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Google Android Captures #1 Position in U.S. Smartphone Market

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Re: Google Android Captures #1 Position in U.S. Smartphone Market

#101
post #4

American smartphone market.

Also European market (though this is sales, not marketshare):

http://www.idc.com/about/viewpressrelease.jsp?containerId=pr...

Android Explodes in Western Europe, Drives Market Growth and Becomes the Biggest Smartphone Operating System in 4Q10, says IDC

Android growth was 1,580% year-on-year vs. Apple's 66%

Re: Google Android Captures #1 Position in U.S. Smartphone Market

#102

Er... why is HTC not in the list?

The first chart is all phones, not just smartphones and HTC only sell smartphones. You either have to sell lots of dumbphones too (like Samsung and LG) or sell a whole bunch of smartphones (RIM and Apple).

I'm not sure whether Motorola is there mostly on the strengths of smartphone sales alone or combined with dumbphones.

Re: Google Android Captures #1 Position in U.S. Smartphone Market

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Google has supplanted Microsoft in the OS business. If you remember, Microsoft's business model was to commoditize PCs. Microsoft won when Dell and HP raced each other to the bottom on margins. Now I see history repeating itself, only this time the handset makers have two people trying to squeeze them into commodity providers competing on price: (1) Google and (2) The Carriers.

Has anyone ever taken the time to explain why the apparently scary prospect of people "racing to the bottom" is bad for me as a consumer or member of society? The original usage was about states competing by offering better terms to corporations. These "better terms" were worse for the people living in the state because they got less tax income and less worker protection. But they are the vendors in that analogy, the…

Your point is entirely orthogonal to my point, so I am quite comfortable that following your digression does not undermine my comment in any way.

What I will say about Android handset makers racing each other to the bottom is that what is good for you as a consumer is when entire products compete against each other. The trouble with looking at handsets is that they aren't really whole and complete products. They need an OS/Ecosystem/Theme Park and they need a carrier's service to complete them.

What is best for consumers is when there is competition for all the elements of the stack from top to bottom, either in packages (iOS on iPhone on AT&T vs. Android on Nokia on Sprint) or individually. I don't know how things will play out in the Android "space," but from what I've seen so far, the big nut to crack for consumers is the carriers, not the hardware and not the OS.

When text messages are less than a penny each, I will know that the entire stack is competing in a way that is good for consumers.

Re: Google Android Captures #1 Position in U.S. Smartphone Market

#104
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They currently make most of the profit. But with declining market share puts those profits in severe danger in the future. And god, if I never heard the "Google sells you" line again, it would be too soon. Apple has an ad platform too, you know.

"But with declining market share puts those profits in severe danger in the future." What declining market share?

Comscore had them at 25% in December, 24.7% in January.

http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2011/2/c...

Re: Google Android Captures #1 Position in U.S. Smartphone Market

#105
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But with declining market share puts those profits in > severe danger in the future. Can someone explain, how this got upvoted? 50% of profits with just 4% of market share, the article we ar discussing there sates that Apple's market share grew (6,4 to 7 percent in OEM, 24.6 to 24.7 in total smartphones market. Even more—Apple was the only growing besides Google), and somehow "declining market share" gets upvoted?…

It is an outsized threat to their profits vs. what you might expect based on linear extrapolation. Up until quite recently they've basically been able to collect monopoly rent. It is quite likely they will not be able to do so by this time next year. It is entirely possible that they will lose this ability this year, with the speed this market has been moving with. Especially if iPhone users start to migrate to Andro…

"Even if I stipulate that Android will never be more than "good enough", a statement I would not necessarily agree with but let's go with it, you will still find a lot of not-Apple-partisans getting peeled off proportionally to the price delta between the iPhone and the Android. In which case Apple will either have to drop prices and profits or firmly entrench itself as the high-margin, low-sales player... and drop profits."

With iPod, Apple played this almost perfectly, driving down their component prices by always being the single biggest customer of their suppliers, then deciding how long they could charge a premium versus lowering prices to keep the delta with competitors prices from getting too large. They kept the prices close enough that most consumers were willing to pay the premium for the Apple brand.

I actually think they will do the same thing with iPhone. They are getting close to having the previous iPhone version a "free" throw in with new contract, and there are rumors of Apple developing an even lower version for pay-as-you-go contracts.

I think angering content providers is a much bigger risk for Apple right now.

Re: Google Android Captures #1 Position in U.S. Smartphone Market

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone ever taken the time to explain why the apparently scary prospect of people "racing to the bottom" is bad for me as a consumer or member of society? The original usage was about states competing by offering better terms to corporations. These "better terms" were worse for the people living in the state because they got less tax income and less worker protection. But they are the vendors in that analogy, the…

Your point is entirely orthogonal to my point, so I am quite comfortable that following your digression does not undermine my comment in any way. What I will say about Android handset makers racing each other to the bottom is that what is good for you as a consumer is when entire products compete against each other. The trouble with looking at handsets is that they aren't really whole and complete products. They need…

From that comment, I'll assume you're not in Europe. We've had the telecoms regulated somewhat sensibly and "racing to the bottom" for a while. And while it's not perfect I will note that during my last foray into purchasing phone contracts it seemed fairly difficult to avoid getting infinite text messages thrown into the deal (though I did manage it since I got a very cheap, effectively data-only plan which is all I needed).

Re: Google Android Captures #1 Position in U.S. Smartphone Market

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your point is entirely orthogonal to my point, so I am quite comfortable that following your digression does not undermine my comment in any way. What I will say about Android handset makers racing each other to the bottom is that what is good for you as a consumer is when entire products compete against each other. The trouble with looking at handsets is that they aren't really whole and complete products. They need…

From that comment, I'll assume you're not in Europe. We've had the telecoms regulated somewhat sensibly and "racing to the bottom" for a while. And while it's not perfect I will note that during my last foray into purchasing phone contracts it seemed fairly difficult to avoid getting infinite text messages thrown into the deal (though I did manage it since I got a very cheap, effectively data-only plan which is all I…

I'll assume you're not in Europe

'fraid not. Here in Canada, the Oligopolistic situation seems worse (if that can be imagined) than in the US. It is possible to buy bundles with effectively unlimited text messaging, but overall the situation for Internet and wireless telephony is anything but an efficient, competitive market.

So, "Yay for Europe!"

Re: Google Android Captures #1 Position in U.S. Smartphone Market

#108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From that comment, I'll assume you're not in Europe. We've had the telecoms regulated somewhat sensibly and "racing to the bottom" for a while. And while it's not perfect I will note that during my last foray into purchasing phone contracts it seemed fairly difficult to avoid getting infinite text messages thrown into the deal (though I did manage it since I got a very cheap, effectively data-only plan which is all I…

I'll assume you're not in Europe 'fraid not. Here in Canada, the Oligopolistic situation seems worse (if that can be imagined) than in the US. It is possible to buy bundles with effectively unlimited text messaging, but overall the situation for Internet and wireless telephony is anything but an efficient, competitive market. So, "Yay for Europe!"

Just to clarify on the texts: The very cheapest monthly (as in a single month long contract) deal I could find came with, by default, infinite texts (and these are cross-network texts, which a quick Google suggests seems to be a restriction on Verizon in the U.S. even when you pay an additional surcharge for texts each month, the price of which alone is higher than my entire monthly bill).

I'm sure you've been able to pay extra for a ridiculous numbers of texts for a good while, but now they seem to have dropped to be very roughly in line with their actual cost, which I believe is indistinguishable from zero to the networks.

Re: Google Android Captures #1 Position in U.S. Smartphone Market

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does dominant mean? Because I can tell you that from the folks that I know here who work at our phone company (including one who was privy to their negotiations with Apple over the iPhone), it isn't sales. The lion's share of android phones being sold here are the less expensive feature phone replacements.

Sure thing, CountSessine. We all have that inside person who validates our bullshit opinion. Again, Android's dominance has been on the backs of Motorola Droids and Galaxy S' and HTC Evo 3Gs, and the like. All high-end phones. But you keep trying to make yourself feel better as you clutch, desperately, only your iPhone.

Sure thing, CountSessine. We all have that inside person who validates our bullshit opinion

I do. My wife works at a telco with a couple million handsets on its network. The 'negotiations' they had with Apple are well known among the company's managers. But thank you for playing.

Again, Android's dominance has been on the backs of Motorola Droids and Galaxy S' and HTC Evo 3Gs, and the like. All high-end phones.

And again, I'm telling you that that's not what's happening now in 2011. When the Droid/Milestone was king of the hill in the Android world, Android's marketshare was a fraction of what it is now. What's changed is that Android has set the low-end of the market on fire. There's no reason to buy a feature phone anymore. This is also the reason the software attachment rate on Android is so low - cheap people don't buy software.

But you keep trying to make yourself feel better as you clutch, desperately, only your iPhone.

Wow. Troll much?

Re: Google Android Captures #1 Position in U.S. Smartphone Market

#110
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"But with declining market share puts those profits in severe danger in the future." What declining market share?

Comscore had them at 25% in December, 24.7% in January. http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2011/2/c...

That report you linked also says that the number of smartphone users is up 60% vs. a year ago. So the negligible decrease of 0.3% is pretty meaningless when that ~25% is now 60% larger than it was a year ago.
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