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A case for ending lockdown

ryankemper.io

21–30 of 381 posts

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#21
post #14
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a popular point with the talking heads on the media but I’d encourage you to read up on it. Best estimates look like 1-4 years of immunity [1] 1. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

I hadn't seen the Lancet article—I was getting my latest information from the Quanta article also on the front page ( https://www.quantamagazine.org/what-can-other-coronaviruses-... I guess it's a matter of language and personal preference, but "this global pandemic will be in abeyance for a year or so" doesn't match my informal understanding of "a long time". I also believe, as sibling postpawl ( https://news.ycombi…

You make a good point. Sorry about my reply. I’m so used to getting downvoted these days I’m trying out different writing styles. (Maybe this one is a fail)

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#22
Why was this flagged?

I don’t even necessarily agree with the author’s arguments and conclusion, and honestly I have no clue what to think with all the information I hear that is constantly changing from the various tribes. But when something gets flagged simply because he advocates for ending the lockdown, I go from thinking the lockdown is probably necessary and trust the decision is made for reasons I don’t understand, to thinking like the paranoid conspiracy theorist that this is just a totalitarian power grab, and figure the need to suppress dissent means that it is more likely his position is the right one. If the ideas he is presenting are so stupid then people can decide that for themselves and don’t need some moral busybody protecting us from thinking for ourselves by flagging anything that states the opposite of what their tribe thinks is true.

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#23
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having, as you suggested, skipped just to the TL;DR, this bit jumped out at me as something that we very much don't know is true, and that it's dangerous to assume is true without proof: > Once you get sick, you can’t get sick again for a long time. Eventually you might be able to get sick again, but it will not be very bad. When enough people have gotten sick and then gotten better, the sickness can’t spread any mor…

“There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.” From WHO a few days ago: https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-p...

This statement was the source of widespread criticism and I in fact criticized it myself in the writeup.

I considered going for a deeper debunking but held off for the initial draft. I might circle back if people feel it's valuable. Let me take a quick stab though:

When we talk about immunity we need to realize the term is used imprecisely by laypeople (btw I'm totally a layman if it's not already clear).

I think of it simplistically as two components:

(1) The presence of actively circulating antibodies in the bloodstream. This is what the (oddly controversial) serology studies are measuring. It is thought that having a significant quantity of these antibodies prevents infection - i.e., what most people envision when they talk about immunity.

(2) Even after the antibodies have faded, there are still Memory B Cells, which lay dormant up to decades, waiting for exposure to the characteristic antigen (in this case, an antigen telling them that they have encountered SARS-CoV-2), at which point they resume and rapidly scale up production of antibodies.

The thinking here is that reinfection is likely possible after a sufficient length of time - whether that's a couple months or a couple years isn't yet known - but when you do get infected, your immune system will respond sooner, more strongly, and thus you will achieve a far lower peak viral load meaning a less serious infection with reduced transmisibility.

This is a robust mechanism that we see across tons of disease, including common cold coronaviruses. In my completely uncredentialed opinion, this effect is so common and well-supported that we should essentially assume it happens until we really have proof that it doesn't. I know that might sound backwards, but it really is such an enduring mechanism.

--

Here's another argument you might prefer. We know that at least hundreds of thousands of people have successfully recovered from COVID-19. Loosely, we can divide the immune system into the "non-specific" and the "adaptive" subsystems. Given that we have seen extensive recovery from this illness and that those who have recovered have detectable levels of antibodies, and furthermore that there is a case of a women who could not manufacture antibodies due to a rare auto-immune disorder who failed to recover, it stands to reason that the same mechanism that provides medium-term immunity is the mechanism responsible for recovery.

That is to say, that it's very farfetched to think that people are recovering purely from non-specific immune responses and that the detectable presence of circulating antibodies is just a red herring. But I suppose you could try arguing that if you wished.

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#24
post #3

Everyone is an epidemiologist in a pandemic.

I don't pretend to bear credentials. I submitted a writeup asking for feedback from those who might disagree with my conclusions; i.e. people like you. I am encouraging you to poke holes in what I've written, and I can tell you straight up that there are holes.

So...do you have any feedback about the content here?

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#25
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hadn't seen the Lancet article—I was getting my latest information from the Quanta article also on the front page ( https://www.quantamagazine.org/what-can-other-coronaviruses-... I guess it's a matter of language and personal preference, but "this global pandemic will be in abeyance for a year or so" doesn't match my informal understanding of "a long time". I also believe, as sibling postpawl ( https://news.ycombi…

You make a good point. Sorry about my reply. I’m so used to getting downvoted these days I’m trying out different writing styles. (Maybe this one is a fail)

> Sorry about my reply. I’m so used to getting downvoted these days I’m trying out different writing styles. (Maybe this one is a fail)

No worries; I also missed that you're not the original author. COVID + policy is a perfect storm of temper-stoking conversational topics.

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#26
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article is more about policy than epidemiology.

The former should however follow recommendations of the latter I think. If you agree, then policy isn't independent of epidemiology.

I disagree. Epidemiology is a science that generates facts and modelling with various degrees of accuracy. What you do with the science is in the realm of public policy and politics

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#27
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article is more about policy than epidemiology.

The former should however follow recommendations of the latter I think. If you agree, then policy isn't independent of epidemiology.

I agree (I think). Personally I believe the two are related. Epidemiology must inform the policy. And similarly we can only understand epidemiology if we understand the basic building blocks of immunity.

That, in fact, is why I have an initial section that's just about these deceptively simple concepts that we all need to understand. I wish our leaders had actually metaphorically sat the American people down and explained the basics. The average person really does not know what a virus is, or how diseases are transmitted.

So, I actually entirely agree with the position that this is something that relates to epidemiology. Where I differ is that I don't believe in gatekeeping, I think if someone has taken the effort to synthesize research into a policy proposal, however poorly, it seems at least worth debating the ideas on their merits. The experts who know more than me (and they do, at least some of them) should be able to convince a rational/reasonable person that their position is the correct one without resorting to credential-waving.

--

BTW I do read quite a lot of research papers, but I don't naturally have much interest in epidemiology. Just to give you an idea, I usually end up reading papers about stuff like: moist wound healing, and the role of red light therapy in fibroblast differentiation, and more broadly the role of electromagnetism in wound healing and neuronal galvanotropism. Weird stuff like that that's connected by invisible threads.

So, why did I read a bunch of epidemiology/COVID-related research papers? Well, the state of discourse here in the US, and also globally, has hit such a level of insanity that I decided that I needed to figure out what the facts were. (I'm not saying I have "figured out the facts" perfectly, or even at all, just that I am trying to) Honestly, it might sound ridiculous, but the turning point for me was reading that Venice Skate park was filled in with sand to prevent people from skating there. That is what informed my intuition that we are collectively being driven by superstition, and therefore what motivated me to read a bunch of research papers and reach my own conclusion about what's going on.

My ultimate conclusion? Well, the writeup is pretty clear on that one.

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#28

If it's not obvious, I wrote this. The intent is to be a fairly comprehensive coverage of what we know about COVID-19 and what it means for our policy. Note that the article is written from a US-based perspective although I suspect it's relevant to a broader audience. In general, I believe that the case against lockdown has been highly stigmatized and thus many people have not been exposed to a convincing argument of…

I found a typo: "incredible stess" --> "incredible stress". This is well written. Thank you. It's wrong that this post is currently flagged.

Thank you. https://gitlab.com/ryankemper/writings/-/commit/ca2771bbe1df...

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#29
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having, as you suggested, skipped just to the TL;DR, this bit jumped out at me as something that we very much don't know is true, and that it's dangerous to assume is true without proof: > Once you get sick, you can’t get sick again for a long time. Eventually you might be able to get sick again, but it will not be very bad. When enough people have gotten sick and then gotten better, the sickness can’t spread any mor…

“There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.” From WHO a few days ago: https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-p...

Hmm. I’d be curious to get your take on the lancet link. Are they just referencing different sources or does one have newer information?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.” From WHO a few days ago: https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-p...

This statement was the source of widespread criticism and I in fact criticized it myself in the writeup. I considered going for a deeper debunking but held off for the initial draft. I might circle back if people feel it's valuable. Let me take a quick stab though: When we talk about immunity we need to realize the term is used imprecisely by laypeople (btw I'm totally a layman if it's not already clear). I think of…

Great write up. It’s so strange the WHO would release a statement like that.
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