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In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

reuters.com

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Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#641

Post by greedo »

arcticbull wrote: post #362
greedo wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And there's no evidence to date that people who test for antibodies are immune to future infections.

Ah my old friend greedo. That's how it normally works, this time could be different, but we have no reason to believe that. Generally for as long as you show antibody response you won't be re-infected because that's what antibodies do . The link I provided to the study I referenced was specifically for the purpose of, and I quote: "to assess SARS patients’ risk for future reinfection." "To be clear, most experts do t…

Hi Artic, here's a new study you might find interesting. It seems to disagree with your contention that immunity is normal for coronaviruses.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long...

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#642

Post by greedo »

djsumdog wrote: post #485
greedo wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have no idea how long lived the antibodies we develop in response to SARS-CoV-2 last. And obviously, an initial infection to COVID-19 will generate antibodies that will immunize the patient, as long as the antibodies persist. Don't you think that if this was a foregone conclusion, we'd be able to demonstrate that? Isn't it odd, that with people having been infected and recovered months ago, that no one is saying h…

but it would go against everything we know about viruses and our adaptive immune systems. I know there are some vaccines with lower take rates. Hep B requires 3 injections and only has a 60% change of generating antibodies. But an immune response from an actual virus should last for at least a few years. There are situations where you can get reinfected later in life if you're not exposed or given booster shots (like…

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long...

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#643

Post by _-___________-_ »

bob33212 wrote: post #555
_-___________-_ wrote: post #524

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be extremely alarming if there were large numbers of deaths or hospital admissions occurring among the Singapore workers who are testing positive. Given that there are virtually none, the lack of testing in other ASEAN countries is hardly extremely alarming . A lack of data is less concerning if you wouldn't do anything differently if you had the data.

If it turns out that the infection rate is higher and the death rate is lower for healthy individuals than originally estimated it would be extremely alarming that were are not taking a totally different approach to handling this pandemic

agreed.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#644

Post by CryptoPunk »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #634
CryptoPunk wrote: post #631

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are viral infections for which vaccines were never successfully developed, despite over a decade of research and trials. There is no guarantee a vaccine will be developed for SARS-CoV-2 in anything approaching a timely manner. People need to weigh the costs and risks of a near total freeze on economic activity against those of letting the virus run its course until herd immunity develops.

There are 115 trials underway. There are 100,000 very smart investigators working day and night. There has already been tremendous progress. My niece works at a lab developing a cheap test. Two of their researchers have already died of this virus (they went to work despite the risks). Don't make fools of them, by falling into despair and negativity.

A vaccine for HIV was never found.

I hope they succeed in creating a vaccine for COVID19, but resting the lifting of a highly destructive mass-lockdown of healthy people on a hope, is reckless.

Contingency plans need to be created; a definite end date for the lockdowns, irrespective of whether a vaccine exists.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#645

Post by Recurecur »

RangerScience wrote: post #514
bumby wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Totally agree. The difference being a high false negative rate may be more dangerous because it may mean asymptomatic false negative carriers are still spreading the virus. The downside of a false positive is that people are self quarantining needlessly. For a patient, a high false negative rate is usually worse. For an insurer, a high false positive rate is usually worse. The perspective matters.

What appears to be the potential danger of a high false positive is the narrative that it's safe to end stay-at-home because everyone already has/had it. Which seems to be the story being pushed with any talk of a lot of positives.

Nope, the narrative is "the mortality rate is similar to flu, therefore draconian measures aren't necessary".

Implementation examples: South Dakota and Sweden.

It seems clear that the infection rate has been severely under counted, meaning mortality rates are artificially high. Even better (from the standpoint of restarting) that "flu-like" mortality rate is concentrated in people over 60 years old.

What that all means together is the economy can easily restart, with the most vulnerable (old and sick) taking extra precautions.

This entire thing has been a fascinating exercise in how poorly central planning can work given bad information. The cure has been vastly more damaging than the disease.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#646

Post by microcolonel »

ephemeralism wrote: post #315
aguyfromnb wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Blanket propagandistic statements Blanket implies "all". Are the OP's following statements incorrect?: "no evidence of Human-to-human spread" when they had evidence, "no evidence of asymptomatic spread" when we all had evidence, "no evidence of aerosol spread" when there was evidence in public view Taiwan warned the WHO with respect to human-to-human transmission. Is this in dispute? https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld…

From your link, the message that Taiwan sent to the WHO: ""News sources indicate at least seven atypical pneumonia cases were reported in Wuhan, China". It also said while China's health authorities replied to the media that the cases were believed not to be SARS, "they have been isolated for treatment"." Furthermore, from the picture: "I would gladly appreciate if you have relevant information to share with us." So…

> Unless I'm reading it wrong, this does not mean that Taiwan had any additional knowledge other than what they had read from publicly available information.

You are reading it wrong. Taiwan also relayed that PRC doctors were talking to ROC doctors, letting them know that the staff at hospitals were being infected with a new respiratory illness, which would indicate human-to-human spread. They told the WHO about this in December, the WHO continued to contend that there was "no evidence" to suggest human to human spread.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#647

Post by klmadfejno »

aisofteng wrote: post #622
klmadfejno wrote: post #580

Earlier quoted context omitted.

About 50% of the population in that study is over 50. I think it's a bad idea to draw generic conclusions about the disease from a diverse age range. You end up with conclusions that aren't relevant to either. Glossing over the tables I don't see any data about symptomatic over the two weeks by age. I'd be shocked if the rates of becoming symptomatic are not much higher for the elderly and much lower for the young. D…

See: Simpson’s paradox, where trends in subgroups, taken together, can indicate a different trend. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

Trends in subgroups can indicate a different trend. The above comment is not about a linear trend. It's about an average statistic for a population based on a sample that's not representative of the population age distribution for a process that probably isn't linear across ages. If the older half becomes symptomatic 100% of the time, and the younger half becomes symptomatic 0% of the time, it's very misleading, though not technically incorrect to say people become symptomatic 50% of the time. There's a huge impact on how to handle the problem.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#649

Post by sharken »

XorNot wrote: post #411
sharken wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Marion Correctional Institution, Ohio it could look like the tests were conducted in mid-april according to https://drc.ohio.gov/Portals/0/DRC%20COVID-19%20Information%... . But as of 25-04-2020 at least 4 inmates have died to Corona virus according to https://eu.marionstar.com/story/news/local/2020/04/24/corona... . There are 2,564 inmates ( https://drc.ohio.gov/mci ).

As a note on sample size, given those numbers the general fatality rate would imply eventually 25 deaths.

It is currently at 40 deaths according to https://drc.ohio.gov/Portals/0/DRC%20COVID-19%20Information%.... No specifics on age or comorbidities yet.
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