Earlier quoted context omitted.
“I’m counting” deaths by the sources I linked. The article is figuring 9x-44x worse by taking the worst week of covid and comparing to same week of seasonal flu. I’ll rephrase my original downvoted question, do you think there will be 10-30* million deaths of covid this year? If not - then the 9x-44x is total bullshit.
You likely won't because of the actions people are taking, so there won't be as many people who actually get the disease. There were nearly 200 thousand confirmed deaths from Covid-19 worldwide in April, and that's with much of the world under lockdown. There would be many many more without the lockdown.
Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges
161–170 of 183 posts
Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges
#162Earlier quoted context omitted.
“I’m counting” deaths by the sources I linked. The article is figuring 9x-44x worse by taking the worst week of covid and comparing to same week of seasonal flu. I’ll rephrase my original downvoted question, do you think there will be 10-30* million deaths of covid this year? If not - then the 9x-44x is total bullshit.
You likely won't because of the actions people are taking, so there won't be as many people who actually get the disease. There were nearly 200 thousand confirmed deaths from Covid-19 worldwide in April, and that's with much of the world under lockdown. There would be many many more without the lockdown.
Edit: can’t reply directly, but I’d like to see something more than an alarmist article from March 8th. Maybe a recent study? Maybe ANY projection that supports the claim? On March 8th we didn’t know most people that get it will remain asymptomatic.
Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges
#163Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Does this mean ppl aren't following the guidelines properly ? Yes, most likely. Folks still have to go out for groceries. Essential workers spread it to their families. The city had to close down various beaches and trails because people weren't staying far enough apart. etc. etc. etc.
So if make groceries pickup only and hefty fines/jail times for flouting guidelines. We would've had lockdown only for 2 weeks, in theory?
1. It effectively reduces your population.
Not everyone can stay home, because we still have stuff that has to get done, but say 80-90% of your population can stay home, because they're retired or they have a white collar job that allows them to work from home or because they're children and school is closed or because they've been fired because no one is buying what their job is selling.
This means that instead of 85% of your population needing to catch the disease for it to burn itself out, you're only waiting for it to go through 85% of 10% of your population before it burns itself out. (Unfortunately, because that 10% includes the people who take care of the 0.5% of the population that is most vulnerable, this still kind of sucks for that 0.5%, and you're really waiting for it to go through like 10.5% of your population.)
You'll still see increasing deaths during a lock-down until all of the grocery store workers and doctors and firefighters who are still pretty exposed out in the world catch it and some of them die. This also sucks and is kind of unfair, especially since some of the jobs which are pretty essential weren't particularly great before the pandemic.
2. It effectively reduces the R0 of the disease even among the essential personnel.
The R0 of a disease (last estimated at 5.7 for the coronavirus) is not constant, but depends on the conditions it is spreading in. Even among the essential personnel still out there risking exposure, the R0 is lower with everything shut down than it would be without the lock down, because the lock down still reduces the number of people each essential worker comes into contact with on a given day. Dropping off packages at a hundred doors a day puts you in marginal contact with a lot of people, but it's still less than if you did that and then went out to a bar and a restaurant and a movie afterwards.
Suppose the lock down is dropping the R0 among the active population from 5.7 to 2; that's still not great, but that means that instead of 85% of the 10% of the population still out in the world catching the disease, only 50% of the 10% will be expected to catch it. This is more awesome and less unfair, and also protects the vulnerable populations that come into contact with the essential workforce.
So our imperfect lock downs don't stop the disease cold in its tracks, but it does probably reduce the number of people we expect to catch it from 85% of the population to -- if we're lucky -- 5% of the population.
Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges
#164Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges
#165Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, I don’t think I am missing that. Which is why I used those words. I have no doubt covid is worse than flu and have no issue with being more cautious than reckless. But if you can find me a model that shows we’re no where near peak deaths and are still looking to 9 to 44 times more, I’d like to see that. Edit: anyone? Sources? Models?
The finding that in like periods in April this year compared to previous years Covid-19 has killed from 9 to 44 times as many people is a historical fact, not a projection. As for peak deaths, the number of people dying each day is still going up. We don’t need a fancy statistical model to tell us this means we haven’t reached peak deaths yet.
Do you think there will be 10-30 million covid deaths this year?
Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges
#166Earlier quoted context omitted.
The finding that in like periods in April this year compared to previous years Covid-19 has killed from 9 to 44 times as many people is a historical fact, not a projection. As for peak deaths, the number of people dying each day is still going up. We don’t need a fancy statistical model to tell us this means we haven’t reached peak deaths yet.
Do you think it’s legitimate to take covid single worst week, compare to a week of flu and extrapolate our 9 to 44x worse? Do you think there will be 10-30 million covid deaths this year?
Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges
#167Earlier quoted context omitted.
The finding that in like periods in April this year compared to previous years Covid-19 has killed from 9 to 44 times as many people is a historical fact, not a projection. As for peak deaths, the number of people dying each day is still going up. We don’t need a fancy statistical model to tell us this means we haven’t reached peak deaths yet.
Do you think it’s legitimate to take covid single worst week, compare to a week of flu and extrapolate our 9 to 44x worse? Do you think there will be 10-30 million covid deaths this year?
I have no idea what the world is going to do over the next 8 months, or what effect it's going to have. Do you?
Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges
#168Earlier quoted context omitted.
You likely won't because of the actions people are taking, so there won't be as many people who actually get the disease. There were nearly 200 thousand confirmed deaths from Covid-19 worldwide in April, and that's with much of the world under lockdown. There would be many many more without the lockdown.
Can you find a single source anywhere that modeled or even causally expected 10 to 30 million deaths without lockdown? Edit: can’t reply directly, but I’d like to see something more than an alarmist article from March 8th. Maybe a recent study? Maybe ANY projection that supports the claim? On March 8th we didn’t know most people that get it will remain asymptomatic.
If you expect 60% of the world to get it and it has a 1% fatality rate that's 46.8 million deaths.
edit:Professor Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, is an expert on coronavirus epidemics and played a key role during the SARS outbreak in 2002 and 2003.
It wasn't an alarmist article, it's an article about a projection by Professor Gabriel Leung. I'm going to be honest, at this point I don't think you're going to accept anything, and I don't feel like wasting my time.
Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges
#169Earlier quoted context omitted.
One question I have is how many of these excess deaths is due to coronavirus and how many are due to our response to coronavirus since people are not getting their regular health care. For example, my dad has congestive heart failure and sees his doctor once a month and gets an EKG every time. I've been in appointments and the majority of the discussion centers around changes in his EKGs from the previous months. Rig…
In the UK about half the excess deaths don't mention COVID at all on the death certificate. Of those that do, a very high proportion are extremely old, i.e. they died with the disease rather than of it. If you take that into account the lockdown kills far more healthy people than COVID.
It seems to me that lock-down is very unlikely to be the thing that is killing people.
Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges
#170Flu or not, it's possible to compare all-cause mortality this year against previous years. That's about as hard data as it gets. How does Covid compare to "seasonal all-cause-winter-deaths"? That's what people are interested in - how unprecedented is the death rate?
The question I have yet to see posed is "How would society be experiencing the common flu if it had never existed before and this is the first time it jumps to humans?" The first year you see an airborne transmissible disease is likely to be the worst regardless of the disease. The big problem I see is that we're comparing the common flu in its herd immunity steady state to the coronavirus in its first year. Once cor…