21–30 of 877 posts
I understand that the economy and the market are different but I'm so confused. The S&P is up ~12% this month, despite massive unemployment, a shrinking economy, and serious long-term questions about the outlook. Is most of the 12% just market speculation that the virus issue will pass without a long-term earnings hit?
So the second quarter will be a better reflection of the impact of shutdowns and changes in consumer behaviour/travel, but we won't see figures for that for a while.
Almost more worrying, 20% of the value of the S&P 500 is now concentrated in the top 5 tech stocks, which are vulnerable in these conditions (advertising spend is dropping dramatically and unemployment is rising).
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/13/five-biggest-stocks-dwarfing...
I understand that the economy and the market are different but I'm so confused. The S&P is up ~12% this month, despite massive unemployment, a shrinking economy, and serious long-term questions about the outlook. Is most of the 12% just market speculation that the virus issue will pass without a long-term earnings hit?
The 17 min documentary from Netflix might be interesting here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCFkWDdmXG8
I understand that the economy and the market are different but I'm so confused. The S&P is up ~12% this month, despite massive unemployment, a shrinking economy, and serious long-term questions about the outlook. Is most of the 12% just market speculation that the virus issue will pass without a long-term earnings hit?
?? What is the purpose in comparing metrics about our economy recessing based on production of goods vs a market for pieces of company ownership. They are not and never have been the same and there is no law they must follow the same trend
Thats 4.8% annualized. The real figure is 1.17% for 3 months. It's quite impressively small really, considering everyone is sitting at home, and many aren't working at all.
I understand that the economy and the market are different but I'm so confused. The S&P is up ~12% this month, despite massive unemployment, a shrinking economy, and serious long-term questions about the outlook. Is most of the 12% just market speculation that the virus issue will pass without a long-term earnings hit?
If you're interested in preserving purchasing power 15 years from now, would you rather hold dollars or things today?
As a value investor, all of my theses were blown out of the water by the unprecedented Fed intervention. It is an environment in which the fundamentals are uncertain. I'm standing pat and waiting for things to make sense before moving again.
The trailing (!) S&P P/E is greater than 20 right now. The Fed is supporting prices above their historical mean/median of 15. It makes zero sense, from a financial standpoint, unless the market is pricing in substantial inflation.
Thats 4.8% annualized. The real figure is 1.17% for 3 months. It's quite impressively small really, considering everyone is sitting at home, and many aren't working at all.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_governmen...
I understand that the economy and the market are different but I'm so confused. The S&P is up ~12% this month, despite massive unemployment, a shrinking economy, and serious long-term questions about the outlook. Is most of the 12% just market speculation that the virus issue will pass without a long-term earnings hit?
You wouldn’t bet the economy will be normal by the end of the year but you might bet others think it might.
I understand that the economy and the market are different but I'm so confused. The S&P is up ~12% this month, despite massive unemployment, a shrinking economy, and serious long-term questions about the outlook. Is most of the 12% just market speculation that the virus issue will pass without a long-term earnings hit?
It's going up because poor people are being forced back to work.