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Tesla Q1 2020 Update

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Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#141

Post by SEJeff »

Touche wrote: post #27
xiphias2 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- Will Elon stop with tweets that hurt Tesla? Appoint a CEO, or COO to run things to take pressure of Elon? I have read this from so many people for the last 5 years all the time. Sure, the tweets show that Elon wants faster growth, and frustrated, and I didn't like that tweet either, but if you want a conservative CEO, buy IBM or Oracle stocks, please leave Tesla alone.

I just don't want a batshit crazy person running a company I invest in.

I invested in TSLA at $212 / share. Elon is nuts, but the 200 TLSA shares I'm still holding (I sold a few to cover all of my initial capital expense) are doing just fine.

Nuts or not, his track record is getting things done others thought impossible. Now the industry is starting to come around that yes, you can in fact use machine vision in place of lidar since Tesla has published how they essentially use the same algorithms as LIDAR due to the way they structured their neural nets. Let's not forget this is the guy that invented what became (x.com) paypal before online banking even existed. He also made one of the very first online "phone books" before going to invest in early stage Tesla and land orbital class rockets on boats, something no government has even ever done.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#142

Post by herdodoodo »

Gwypaas wrote: post #134
xur17 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plus, the price of gas has gone down significantly, hurting one of the benefits of electric cars.

This is mostly the US because the externalities aren't taxed. In EU the taxes on gas are much higher. With VAT and everything Sweden currently has $4.5 per gallon, down from $5.8 last autumn, this makes any electric car much more compelling.

Sweden also has numerous tax breaks for buying electric vehicles, and does not properly tax the externalities of producing electric cars (running/refueling EVs, however, has very minimal negative externalities)

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#143

Post by threeseed »

Reedx wrote: post #136
chollida1 wrote: post #2

Since, things are slow, my notes.... Misc: - Fremont plant idle since March 23rd - raised 2.3B in February, which seems really well timed now - Musk venting with "FREE AMERICA NOW" tweet makes him seem almost crazy - can see why Elon is going crazy on twitter, he'd almost turned around Telsa and now they may be in the worst cash crunch of their long life - Shanghai Giga reopened on Feb 10th, showing the importance of…

> Will Elon stop with tweets that hurt Tesla? Appoint a CEO, or COO to run things People have been saying that for years and years. It's beyond stale. Meanwhile Tesla and SpaceX have continued to succeed beyond expectations for over a decade now. If there's occasional twitter volatility in-between simultaneously landing two rockets returning from space... so be it. Besides, if it bothers you that much, you don't have…

Of course what Musk does matters. He's the CEO.

And his erratic and reprehensible behaviour is degrading the Tesla brand as well as reaffirming the long held idea amongst shareholders that he is too unstable to be running the company.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#144

Post by kenhwang »

save_ferris wrote: post #39
tejohnso wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> can see why Elon is going crazy on twitter, he'd almost turned around Telsa and now they may be in the worst cash crunch of their long life With 8 billion in cash, and 3-4 billion per year burn rate, that's a two year buffer assuming no improvement. That doesn't seem like the worst cash crunch of their long life. What am I missing?

He might be more concerned about the sales prospects instead of operational expenses. Automakers are getting hit really hard by this pandemic, and they need a healthy economy to sell cars. Many economic forecasts are saying that a full recovery is 2-4 years away, although there are many different opinions.

Tesla relies on high volume to make money; the other automakers are pricing EVs based more on margin. An economic slow down hurts volume much more than it hurts margins.

Tesla also relies heavily on first-mover advantage to grow. With the virus stalling everything, all the more cash rich automakers get time to catch up on R&D, while Tesla is stalled from being unable to physically expand. Tesla also becomes more cash starved from falling stock prices than other automakers.

Then there's the drop in gasoline prices which naturally makes Tesla much less cost competitive vs ICE vehicles in its major markets (US/China). Added bonus of traditional automakers benefiting from low gasoline prices because historically consumers buy higher margin vehicles (truck/SUVs) when gas prices are low.

So it's multiple various disadvantages hitting Tesla all at once that's likely to continue for a couple of years.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#145

Post by xiphias2 »

mettamage wrote: post #111
YorickPeterse wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They can't handle when someone is expressive (aka the Tesla @ 420 tweet, he simply expresses his opinion) He tweeted about having money to take Tesla private, which from what I remember turned out to be false. Lying is not being expressive, it's just that: lying.

I don't know enough about this (how CEOs ought to behave) and I don't know to what extent Elon Musk cares. But I do know what I'd think in his position: I'd care more about freedom of speech. I believe that I should be capable of saying whatever I want (usual restrictions apply, hate speech etc.). Even if that means that I'm tweeting on a social platform about the share price. Twitter is not a platform where official…

Actually there was a big difference between this tweet (expressing his opinion) and the 420 tweet, which was a statement on a material fact. There exist special laws for CEOs of all public companies, and he should be extremely careful about those statements. The new CFO helps Elon with those though, and Elon just gives really boring statements about the future numbers (as opposed to the products, where he can get more crazy).

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#146

Post by aguyfromnb »

tejohnso wrote: post #26
chollida1 wrote: post #2

Since, things are slow, my notes.... Misc: - Fremont plant idle since March 23rd - raised 2.3B in February, which seems really well timed now - Musk venting with "FREE AMERICA NOW" tweet makes him seem almost crazy - can see why Elon is going crazy on twitter, he'd almost turned around Telsa and now they may be in the worst cash crunch of their long life - Shanghai Giga reopened on Feb 10th, showing the importance of…

> can see why Elon is going crazy on twitter, he'd almost turned around Telsa and now they may be in the worst cash crunch of their long life With 8 billion in cash, and 3-4 billion per year burn rate, that's a two year buffer assuming no improvement. That doesn't seem like the worst cash crunch of their long life. What am I missing?

For one, accounts payable is almost $4B.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#147

Post by AnthonyMouse »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #106
raheemm wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Batshit crazy? He just turned around Tesla, in an industry, where the last startup to succeed was over 80 years ago. Buy some Treasury bonds instead?

I don't know how you define "last startup to succeed", but... Hummer (1992, 28 years ago), Pagani (1992), McLaren (1985, 34 years ago), Kia (1974, 45 years ago), Hyundai (1967, 52 years ago) and even Jeep (1946, 74 years ago) and Saab (1945) seem like they would qualify as well?

Hummer and Jeep both had their original vehicle designs funded by the US military. None of the rest of those are US companies.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#148

Post by threeseed »

liquidise wrote: post #66
guardiangod wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone _please_ hire someone to follow EM with a phone jammer on. I can't take his BS anymore. Why do smart people like to have strong opinions on subjects they are not expert in? (Disclosure: I own TSLA stocks.)

I love this comment so much, though i can't decide if it is sarcasm or not. Musk has made a career breaking norms, and at times, rules. If you are an investor in $MUSK_CORP, you are frankly buying into that eccentricity. Personally, i love it for all the productivity and discomfort it brings us. He makes us think, if nothing else. Musk is a maverick. Maybe 90% of the time that energy is channeled productively. As for…

There is nothing notable or good about his response to COVID-19.

It's been a disgraceful example of how a public figure should not act if they care about people's lives.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#149

Post by marnett »

ryanwaggoner wrote: post #129
gamblor956 wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk is worth $38.5 billion based on his current Tesla stock holdings at their current valuation. If he hits the trigger in his compensation package, he gets even more Tesla stock which will vastly increase his net worth on paper Also, Musk is loaded with debt because he leveraged his stock holdings to live a very lavish lifestyle, including multiple residential properties, vehicles, and very expensive dining choices…

There are no very expensive vehicles or dining choices when you’re worth tens of billions. It’s literally meaningless, like it would be for me if all my meals for a year cost me 1% of a penny.

What about a catered party for 500 with staff and celebrity chef? The wealthy can throw lavish events that are not necessarily a drop in the bucket, especially if common.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#150

Post by anoncareer0212 »

ryanwaggoner wrote: post #129
gamblor956 wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk is worth $38.5 billion based on his current Tesla stock holdings at their current valuation. If he hits the trigger in his compensation package, he gets even more Tesla stock which will vastly increase his net worth on paper Also, Musk is loaded with debt because he leveraged his stock holdings to live a very lavish lifestyle, including multiple residential properties, vehicles, and very expensive dining choices…

There are no very expensive vehicles or dining choices when you’re worth tens of billions. It’s literally meaningless, like it would be for me if all my meals for a year cost me 1% of a penny.

Actually verifiably not true, he had a margin call just last year, the stock hit $180.
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