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Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

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Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#21
post #20

I was surprised that there was no mention of the secretary problem [1]. Optimal stopping has a whole host of problems and means of evaluating them [2]. I'm curious how this solution compares to just using the 1/e rule. Generally, the 1/e rule in this situation implies you should evaluate prices until Wednesday afternoon for the max sell price up to that point, and then sell the next time you see a price higher than t…

I think something like backward induction could be used here to find a lower-regret but probably more complicated strategy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backward_induction

Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#22
post #20

I was surprised that there was no mention of the secretary problem [1]. Optimal stopping has a whole host of problems and means of evaluating them [2]. I'm curious how this solution compares to just using the 1/e rule. Generally, the 1/e rule in this situation implies you should evaluate prices until Wednesday afternoon for the max sell price up to that point, and then sell the next time you see a price higher than t…

Afaik the 1/e solution is only optimal when you don't know anything about the distribution being draw from (but also why it's amazing). Since the author knows the probability distribution the prices are being draw from you can do much better with a little dynamic programming.

Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#23

I found an island selling for 500 bells and time travelled to sunday and went back and forth selling turnips until I got bored. Netted 15,000,000 bells that way.

This doesn't sound fun. :/

I think it's amusing that you mention this, because 'time traveling' appears to be a huge sticking point among fans, with some coming out vigorously against it, almost violently, and 100% in earnest. I've seen people say things like "If you time travel in AC, please unfollow me now." and going as far as writing articles about how time traveling makes you a bad person.

I think it's absolutely fascinating. I'm not by any means a person with credentials to be doing psychoanalysis, but what it seems like is some people are hurt by the fact that other people are able to accomplish more and benefit from it while they are playing 'fair and square' for almost no practical benefit. It seems like a mix of jealousy and harm to their own feeling of accomplishment.

Which relates to this comment for this reason: I'd argue nothing in this game is really fun on its own. It's a busy work simulator. The only real reward is the end result of having done the work. So I think people derive fun from this game in ways that are unusual for video games. Cheating here feels more like "cheating" in real life, to some.

And if you watch different people play this game, you will see that kind of thing play out. Different people get entirely different things out of Animal Crossing games.

I'd argue folks who are ending friendships and getting genuinely angry over time traveling have an unhealthy attachment, but it feels like unhealthy attachment over fiction and leisure has been on the rise over the past ...decade? or so, and so maybe that's not anything in particular to do with Animal Crossing (though, maybe it is partially to do with quarantine, right now.)

Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#24
post #20

I was surprised that there was no mention of the secretary problem [1]. Optimal stopping has a whole host of problems and means of evaluating them [2]. I'm curious how this solution compares to just using the 1/e rule. Generally, the 1/e rule in this situation implies you should evaluate prices until Wednesday afternoon for the max sell price up to that point, and then sell the next time you see a price higher than t…

Afaik the 1/e solution is only optimal when you don't know anything about the distribution being draw from (but also why it's amazing). Since the author knows the probability distribution the prices are being draw from you can do much better with a little dynamic programming.

It's also solving a different problem: it maximises the when probability that you get the absolute best match, rather than maximising the expected value of your choice.

Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#25
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't sound fun. :/

I think it's amusing that you mention this, because 'time traveling' appears to be a huge sticking point among fans, with some coming out vigorously against it, almost violently, and 100% in earnest. I've seen people say things like "If you time travel in AC, please unfollow me now." and going as far as writing articles about how time traveling makes you a bad person. I think it's absolutely fascinating. I'm not by a…

> other people are able to accomplish more

By cheating, tho'. It's the same as saying people who get rich by dodging taxes or defrauding people are "accomplishing more" than people who play 'fair and square'.

(Personally, I don't care if people time travel and island-hop to grind turnips all day - it affects nothing about my game and my experience.)

> folks who are ending friendships and getting genuinely angry over time traveling have an unhealthy attachment

Or they might feel that someone who is ok cheating at a zero-stakes, zero-effect game might not be a great person after all. It's the difference between, say, cheating your taxes purely because you want to be rich vs dodging your taxes because you have to feed your family.

Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#26
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is so much to unpack in your high effort, low value comment. Google the game, watch some "let's play"s. Keep your weird "housewives" stereotypes to yourself, its 2020.

> Keep your weird "housewives" stereotypes to yourself, its 2020. FYI, I'm a house-husband. Imagine the stereotype, and yes, that's me. Stereotypes are useful. I know what games my mother-in-law plays, and what games appeal to her (bejewelled, etc) and others like her. These wonderful people do exist... they make up a lot of the generation that made us, much as you'd rather like to sweep them under the carpet. They h…

> I don't want to know what random gamers think about the game.

I bought a Gamecube back in 2004 specifically to play Animal Crossing when it (finally!) got its EU release. If I hadn't already had access to a Switch (and they weren't in zero supply in the UK right now), I'd have bought one specifically for this version too.

I don't really have a good description of it - it's whatever you want it to be. Want to design and plan your island down to individual blocks? Sure, go nuts. Want to expand your house and make every room its own consistent theme? All yours. Want to keep your house at the first level and just wander around enjoying your villagers? Again, perfectly fine. Want to grind and min/max and algorithmise your turnips in order to never run out of money? The world's your tarantula.

You get the idea. It's whatever you bring to it.

Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#27
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Keep your weird "housewives" stereotypes to yourself, its 2020. FYI, I'm a house-husband. Imagine the stereotype, and yes, that's me. Stereotypes are useful. I know what games my mother-in-law plays, and what games appeal to her (bejewelled, etc) and others like her. These wonderful people do exist... they make up a lot of the generation that made us, much as you'd rather like to sweep them under the carpet. They h…

Not sure what that tribe is. As you seem to be serious, and insistent, my perception of the game was that it was rather limited. Most of the enjoyment comes from the social interactions it offers.

> my perception of the game was that it was rather limited

I guess it depends on your viewpoint. For me, something like Doom Eternal (multi-GB, huge worlds, etc.) is much more limited than Animal Crossing because everything is plotted out; go from A to Z, via C if you have the mangle of pointy, kill demons, done. It's extremely well-done but wafer-thin in depth. Animal Crossing, on the other hand, has a tiny world, looks kinda like My First Kawaii RPG, but enough depth for months of play.

Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#28
I tried one of the Stalk Market Predictors based on Ninji's decompiled algorithm and it was awful. Didn't get a single day right as we went through the week. Suggested a high of 500-600 on Friday, highest all week was 163.

Which isn't down to the code, I should add, but more that they don't (yet?) know how many times the random generator can be spun outside of the turnip price price setting which obviously makes their predictions very finger in the wind.

Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#29
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Keep your weird "housewives" stereotypes to yourself, its 2020. FYI, I'm a house-husband. Imagine the stereotype, and yes, that's me. Stereotypes are useful. I know what games my mother-in-law plays, and what games appeal to her (bejewelled, etc) and others like her. These wonderful people do exist... they make up a lot of the generation that made us, much as you'd rather like to sweep them under the carpet. They h…

Some feedback, and maybe I'm feeding the troll here, but in case I'm not: It doesn't read like you are asking in good faith. It reads like you are punching down at Animal Crossing fans. (And I certainly read your first comment as insinuating that people who like the game are 'kids or housewives'.) You explicitly ask the reader to apply backwards negative stereotypes to the concept of housewives. Then go on to defend…

Thanks for the feedback. I appreciate it.

> It reads like you are punching down at Animal Crossing fans. (And I certainly read your first comment as insinuating that people who like the game are 'kids or housewives'.)

I've seen some screenshots and the game characters fit my idea of what kids enjoy. Of course I could be totally wrong... which is why I asked for the views of HN folk. Whether you think that's punching down depends on whether you think kids and housewives are beneath you. To me they're just a different demographic from the one I'm in.

> You explicitly ask the reader to apply backwards negative stereotypes to the concept of housewives.

I'm sure you can tell that I'm not very articulate. Still, I'm not sure how you came to that conclusion. I'm not asking the reader to think negatively of women, whether they be housewives or not. If anything, I'm exposing myself as a backwards jerk who holds negative views of women who tend to the home.

> We aren't your tribe. HN readership comes from all walks.

I very much doubt that. How long have you been here? HN is a hell of a bubble, with the vast majority being college-educated Americans. Basically a sliver of a sliver of a sliver of the world population.

Still, thank you for the feedback. Seriously. I need to be more mindful of cultural differences and avoid saying things that trigger Americans.

Re: Speculating on the Animal Crossing Turnip Market

#30
post #18
post #7

One detail I didn’t see that affects the risk profile is that every island in AC is their own market and you can buy and sell turnips on other people’s islands. You can afford to be far more risky than the model suggests if you have a few friends or an active Discord group because on any given day you can almost surely find an island with a profitable price if you need it in a pinch.

See also the Turnip Exchange[0], which has set up automated queue systems for people to visit other people's islands to buy and sell turnips, and now appears to be expanding into other AC:NH trade. It's been super impressive to watch how quickly the devs there have built out really useful features, and managed the growth in interest - pretty sure the Turnip Exchange Discord is >22,000 people. [0]: https://turnip.exch…

considering their patreon currently gives them $11k a month I'd say yes they have interest.
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