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A case for ending lockdown

ryankemper.io

211–220 of 381 posts

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#211
post #190

> I’m a software / site reliability engineer okay, thanks. Seriously, the list of scientist and medical organizations advising through this period is so long, I don't know why anyone who isn't at equally experienced tries to counter-claim their insights. I'm not saying we shouldn't do our own research and arrive at our own conclusion, but if you arrive at a different conclusion, you're almost certainly the one whose…

That seems to be classical ad hominem. For example, I also don't have medical education, yet I am entitled to analyze information and insist that homeopathy, Chinese medicine and chlorine necklaces absolutely do not help against the virus, unlike the educated medical professionals who disagree with me.

Most educated medical professionals absolutely agree that homeopathy, Chinese medicine and chlorine necklaces do not help against the virus [except to the limited degree placebos are useful].

A software reliability engineer citing LessWrong and reddit to argue epidemiologists fundamentally misunderstand how to do epidemiology is much closer to the instinctive contrarianism of the average defender of homeopathy....

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#212
> About me

> I’m a software / site reliability engineer based out of Santa Barbara, California.

People need to stop chiming in on subjects on which they are not experts.

Ryan, as a site reliability engineer, I know you’re annoyed annoyed when people on the street talk to you about your job and misinterpret just about everything about how technology works.

I had a potential customer of my employer express interest (based on me wearing corporate swag in a public place), ask some questions that became semi-technical, then go on to completely equate being hosted on a cloud service as not having any privacy or security measures or control over our data, completely misinterpreting my answers.

This is what you’re doing to doctors and epidemiologists, and whatever other people do scientific research on viruses. And now your personal blog post has spread its influence far enough to be seen by hundreds if not thousands of people who will latch on to your non-expert opinions.

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#213

> I’m a software / site reliability engineer okay, thanks. Seriously, the list of scientist and medical organizations advising through this period is so long, I don't know why anyone who isn't at equally experienced tries to counter-claim their insights. I'm not saying we shouldn't do our own research and arrive at our own conclusion, but if you arrive at a different conclusion, you're almost certainly the one whose…

I’ve started explicitly telling people in my life that I’m not interested in their non-expert opinions when they weigh in on when we should open up.

Do you tell that to everyone, as soon as they open their mouth with a thought, or only the folks who suggest we should ease the lockdown sooner?

It would be interesting on HN if we developed a habit of interrogating everyone for their credentials and shouting them down immediately if they're just another software engineer.

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Are we really going to isolate or quarantine 4 out of 10 US adults and imagine the economy can get back on track?" Better than everyone pulling their hair out at home. Plus, why not have people choose themselves whether they're healthy enough to take chances and go out to work?

> Plus, why not have people choose themselves whether they're healthy enough to take chances and go out to work? Three reasons immediately spring to mind: 1. It's a very well established fact that C19 can transmitted by asymptomatic people. "Healthy enough" does not mean "safe" 2. Ignoring that fact, I know can personally name several people who would absolutely go to work sick. 3. I've have several employers who wou…

Legally you won't be fired for not coming in. You might be laid off with no severance, but that is different legally. When someone asks they will not give a bad reference and you will be eligible for unemployment, both of which are useful. If the above is not true for you there are many lawyers who would love to talk to you, as it is an easy buck for both of you in court.

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#215
post #183

The premise of this post is extremely flawed: > Weeks and months later, facts on the ground show that the purported collapse of the healthcare system did not occur. Yes, because we locked down population centers quickly. That's the whole point. ICUs have still been over capacity though. Without the lockdowns, it's obvious we'd have a lot more dead people the past month. > Moreover, this was not due to success in seri…

this is a good example of people saying the response was overblown, because the response had its intended effect

My other favorite example is y2k. New Years 2000 came and went and the world didn’t end. Was y2k overblown hysteria, or did we take it seriously and do the work necessary to prevent catastrophic system failure? Probably a little hysteria involved, sure, but I don’t think anyone here would argue we should have just let systems go unpatched and hoped for the best.

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#216
If you're going to write a 7500 word article on why most experts are wrong about a subject, you should probably start by providing the reader with some reason to care about what you have to say. Writing with this authoritative tone and no disclaimer as to your lack of expertise and knowledge in any relevant field is dangerously irresponsible.

Further, insisting that every reader fully read your treatise and evaluate the claims and arguments "on the merits" is unrealistic, unfair, and fails to acknowledge that virtually all of them also lack the expertise to be able to do so.

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#217

> Encourage at-risk groups to self quarantine, and utilize testing to protect them...Those with obesity and COPD Author suggests self-quarantine for the obese instead of quarantine/lockdown for everyone. The CDC suggests that +42% of the US adult population is obese [0]. Are we really going to isolate or quarantine 4 out of 10 US adults and imagine the economy can get back on track? [0]: https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/d…

Also, advocates of re-opening vastly overestimate their ability to make that happen. I don’t feel safe going outside, so any suggestion that for the good of the economy I should do so will be met with a string of naughty words and continued quarantine on my part. If they want me to go back out and resume regular economic activity, they need to focus on what’ll make that feel safe again.

> I don’t feel safe going outside

Why? So long as you're not close to other people there's no risk in being outside.

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#218

The premise of this post is extremely flawed: > Weeks and months later, facts on the ground show that the purported collapse of the healthcare system did not occur. Yes, because we locked down population centers quickly. That's the whole point. ICUs have still been over capacity though. Without the lockdowns, it's obvious we'd have a lot more dead people the past month. > Moreover, this was not due to success in seri…

Yeah, if you model New York with an appropriate epidemiological model using just mortality (which is more reliable than cases), the lockdown event is massive and trivial to detect. Anyone who claims otherwise is either dishonest or foolish.

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#219
post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, advocates of re-opening vastly overestimate their ability to make that happen. I don’t feel safe going outside, so any suggestion that for the good of the economy I should do so will be met with a string of naughty words and continued quarantine on my part. If they want me to go back out and resume regular economic activity, they need to focus on what’ll make that feel safe again.

That can change very quickly once the fearmongering on the news stops reaching you. Here in Hong Kong, people who were obsessively sterilizing everything and were scared to go outside 2 weeks ago are now taking off their masks and going to the beach.

That is not because they've stopped listening to "fearmongering", but because the thing to fear - new infections - has receded! https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/society/article/3081701/...

By the sound of it most people are wearing masks most of the time.

(Boilerplate warning about news reliability in nonfree countries)

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#220

I just hate these blogs saying this virus is akin to the the flu. Does the flu leave bodies in trucks, apartments, and bagged on the streets? Does the flu kill dozens of workers in meat processing plants every year. Does the flu take more than ten years of life from the average person it kills? Also, suicide death rates are still wildly unknown but deaths by traffic fatalities are way down. We need to get help to peo…

> I just hate these blogs saying this virus is akin to the the flu Author here. That's a mischaracterization of what I said. But yes it is true that overall mortality is similar to the flu. I settled on COVID-19 being 3x as deadly, but that figure is up to debate. The important thing to understand is the varying risk profiles. The flu kills the very young and very old, whereas COVID-19 primarily kills the very old. >…

Comparing COVID-19 to a "Pandemic Flu" is even more disingenuous. Very few people alive today have a memory of the Spanish Flu. When you say that you play into Republican hands because everyone who "wants to believe" will think regular flu. That's what the Fox Newses are pushing, as you are well aware.

Mortality rate for the "regular flu" are well under the mortality rate for ALL age groups except the under 20 folks. (https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=seasonal+flu+death+rate+by+...)

The regular flu does NOT kill significantly more young people than COVID-19. The number of young people killed by either is almost a statistical outlier when comparing against overall deaths.

> Could you clarify this point?

COVID-19 deaths take away far more wellbeing-years per death than the regular flu. (https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75/v1)

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