Tesla Q1 2020 Update • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#231

Post by megablast » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 1:43 AM UTC

axguscbklp wrote: post #99

chollida1 wrote: post #2

Since, things are slow, my notes.... Misc: - Fremont plant idle since March 23rd - raised 2.3B in February, which seems really well timed now - Musk venting with "FREE AMERICA NOW" tweet makes him seem almost crazy - can see why Elon is going crazy on twitter, he'd almost turned around Telsa and now they may be in the worst cash crunch of their long life - Shanghai Giga reopened on Feb 10th, showing the importance of…

Musk might just be venting on Twitter, as another commenter has suggested, but one way or another these tweets might turn out to benefit him. From what I can tell based on both personal and online interactions, it seems to me that U.S. public sentiment has been shifting against the lockdowns recently - and not just among some fringe protester groups, but among all kinds of demographically and ideologically different…

> From what I can tell based on both personal and online interactions, it seems to me that U.S. public sentiment has been shifting against the lockdowns recently

People who talk like this should never be trusted.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#232

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 1:46 AM UTC

BurningFrog wrote: post #223

gamblor956 wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk is worth $38.5 billion based on his current Tesla stock holdings at their current valuation. If he hits the trigger in his compensation package, he gets even more Tesla stock which will vastly increase his net worth on paper Also, Musk is loaded with debt because he leveraged his stock holdings to live a very lavish lifestyle, including multiple residential properties, vehicles, and very expensive dining choices…

This might make sense for $38.5 million . For $38.5 billion, no lifestyle choice in the world has any impact on that money.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#233

Post by mhh__ » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 1:54 AM UTC

Melting_Harps wrote: post #217

wilg wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it so much to ask for him to tweet responsibly so we can enjoy the fun future stuff without all the bullshit?

> Is it so much to ask for him to tweet responsibly so we can enjoy the fun future stuff without all the bullshit? I don't know, that rave cave in Berlin sounds pretty awesome, and that was from a tweet. The Pedo thing was in poor taste, sure, but they got Tesla guys working on a sub to get some kids out of the cave, so you have to see the positive outweighing the negative. Besides, he won that case and no one here c…

> The Pedo thing was in poor taste, sure

Poor taste is one thing, potentially ruining someone's life is another.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#234

Post by gpm » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 1:54 AM UTC

Zenbit_UX wrote: post #117

tempestn wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Change in stock price on earnings news tends to correlate to the performance relative to expectations . The estimated performance is already priced in, so the movement will be based on how much better or worse the actual results were than the estimated/anticipated ones. In this case, it was obviously a bad quarter for Tesla, but the bump suggests that traders expected it to be even worse.

> but the bump suggests that traders expected it to be even worse. You're a bit too kind with your wording, it doesn't _suggests_ so much as it literally _means_ that. Plenty of websites show you what investors are expecting, if Tesla says more/less price fluctuates accordingly.

> Plenty of websites show you what investors are expecting

Yes and no. Plenty of websites make predictions. Most money in the market however is controlled by institutions that don't tell you shit about what they are expecting or anything else that they aren't legally required to tell you.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#235

Post by gustavo-fring » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 1:55 AM UTC

Melting_Harps wrote: post #217

wilg wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it so much to ask for him to tweet responsibly so we can enjoy the fun future stuff without all the bullshit?

> Is it so much to ask for him to tweet responsibly so we can enjoy the fun future stuff without all the bullshit? I don't know, that rave cave in Berlin sounds pretty awesome, and that was from a tweet. The Pedo thing was in poor taste, sure, but they got Tesla guys working on a sub to get some kids out of the cave, so you have to see the positive outweighing the negative. Besides, he won that case and no one here c…

To be clear, he tried to destroy an innocent man/hero's life because said guy dared criticize his attempt to take the glory for himself. He then doubled and tripled down on it and hired a fraudulent private investigator to prove it (he did not). There are those of us that care very much and find actions like that horrific, but we're in the silent minority apparently. It struck me as the actions of a sociopath.

Why do you feel like that is appropriate behavior?

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#236

Post by vgchh » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 1:56 AM UTC

GhostVII wrote: post #225

vgchh wrote: post #186

Serious question: I am confused as to why do we see so many comments lamenting, what is essentially freedom of speech of EM? I mean, it's not like he is conclusively wrong about "Free America Now" comment. He may be proven wrong over time or even right.

I think that it is a valid opinion to think that we should lift the lockdown - there is a huge cost to the shutdown, and flattening the curve was originally just to keep the hospitals below capacity, which they seem to be. However in the context of his other tweets, it seems irresponsible. He is retweeting conspiracy theories that hospitals are reporting cases of COVID for profit, and even made predictions they by th…

I would love to know why you think it's a conspiracy theory that hospitals are reporting cases of COVID for profit. It's not like healthcare has never gamed the system. Not saying you are wrong, but it's a possibility that they indeed gamed the system. If he has made predictions that we will have 0 cases by end of April, that's just clearly brain-dead of him and it's fine if we are lamenting him for those stupid predictions.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#237

Post by kenhwang » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 1:56 AM UTC

jlbnjmn wrote: post #192

kenhwang wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla relies on high volume to make money; the other automakers are pricing EVs based more on margin. An economic slow down hurts volume much more than it hurts margins. Tesla also relies heavily on first-mover advantage to grow. With the virus stalling everything, all the more cash rich automakers get time to catch up on R&D, while Tesla is stalled from being unable to physically expand. Tesla also becomes more cash…

Tesla relies on high margins, other automakers rely on volume. Ford is in a much worse position than Tesla.

Ford for their current ICE lineup does rely heavily on volume and does appear to be in a hard spot.

Ford doesn't sell EVs yet. They have the Mach-E starting at $44k for 230mi launching in 2021. That does seem to have higher margins than a $40k Model 3.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#238

Post by gbronner » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 1:57 AM UTC

maxharris wrote: post #121

refurb wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Tesla falls firmly in “luxury good” and with mass unemployment, Tesla might see much less demand for much longer than just the lockdown.

You're forgetting about Battery Day next month! You will find out that Tesla hits $100/kWh, which means they'll be able to sell an electric car for the price of a gas one, without giving up range. You're also forgetting that what they're selling has no real competition, just like the iPhone didn't skip a beat through the 2008-2009 crisis. Also their full self-driving tech is ahead of everyone, including Alphabet. I t…

Ark's 24k/share translates to 4.4 Trillion. Would be worth more than most of the currently most valuable companies on earth now combined.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#239

Post by gbronner » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 2:01 AM UTC

yalogin wrote: post #56

Am I reading this right? They have 25% profit margin on each automotive? Feels like a tech company's margins. Does anyone know how it compares to traditional automakers?

20%. The other 5% is from selling credits to other automakers.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#240

Post by GhostVII » Thu, Apr 30, 2020, 2:02 AM UTC

vgchh wrote: post #236

GhostVII wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that it is a valid opinion to think that we should lift the lockdown - there is a huge cost to the shutdown, and flattening the curve was originally just to keep the hospitals below capacity, which they seem to be. However in the context of his other tweets, it seems irresponsible. He is retweeting conspiracy theories that hospitals are reporting cases of COVID for profit, and even made predictions they by th…

I would love to know why you think it's a conspiracy theory that hospitals are reporting cases of COVID for profit. It's not like healthcare has never gamed the system. Not saying you are wrong, but it's a possibility that they indeed gamed the system. If he has made predictions that we will have 0 cases by end of April, that's just clearly brain-dead of him and it's fine if we are lamenting him for those stupid pred…

The 0 cases tweet: https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/12407546572631449...

And to expand on the reporting of COVID for profit, I think it is possible for hospitals to be over reporting COVID cases, but I think it borders on conspiracy theory to suggest that it is a significant contributor to the numbers we are seeing now. Deaths don't lie and the increase in deaths we are seeing lines up with the positive test results. So in the context of arguing that we are overreacting to COVID, I think it is a poor argument.