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Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

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Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#71

Post by bmat »

fullshark wrote: post #30
bmat wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point was comparing reported COVID deaths to statistically extrapolated flu deaths is apples to oranges. What you quoted was a comparison of reported deaths to reported deaths.

I think comparing just reported deaths is probably even worse, the rate of undercounting of flu deaths and undercounting of covid deaths (in a pandemic with a ton of testing / heightened observation) is not going to be comparable.

Definitely. My takeaway is we should be skeptical of any comparison between COVID and flu statistics.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#72

Post by HarryHirsch »

addicted wrote: post #35
HPsquared wrote: post #25

Flu or not, it's possible to compare all-cause mortality this year against previous years. That's about as hard data as it gets. How does Covid compare to "seasonal all-cause-winter-deaths"? That's what people are interested in - how unprecedented is the death rate?

If you count excess deaths, globally where we have data, official Coronavirus deaths are always about half or 2/3rds the excess death. In other words, it’s likely we are undercounting deaths caused by COVID by a factor of 1.5 to 2 in places which are actually properly tracking COVID deaths.

You also have this effect where this year diagnosed cases of heart attacks and appendicitis are lower than last year. Can't blame people for not showing up at the hospital because that's where the plague is. This kind of excess death where people with serious conditions avoid hospital because of fear of disease isn't coronavirus but clearly caused by coronavirus.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#73

Post by ravenstine »

m1117 wrote: post #3

Why can't we compare apples and oranges? They're fruit. They have nutritions. I don't like this metaphor.

The metaphor can apply to some things, but there's no good reason as far as I can tell for us to not compare COVID-19 to influenza. Experts desperately want to be right, so they're going to publish articles like this, which are effectively saying "Hey! Look at my shiny penny!"

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#74

Post by makomk »

addicted wrote: post #35
HPsquared wrote: post #25

Flu or not, it's possible to compare all-cause mortality this year against previous years. That's about as hard data as it gets. How does Covid compare to "seasonal all-cause-winter-deaths"? That's what people are interested in - how unprecedented is the death rate?

If you count excess deaths, globally where we have data, official Coronavirus deaths are always about half or 2/3rds the excess death. In other words, it’s likely we are undercounting deaths caused by COVID by a factor of 1.5 to 2 in places which are actually properly tracking COVID deaths.

Maybe, but the article is doing the exact same thing with the flu, except probably even worse because we're not systematically testing people for the flu in the same way that we are Covid-19.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#75

Post by derriz »

HPsquared wrote: post #25

Flu or not, it's possible to compare all-cause mortality this year against previous years. That's about as hard data as it gets. How does Covid compare to "seasonal all-cause-winter-deaths"? That's what people are interested in - how unprecedented is the death rate?

This was posted here recently: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

It only covers Europe but effects of Covid-19 are easy to see. For example during the peak, about 85,000 Europeans were dying per week as opposed to the normal range of 50-55K.

I don't know of a source for non-European countries unfortunately.

Until there is an international cooperation to standardize how Covid19 deaths are counted, these type of numbers are all we have for international and historic comparison.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#76

Post by allannienhuis »

wyck wrote: post #16

Article critiques data set and gives zero details on the CDC calculation methodology, and provides zero relevance to any new or interesting data analysis, but it surely mentioned Trump a few times. A simple Google search will provide you with actual data sets, nationally, state wide, and even globally, by very competent scientists, some of whom have studied this specifically for decades. There are various places you…

so, how are his conclusions different than the research you're referring to?

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#77

Post by dominotw »

ceejayoz wrote: post #47
dominotw wrote: post #29

I have a simple covid related question, hopefully someone can answer this here. We have been under lockdown for over 6 weeks here in chicago. But chicago had highest number of deaths all of this week[1]. If we were under lockdown 6 weeks ago how did the people who died this week get infected. Does this mean ppl aren't following the guidelines properly ? I feel like I am missing something obvious here. 1. https://chic…

> Does this mean ppl aren't following the guidelines properly ? Yes, most likely. Folks still have to go out for groceries. Essential workers spread it to their families. The city had to close down various beaches and trails because people weren't staying far enough apart. etc. etc. etc.

So if make groceries pickup only and hefty fines/jail times for flouting guidelines. We would've had lockdown only for 2 weeks, in theory?

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#78

Post by bonzini »

ceejayoz wrote: post #64
Mary-Jane wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what's the point of wearing masks then?

SARS-CoV-2 is spread by droplets, which fall to the ground rapidly. Masks catch a lot of these, and slow down the rest. When coupled with six foot distancing, that has a major impact. Airborne transmission means the virus hangs out in the air for an extended period of time. SARS-CoV-2 does not do this. Stuff like measles does.

And partly because of that measles has an absolutely insane R0 (15). This is also why for measles vaccination it is harder to reach herd immunity than with other vaccination: the required amount of vaccinated people is 1-1/R0, which for measles is 95% roughly.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#79

Post by smnrchrds »

Fjolsvith wrote: post #65
ceejayoz wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's possible, and it's being done. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/corona... > The recent death count reached six times the normal number of deaths for the city at this time of year, a surge in deaths much larger than what could be attributed to normal seasonal variations from influenza, heart disease or other more common causes. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... >…

> These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number has spiked to six times the normal amount. I'm betting that in the next few years the death rate will drastically fall because the only people left will be really h…

If it is killing people a couple of years earlier than they otherwise would have died, it is fair to consider them excess deaths.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#80

Post by Diederich »

Pxtl wrote: post #59
HPsquared wrote: post #25

Flu or not, it's possible to compare all-cause mortality this year against previous years. That's about as hard data as it gets. How does Covid compare to "seasonal all-cause-winter-deaths"? That's what people are interested in - how unprecedented is the death rate?

One problem with comparing excess deaths is that automotive traffic deaths are down, and automotive traffic deaths are a very large slice of the pie in many countries (including the USA).

There were about 2.8 million total deaths in the United States in 2019 compared to about 40 thousand motor vehicle deaths.
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