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Tesla Q1 2020 Update

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Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#121

Post by maxharris »

refurb wrote: post #101
tejohnso wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> can see why Elon is going crazy on twitter, he'd almost turned around Telsa and now they may be in the worst cash crunch of their long life With 8 billion in cash, and 3-4 billion per year burn rate, that's a two year buffer assuming no improvement. That doesn't seem like the worst cash crunch of their long life. What am I missing?

I think Tesla falls firmly in “luxury good” and with mass unemployment, Tesla might see much less demand for much longer than just the lockdown.

You're forgetting about Battery Day next month! You will find out that Tesla hits $100/kWh, which means they'll be able to sell an electric car for the price of a gas one, without giving up range. You're also forgetting that what they're selling has no real competition, just like the iPhone didn't skip a beat through the 2008-2009 crisis. Also their full self-driving tech is ahead of everyone, including Alphabet.

I think ARKinvest's 2024 bull case of $24k/share is correct. And if you don't, I guess we'll just have to wait and see! :grin:

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#122

Post by [deleted] »

axguscbklp wrote: post #99
chollida1 wrote: post #2

Since, things are slow, my notes.... Misc: - Fremont plant idle since March 23rd - raised 2.3B in February, which seems really well timed now - Musk venting with "FREE AMERICA NOW" tweet makes him seem almost crazy - can see why Elon is going crazy on twitter, he'd almost turned around Telsa and now they may be in the worst cash crunch of their long life - Shanghai Giga reopened on Feb 10th, showing the importance of…

Musk might just be venting on Twitter, as another commenter has suggested, but one way or another these tweets might turn out to benefit him. From what I can tell based on both personal and online interactions, it seems to me that U.S. public sentiment has been shifting against the lockdowns recently - and not just among some fringe protester groups, but among all kinds of demographically and ideologically different…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#123

Post by gamblor956 »

yalogin wrote: post #56

Am I reading this right? They have 25% profit margin on each automotive? Feels like a tech company's margins. Does anyone know how it compares to traditional automakers?

These numbers are not prepared under GAAP for the automotive industry, since there is no such thing as GAAP per-automotive profit margins for global auto manufacturers. Vehicle pricing is too dependent on both the class of the vehicle and the geographic market for a single global number to be meaningful. (For example, Toyota profitably sells vehicles that range from $1000 to commercial vehicles that sell for $250,000 or more.)

Tesla provides these numbers because its financials on a GAAP basis show it is under-performing most of its competitors. Despite selling more cars than all of its luxury competitors, Tesla lost money doing so. Its competitors may not sell as many vehicles, but they made profits on a GAAP basis...(and using Tesla's rubrics, would have even higher per-vehicle profits than Tesla since those profits account for capex and other items that Tesla excludes).

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#125

Post by tempsy »

Obi_Juan_Kenobi wrote: post #114
tempsy wrote: post #72

I’m watching in disbelief at the stock market making a V shaped recovery. Nasdaq is only a few percentage points off it’s all time high. I guess don’t underestimate the American consumer even at a time of economic uncertainty? I don’t know how else to explain record sales from Tesla, Facebook, and Microsoft today.

Don't lose sight of reality; business closings left and right, layoffs, pay cuts, etc. Don't let the zero-hedge crowd turn you off to arguments about funny-money from the fed. This is a fairly predictable result. Fed supplies money. Money has to be put to use. Where is productive capital? Interest rates are itty bitty. Stocks look high but .. what else to do? Risk buying high now or inflation later. But this can only…

Outside the stock price movement the earnings today were all good though. Advertisers still seem to be spending money on ads, even into April.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#126

Post by aguyfromnb »

chollida1 wrote: post #2

Since, things are slow, my notes.... Misc: - Fremont plant idle since March 23rd - raised 2.3B in February, which seems really well timed now - Musk venting with "FREE AMERICA NOW" tweet makes him seem almost crazy - can see why Elon is going crazy on twitter, he'd almost turned around Telsa and now they may be in the worst cash crunch of their long life - Shanghai Giga reopened on Feb 10th, showing the importance of…

Solar City installed 10x the megawatt capacity in 2016 as they did in 2019, with this quarter installed capacity down again. The business is non-existent.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#127

Post by marvin »

axguscbklp wrote: post #99
chollida1 wrote: post #2

Since, things are slow, my notes.... Misc: - Fremont plant idle since March 23rd - raised 2.3B in February, which seems really well timed now - Musk venting with "FREE AMERICA NOW" tweet makes him seem almost crazy - can see why Elon is going crazy on twitter, he'd almost turned around Telsa and now they may be in the worst cash crunch of their long life - Shanghai Giga reopened on Feb 10th, showing the importance of…

Musk might just be venting on Twitter, as another commenter has suggested, but one way or another these tweets might turn out to benefit him. From what I can tell based on both personal and online interactions, it seems to me that U.S. public sentiment has been shifting against the lockdowns recently - and not just among some fringe protester groups, but among all kinds of demographically and ideologically different…

Also, if there should be any trouble at all getting a dirt cheap bailout loan from the government, a solid history of holding the party line will be a guarantee for success. I don't know if Musk deliberately plays this strategy, but it would certainly be on my mind if I were in his shoes. I'm not at all shameless enough to do that kind of thing, thankfully.

If Tesla's able to survive through the current macroeconomic slowdown, this situation plays strongly to their advantage. They'll keep being capital constrained for another decade or so. Their ambition is to build 20 million cars per year. Need ten more factories to do that.

Zero interest bailout loans would be a godsend, as long as they can stay profitable and still have a healthy customer base. They're a growth company still. Nowhere near the ceiling of their potential market.

Although it's still a super uncertain and scary situation, it's much better place to be than being an established, no-growth automaker with thin margins falling to zero on a 10% sales decline.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#128

Post by aguyfromnb »

maxharris wrote: post #118
hinkley wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has been said before and should be said again: Elon needs an assistant who shuts his fucking phone off at midnight. It's like the moon comes out and he turns into a werewolf. There was a theory that he's Ambien-tweeting, but I suspect he just never learned in college like many of us that any idea that sounds really good at 1 am is probably really stupid.

Elon has done well by me. Every company he runs turns to gold. I wouldn't have him change a thing. Seriously, given his performance over the long-term, I hope he tweets even more. It enrages people that can't think past the next quarter, and that's good for long-term shareholders like me!

You're claiming victory a bit early.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#129

Post by ryanwaggoner »

gamblor956 wrote: post #103
adventured wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt it. He's worth $38.5 billion; $26b of that is in Tesla. He can shave off hundreds of millions of dollars from that any day of the week - if he cared to do so. The compensation package is relatively small compared to his existing wealth already contained in Tesla. Wanting the company to succeed is what most likely motivates him, not the compensation package (which is aligned with his existing interests, even i…

Musk is worth $38.5 billion based on his current Tesla stock holdings at their current valuation. If he hits the trigger in his compensation package, he gets even more Tesla stock which will vastly increase his net worth on paper Also, Musk is loaded with debt because he leveraged his stock holdings to live a very lavish lifestyle, including multiple residential properties, vehicles, and very expensive dining choices…

There are no very expensive vehicles or dining choices when you’re worth tens of billions. It’s literally meaningless, like it would be for me if all my meals for a year cost me 1% of a penny.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#130

Post by chrisjc »

axguscbklp wrote: post #99
chollida1 wrote: post #2

Since, things are slow, my notes.... Misc: - Fremont plant idle since March 23rd - raised 2.3B in February, which seems really well timed now - Musk venting with "FREE AMERICA NOW" tweet makes him seem almost crazy - can see why Elon is going crazy on twitter, he'd almost turned around Telsa and now they may be in the worst cash crunch of their long life - Shanghai Giga reopened on Feb 10th, showing the importance of…

Musk might just be venting on Twitter, as another commenter has suggested, but one way or another these tweets might turn out to benefit him. From what I can tell based on both personal and online interactions, it seems to me that U.S. public sentiment has been shifting against the lockdowns recently - and not just among some fringe protester groups, but among all kinds of demographically and ideologically different…

> it seems to me that U.S. public sentiment has been shifting against the lockdowns recently - and not just among some fringe protester groups, but among all kinds of demographically and ideologically different groups

Unfortunately, I've noticed the same thing.

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