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Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

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Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#91

Post by simonh »

Fjolsvith wrote: post #65
ceejayoz wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's possible, and it's being done. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/corona... > The recent death count reached six times the normal number of deaths for the city at this time of year, a surge in deaths much larger than what could be attributed to normal seasonal variations from influenza, heart disease or other more common causes. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... >…

> These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number has spiked to six times the normal amount. I'm betting that in the next few years the death rate will drastically fall because the only people left will be really h…

Except that people who survive severe illness with Covid-19 often seem to suffer severe organ damage as a result. Mortality among Covid survivors is therefore likely to be higher than normal in the coming years, so it’s unclear how the numbers will pan out.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#92

Post by greedo »

ceejayoz wrote: post #64
Mary-Jane wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what's the point of wearing masks then?

SARS-CoV-2 is spread by droplets, which fall to the ground rapidly. Masks catch a lot of these, and slow down the rest. When coupled with six foot distancing, that has a major impact. Airborne transmission means the virus hangs out in the air for an extended period of time. SARS-CoV-2 does not do this. Stuff like measles does.

Actually, SARS-CoV-2 is aerosolized.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#93

Post by [deleted] »

smnrchrds wrote: post #79
Fjolsvith wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number has spiked to six times the normal amount. I'm betting that in the next few years the death rate will drastically fall because the only people left will be really h…

If it is killing people a couple of years earlier than they otherwise would have died, it is fair to consider them excess deaths.

[deleted]

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#94

Post by ceejayoz »

Fjolsvith wrote: post #85
recursive wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's possible to get infected even if you're following the guidelines. For example, essential workers may get infected by a carrier performing essential activities.

Doesn't lend credibility for suggesting lock-downs for future pandemics. Yay.

I don't think that's fair.

Lockdowns have successfully helped flatten the curve - changing spread from exponential to linear. That's worth something.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#95

Post by harryh »

Fjolsvith wrote: post #65
ceejayoz wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's possible, and it's being done. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/corona... > The recent death count reached six times the normal number of deaths for the city at this time of year, a surge in deaths much larger than what could be attributed to normal seasonal variations from influenza, heart disease or other more common causes. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... >…

> These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number has spiked to six times the normal amount. I'm betting that in the next few years the death rate will drastically fall because the only people left will be really h…

I will take that bet! I'd say that "drastically" means 20% or more. How much would you like to wager?

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#96

Post by ceejayoz »

greedo wrote: post #92
ceejayoz wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SARS-CoV-2 is spread by droplets, which fall to the ground rapidly. Masks catch a lot of these, and slow down the rest. When coupled with six foot distancing, that has a major impact. Airborne transmission means the virus hangs out in the air for an extended period of time. SARS-CoV-2 does not do this. Stuff like measles does.

Actually, SARS-CoV-2 is aerosolized.

No, it's not.

It can be in certain medical procedures, like intubation. (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765376)

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#97

Post by nradov »

ceejayoz wrote: post #32
HPsquared wrote: post #25

Flu or not, it's possible to compare all-cause mortality this year against previous years. That's about as hard data as it gets. How does Covid compare to "seasonal all-cause-winter-deaths"? That's what people are interested in - how unprecedented is the death rate?

It's possible, and it's being done. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/corona... > The recent death count reached six times the normal number of deaths for the city at this time of year, a surge in deaths much larger than what could be attributed to normal seasonal variations from influenza, heart disease or other more common causes. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... >…

> These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway.

This is known as mortality displacement or the harvesting effect. We won't actually know whether this was a significant factor until we see future all-cause mortality statistics.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#98

Post by snarf21 »

bjt2n3904 wrote: post #67

As interesting as this article is... you absolutely can compare Covid-19 deaths to Flu Deaths. It's a far better comparison than, say, the people who note that we are having a 9/11 Terrorist Attack every day. I think the fear is that people will look at the death toll alone -- but if you include timespan as a point of comparison, it becomes very helpful to developing an understanding. But as long as we're suddenly co…

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - made popular by Mark Twain.

Which as you point out, context matters, detail matters. You can make any point you want given enough caveats.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#99

Post by makomk »

DanBC wrote: post #82
makomk wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, but the article is doing the exact same thing with the flu, except probably even worse because we're not systematically testing people for the flu in the same way that we are Covid-19.

You don't need to systematically test people in order to assign their death as a flu death. We have many different ways of counting deaths. We either count the people who had a test; or we count death certificates; or we do surveillance to see what respiratory illnesses are circulating and how many people are searching google for flu-like symptoms and how many people are attending primary care and ED for flu-like sym…

The whole point of the article is to argue that those flu deaths are "wildly inflated statistical estimates" and not real flu deaths in the same way that Covid-19 deaths - where we are systematically testing increasingly wide-ranging groups of people who are hospitalized or even just in care homes - are real Covid-19 deaths. That the only apples-to-apples comparison is not to statistically compensate for the lack of flu testing at all and only compare tested, confirmed cases.

It's obvious just from comparing the numbers in the article to the ones in the comment I'm replying to that lack of testing has a much, much bigger effect on confirmed flu numbers than confirmed Covid-19 ones - confirmed Covid-19 deaths are at 2/3 to 1/2 of excess deaths, whereas confirmed flu is at 1/4 to 1/8th of estimated flu deaths, and the flu estimate does more work to exclude unrelated deaths than just counting raw excess deaths would. The supposedly apples-to-apples comparisons in the article looks to be even less directly comparable than the apples-to-oranges one it's rejecting.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#100

Post by Fjolsvith »

smnrchrds wrote: post #79
Fjolsvith wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number has spiked to six times the normal amount. I'm betting that in the next few years the death rate will drastically fall because the only people left will be really h…

If it is killing people a couple of years earlier than they otherwise would have died, it is fair to consider them excess deaths.

Are you counting more than one death per person?
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