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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#281

Post by xingped »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #264
OldHand2018 wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Lenders and banks were supposed to start going easy on loans but ive had two emails and a phone call about the loan for my Silverado this month and wouldnt you know, the caller was excited to mention my stimulus check. Don't settle for this. My niece had her car repossessed 3 weeks ago. They said for $18k cash she could have it. We told them to pound sand. She's borrowing cars and getting rides, but next week she'l…

> and I'm going to record a lien on it with the county so nobody can take it if things get worse and she has to declare bankruptcy This is brilliant. I have never considered using such a tool in my travels, but have added it to my tool belt. Thank you. > The rich get richer because they know how to take advantage of situations like this. Preach!

Can someone explain how this works?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#282

Post by empath75 »

MattGaiser wrote: post #148
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> Ive counted 2 furniture stores, a consignment shop, a few barber shops, and half the god damn bars Retail like that is very underrepresented in the stock market, so those losses wouldn't be reflected.

Not immediately, but eventually the lack of spending and debt defaults will show up.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#283

Post by empath75 »

low_common wrote: post #190
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

Where do you live? That sounds apocalyptic.

Try driving through the midwest and Appalachia sometime.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#284

Post by matthewdgreen »

jariel wrote: post #72
iambateman wrote: post #4

I understand that the economy and the market are different but I'm so confused. The S&P is up ~12% this month, despite massive unemployment, a shrinking economy, and serious long-term questions about the outlook. Is most of the 12% just market speculation that the virus issue will pass without a long-term earnings hit?

The market ostensibly has a much longer view of things. The word 'recession' is essentially meaningless without knowing the impetus for it. The 'outsourcing of Jobs to China' is a huge, permanent, secular shift that may affect stocks one way or another, but the 'coronavirus' is something I think business believes we will recover from quickly - for the most part. Tim Cooke told Trump he thinks it will be a 'v-shaped r…

How many people do you know who are going to buy the latest iPhone this year or next? I can tell you that among my acquaintances, that number is vastly lower than it was if I asked the same question in February. And that's assuming that everything with the virus goes as well as possible, which it isn't.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#285

Post by toomuchtodo »

xingped wrote: post #281
toomuchtodo wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and I'm going to record a lien on it with the county so nobody can take it if things get worse and she has to declare bankruptcy This is brilliant. I have never considered using such a tool in my travels, but have added it to my tool belt. Thank you. > The rich get richer because they know how to take advantage of situations like this. Preach!

Can someone explain how this works?

OP's niece takes on the liability as the owner (ie she hits someone and causes harm her insurance doesn't cover), but OP retains legal claim against the property, preventing someone else from obtaining it through a legal judgement or similar proceedings.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#286

Post by [deleted] »

CydeWeys wrote: post #232
ThrowawayR2 wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am against ending the lockdown early as well and disagree in no uncertain terms with those who are trying to minimize the pandemic. However, I don't think it's unreasonable to start wondering whether the economic and political damage may ultimately outweigh the lives saved. If anyone thinks populism spawning extremists and getting them into public office was bad now , imagine the tsunami of public anger and populis…

The economic damage at least was always going to happen. It's a direct consequence of the pandemic itself (and people's natural fear-based reactions to isolate themselves to reduce their risk). It's not like you can relax social distancing and have the economy do well, especially not when the death toll really starts ramping up and people fear for their lives every time they leave home. There isn't any choice availab…

[deleted]

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#287

Post by makomk »

inscionent wrote: post #178
dudul wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this post is why I get so infuriated when I see all the blue-checkmarks on Twitter, calling people who want to go back to work "Selfish, stupid, idiot, etc". People don't want lockdown to stop because they need to go to their hairdresser, or because they need to go hangout at the pub, or whatever idiotic reason these privilege a-holes put in their tweets. People want to get back to work , because they need money…

We can print more money right. Money isn't real. Death and this virus are. How about we just take care of those who need taking care of during this disaster. How about we put all national efforts to keep the lights on, providing safe housing and keeping the food supply chains intact. Instead we are worried about corporate quarterly profits and when the Ruby Tuesday can reopen, because somehow serving burgers for $3/h…

We can print more money, but we cannot print the things the money will buy. When the factories shut their doors and busineses small and large collapse and the food supply chain implodes, you can't eat money or shelter from the rain under money - and all that turning the printing presses up will do is to make it clear to everyone just how unreal money actually is. We know from other countries that's really hard to undo.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#288

Post by ghaff »

ceejayoz wrote: post #196
aphextron wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted…

I think we're gonna have to talk about repeating the school year come fall.

Schools are not going to repeat for everyone, if only because it would be monumentally unfair (and counterproductive) to force students who learned the required curriculum to repeat a grade. But if you just give everyone a pass and throw students into the next grade who basically skipped a semester, that's not going to play out well either.

ADDED: What I suspect happens is that most schools bend over backwards to pass everyone they feel they possibly can and adjust lesson plans when schools come back to recognize that many students didn't really learn much the previous semester.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#289

Post by balls187 »

abduhl wrote: post #214
balls187 wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the flip-side, putting all businesses in this situation means most of us are in the same situation; and every market/industry needs to work together to get out of this crisis. If no one can pay their mortgage, loan holders HAVE to make exceptions. That shared spirit of sacrifice isn't a reason to institute lock down orders, but my opinion is that it will allow us to lesson the economic damage long term.

Why do they have to make exceptions? Absent a government mandate there is no requirement and, unfortunately, the mortgage is secured by the underlying property. I fully expect, and you should too, foreclosures to skyrocket and people to be on the street. The banking sector is not in the business of shares sacrifice and the US government isn’t in the business of letting the banks collapse. This lockdown will kill peop…

> I fully expect, and you should too, foreclosures to skyrocket and people to be on the street.

Why, in the worlds wealthiest nation is that something I should expect?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#290

Post by mywittyname »

sulZ wrote: post #236
xienze wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So the market is looking to, what, 2025 or something? Well, another point not mentioned is, where else are you going to park your money? Interest rates globally are basically <= 0, real estate may be a dicey proposition for many years to come, bond yields are garbage, so... stock market. And considering so many companies are selling at a discount (regardless of whether or not you think that’s the case), dumping mon…

Could you share your thoughts on why real estate may be dicey in the years to come?

Normal investors lack the ability to invest in real estate the same way that wealthy investors do. It's nearly impossible for you and I to invest in a new office complex or similar. So normal investors are stuck with the housing (usually in a single market), existing small commercial, or REITs. Houses are fickle and gains are mostly due to luck (or volume). In my experience, yields on affordable commercial RE are not that far off from broader market yields.
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