transition (and ag-coal previously). Manfred Weissenbacher's Sources of Power adds in some of the political dimension.

Re: Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset in Disguise

#178

Post by FpUser »

golergka wrote: post #169
FpUser wrote: post #20

given President Putin’s need to demonize the United States I am curious how exactly Putin/Russia are demonizing the US?

Recently, one of the most famous russian movie directors, who's also very close to the government (and also heads a "copyright protection" agency that gets 1% tax on all writeable media - because they could be used, to, you know, pirate movies) said in his own TV show, on state television, that Bill Gates wants to implant chips into people to earn crypto. In general, state media is full of conspiracy theory level of…

Is this the best you can come up with? This is not Russia demonizing the US. This is conspiracy theory coming out of tinfoil hat public from everywhere including US.

Re: Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset in Disguise

#179

Post by itsspring »

boomboomsubban wrote: post #170
divbzero wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Among the good things, George W. Bush contributed more to the fight against HIV/AIDS than any other president. [1] [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President%27s_Emergency_Plan_f...

I can't find the full funding breakdown, but I'd guess Obama contributed more. Purely as he had 8 years to Bush's 5 though.

> to Bush’s 5

How did Bush get a fifth year from a four year presidency?

Re: Oil's Collapse Is a Geopolitical Reset in Disguise

#180

Post by Ericson2314 »

divbzero wrote: post #137
Ericson2314 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also check out the portion of white students who are legacy admits. There is the non-elite "meritocracy" and elite finishing school, side by side. Which are the suckers propping up the other? You tell me.

> the portion of white students who are legacy admits I’m curious to learn more about this. Do you have a good source for this data?

https://qz.com/1713033/at-harvard-43-percent-of-white-studen...
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