31–33 of 33 posts
This seems like nonsense. People in big cities rarely go less than a mile. Many are now starting to venture out into forests and similar safe areas for the first time. On the other hand, a one-mile track in Wisconsin or Montana might be an evening drive.
Living in Brussels or Manhattan I rarely go more than a mile, why would I.
While in Montana, it could be a mile down my driveway to my mailbox.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why wont you talk about the predicted numbers? Which professional pre-peak US prediction did you find suprisingly accurate? Clearly it's not this one.
Suppression can limit spread to an arbitrarily small number depending on when it’s implemented. They correctly stated it’s capable of stopping exponential growth and that each mitigation or suppression strategy’s effectiveness depends on when it’s implemented. So, if we started a week earlier the daily death toll would be ~1/10th as large. That prediction exactly matches observed outcomes. Do you expect them to predi…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s also unclear whether the lockdown is accomplishing anything. We have enormous economic damage, lots of boredom, no dramatic decrease of cases in most places, an unimpressive amount of progress toward herd immunity, and no meaningful increase in testing, prevention, treatment ability, or clever policies from any level of US leadership. In other words, what have we accomplished by locking everything down? Delaying…
The answer is that the current US administration wants to draw this out until November when they can blame the economic toll of this disaster on the opposing party