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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

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121–130 of 877 posts

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#121
post #115
post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#122
post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

I'm sorry, your situation sounds terrible, and this is hard on a lot of people. I truly feel for you and everyone impacted. Speaking from personal experience, not even STEM people are immune from the economic impacts of the pandemic.

1) Have you tried the IRS website to check the status of your payment? My status finally flipped from "GO F YOURSELF" to "Please give us your bank information"

https://www.irs.gov/coronavirus/get-my-payment

2) As your hours are cut, you may qualify for Unemployment from your state under modified rules from the CARES act, have you applied?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#123
post #112
post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

And this post is why I get so infuriated when I see all the blue-checkmarks on Twitter, calling people who want to go back to work "Selfish, stupid, idiot, etc". People don't want lockdown to stop because they need to go to their hairdresser, or because they need to go hangout at the pub, or whatever idiotic reason these privilege a-holes put in their tweets. People want to get back to work , because they need money…

Most people who don't have money don't want to go back to work. They feel like the have to go back to work even though it's a terrible idea, because the rest of the country is refusing to support them while they can't.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#124
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. People keep saying about the market being up recently So, down 10% from the previous bubble. > 2. S&P is heavily weighted towards the strongest companies Good point. Dow is also up almost as much though. > 3. The market is always very forward looking. I may be cynical, but I see perhaps 2 to 3 years to regain the jobs we are losing, to see the employment rate return to earlier levels. That's years of depressed s…

> So the market is looking to, what, 2025 or something? Well, another point not mentioned is, where else are you going to park your money? Interest rates globally are basically <= 0, real estate may be a dicey proposition for many years to come, bond yields are garbage, so... stock market. And considering so many companies are selling at a discount (regardless of whether or not you think that’s the case), dumping mon…

You can't even just spend it on crack and hookers. I wonder how many people's net worth is actually going up during the lockdown just because of reduced expenditure.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#125
Nearly half (2.25%) of the decline was in healthcare. "Elective" procedures on hold played a large role in that and conventional wisdom would suggest that this $ would get pulled forward into Q2. I don't think it's that simple as we have had major job losses and with healthcare being tied to employment, you may not see the rebound in this that you would think.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#126
post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

What you're saying matches up with the reports I've been seeing.

I think a lot of HN readers are simply unable to believe such a thing can occur; the recessions of the past thirty years were mild compared to what's happening right now. Personally, I'm absolutely terrified.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#127
post #112
post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

And this post is why I get so infuriated when I see all the blue-checkmarks on Twitter, calling people who want to go back to work "Selfish, stupid, idiot, etc". People don't want lockdown to stop because they need to go to their hairdresser, or because they need to go hangout at the pub, or whatever idiotic reason these privilege a-holes put in their tweets. People want to get back to work , because they need money…

Yeah, those meatpackers really want to go back to their essential jobs right now.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#128
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's very hard to have currency based inflation especially for USD which is in very high demand.

Have you looked at the Fed's balance sheet lately? It is quite literally off the charts. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren... It is no harder to inflate the dollar than any other currency. Print enough of them, and the their price will go down. It's no different from any other commodity.

Inflation has only been on a downward trend since the early 80s, despite what everyone predicted when Nixon closed the gold window.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3 things: 1. People keep saying about the market being up recently, but skip the part about it still being down about 10% since the start of the year. 2. S&P is heavily weighted towards the strongest companies. Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and Google account for 20% of S&P market cap. Most of those companies have been helped by the pandemic, or at least not hurt nearly as bad as smaller companies. 3. The market…

> 1. People keep saying about the market being up recently So, down 10% from the previous bubble. > 2. S&P is heavily weighted towards the strongest companies Good point. Dow is also up almost as much though. > 3. The market is always very forward looking. I may be cynical, but I see perhaps 2 to 3 years to regain the jobs we are losing, to see the employment rate return to earlier levels. That's years of depressed s…

> Good point. Dow is also up almost as much though.

The dow is a subset of large companies in the S&P.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#130
post #112
post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

And this post is why I get so infuriated when I see all the blue-checkmarks on Twitter, calling people who want to go back to work "Selfish, stupid, idiot, etc". People don't want lockdown to stop because they need to go to their hairdresser, or because they need to go hangout at the pub, or whatever idiotic reason these privilege a-holes put in their tweets. People want to get back to work , because they need money…

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