51–60 of 71 posts
Im sure someone on HN has explained this before, but why are the markets steady and rebounding when the actual state of the US economy is so dire?? I've been waiting on that promised $1200 check for 2 days shy of an entire month now, and every day that passes I see another bar or clothing store or furniture outlet with boards up on the windows.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would say the suffering, hyper-inflation and widespread poverty imposed on Germany by the allies after World War I was a stronger proximate cause for the rise of the Nazis and the war in Europe. A very depressing illustration of the proverb that you reap what you sow. WWI was a complex jostling for power of the kind that had always happened in Europe, but on a scale and devastation never before seen. If not sparked…
Not sure about that. From what I understand, the German economy was recovering nicely and the Nazis were doing poorly in elections in the late 1920s. Then the Great Depression hit. Nazi share of the vote in German federal elections from 1924 to the Nazi seizure of power in 1933: May 1924 - 6.5% Dec 1924 - 3.0% May 1928 - 2.6% Sep 1930 - 18.25% Jul 1932 - 37.27% Nov 1932 - 33.09%
Hint: There's lies, damned lies and statistics.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would say the suffering, hyper-inflation and widespread poverty imposed on Germany by the allies after World War I was a stronger proximate cause for the rise of the Nazis and the war in Europe. A very depressing illustration of the proverb that you reap what you sow. WWI was a complex jostling for power of the kind that had always happened in Europe, but on a scale and devastation never before seen. If not sparked…
Not sure about that. From what I understand, the German economy was recovering nicely and the Nazis were doing poorly in elections in the late 1920s. Then the Great Depression hit. Nazi share of the vote in German federal elections from 1924 to the Nazi seizure of power in 1933: May 1924 - 6.5% Dec 1924 - 3.0% May 1928 - 2.6% Sep 1930 - 18.25% Jul 1932 - 37.27% Nov 1932 - 33.09%
Earlier quoted context omitted.
How it was explained to me is that the markets don't always reflect the economy because the negative outcomes have already been priced in. So, if the markets were expecting a downturn in the economy of -20%, but the economy actually went down -15%, then the market might go up, even though the economy is still doing worse. Another possible explanation is that we're currently print a lot of money without producing much…
My feeling is that investors have steadier hands now after they've witnessed the 10+ year rally after the 2008 crash. No one wants to be left out. Eventually though the market will catch up with what's happening on the streets (unless the fed keeps pumping money in).
Im sure someone on HN has explained this before, but why are the markets steady and rebounding when the actual state of the US economy is so dire?? I've been waiting on that promised $1200 check for 2 days shy of an entire month now, and every day that passes I see another bar or clothing store or furniture outlet with boards up on the windows.
If you know better than the market you should buy some puts!
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe so, but please don't post unsubstantive comments here.
What, exactly, was unsubstantive about that comment? I'm flabbergasted that after what the market has done in the last couple of months, especially given the OP, that anyone is under the impression investors have any idea what they're doing. Please, everyone tell me some more about it all being "priced in."
Im sure someone on HN has explained this before, but why are the markets steady and rebounding when the actual state of the US economy is so dire?? I've been waiting on that promised $1200 check for 2 days shy of an entire month now, and every day that passes I see another bar or clothing store or furniture outlet with boards up on the windows.
If you know better than the market you should buy some puts!
Goes without saying, but it is shocking how quickly the world has changed. The easy take would be that a lot of people are finding out how the other half lives, without easy access to healthcare or using credit cards to pay bills, but the poorer are disproportionately affected. The only positive, if there is one, is the ability to really consider how our societies operate, how dangerous apathy and incompetence are an…
...and that the market has already priced in the uncertainty. So long as the expected value improves, the markets can weather a long tail of suffering absent political upheaval that might change the game.
The media has spent years trumpeting that things are broken and precarious. That many folks cannot pay their mobile phone bills or cable bills or credit card bills at the first hint of a downturn is not news.
I suspect shutting down such broad swathes of the economy is unprecedented even in wartime. Nobody has any idea what we are toying with here or what happens next. It wouldn't be surprising if everything worked out well, and it isn't unthinkable that this ushers in the worst decade of chaos and suffering in the last 200 years. The economy is the most complicated machine we have and nobody knows what it is doing right…
I can't help but recall that the Great Depression and the resulting widespread poverty is considered by some historians to be one of the factors leading up WW2.
US President Woodrom Wilson cam down with flu, had a stroke and early retirement from public life. So he couldn't persuade US govt to join the newly formed League of Nations or ratify the Treaty of Versailles. He didn't support punitive measure against German state. Since US was no longer part of process, German paid hard. Hyper inflation took hold, 4marks to a dollar ended up 4 billion marks for a dollar. That hardship and resentment is the environment the fueled Hitler and brought him support. Interesting reading, "The Spanish Flu epidemic and it's influence on history"
Im sure someone on HN has explained this before, but why are the markets steady and rebounding when the actual state of the US economy is so dire?? I've been waiting on that promised $1200 check for 2 days shy of an entire month now, and every day that passes I see another bar or clothing store or furniture outlet with boards up on the windows.
The market doesn't reflect the health of your local businesses. It's largely chains and massive corporations that are publicly traded. Between the fed's $1.5T injection in the markets and the $500B bailout/loans for corporations, you can see how the numbers might not look too bad from Wall St's disconnected perspective. Today a lot of companies were announcing their numbers and matched ~ expected earnings. Q1 wasn't…