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India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

bbc.com

211–220 of 381 posts

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#211
Not a mystery at all. Multiple factors work in India's favor in likely order of impact:

- Young Population

- Non-obese population

- Heat and Humidity across a lot of the country

- Widespread deployment of anti-malarials to combat malaria

- Wide spread deployment of BCG vaccine

- Tumeric heavy diet compared to the rest of the world

The top 3 are non-controversial. Young, skinny people are less susceptible, and the spread of the virus slows with sunlight, heat, and humidity.

Anti-malarials like Chloroquine, etc. are more controversial, but there is significant anecdotal evidence, as well as in vitro studies indicating they may be helpful. Furthermore, countries that widely deploy anti-malarials for malaria have so far shown lower death rates than expected (Brazil in particular should be on fire with COVID-19).

BCG vaccine for TB appears to help with COVID-19, through a heightened general immune response. Big studies going on right now to test this theory. There are six different formulations of the vaccine and it is unclear if the different formulations effect its potential efficacy against COVID-19. This is even more "on the edge" of science than the anti-malarials, but the BCG vaccine has shown long lasting resistance to all kinds of respiratory ailments in populations where it is deployed.

Tumeric is flat out a stretch. Curcumin has come up over and over again in studies of compounds that may help. But, there is absolutely no testing or real evidence at this time. It is merely a supposition based on molecular models and meta-studies of other studies on the compound. I included it for discussion, since Tumeric consumption is likely higher in India than many other countries. I also wonder if it plays any role in traditional medicine in the country.

People look for a silver bullet, but there are many factors at play here.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#212

This should not be a mystery at all. India locked down entire country (no state rights in Epidemics laws), despite federal structure. Very few things can be bought, even Amazon is only delivering "essentials." But more importantly, India has been contact tracing like a greedy algorithm on steroids since case #1. There was a positive case in a condo nearby mine. The entire condominium building and adjacent locality is…

>But more importantly, India has been contact tracing like a greedy algorithm on steroids since case #1.

How is what you're describing a greedy algorithm? The behavior is based on self-interest, but that's not what a greedy algorithm is. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greedy_algorithm

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#213
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the official end game? Are they hoping that it will be eliminated worldwide, will they continue in this mode indefinitely assuming it won't be, or do they plan to basically close the borders forever (i.e. anyone who enters has to be strictly quarantined so that the internal contact tracing regime could be relaxed)?

This is the main question I have too. We have a disease that is pretty much guaranteed to be endemic so there will always be the ever present threat of re-importing the disease.

- guaranteed to be endemic in countries that have not taken the necessary public health measures. Consequently there will be very tough restrictions on travellers from those countries. Maybe the world will divide into green and red zones?

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#214
post #168

This should not be a mystery at all. India locked down entire country (no state rights in Epidemics laws), despite federal structure. Very few things can be bought, even Amazon is only delivering "essentials." But more importantly, India has been contact tracing like a greedy algorithm on steroids since case #1. There was a positive case in a condo nearby mine. The entire condominium building and adjacent locality is…

What is the official end game? Are they hoping that it will be eliminated worldwide, will they continue in this mode indefinitely assuming it won't be, or do they plan to basically close the borders forever (i.e. anyone who enters has to be strictly quarantined so that the internal contact tracing regime could be relaxed)?

I am pretty sure that international travel will stay banned for quite some time more, maybe the end of the year? But the current lockdown is supposed to be "eased" on May 3, and we are already seeing lists of districts with zero new case, where things will become really easy. But at the other extreme, there are "hotspots" where the lockdown will not ease at all for some more time. The lockdown won't just end on May 3. Some states intend to continue the lockdown on their own beyond that. Local shops have been allowed to open already. Some travel will become possible, probably within city limits or state limits. Restaurants and malls are unlikely to be opened any time soon. Everyone is still waiting to see what the official policy is.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#215

I’m a (foreign) American citizen staying in India and happened to arrive here a few days before lockdown started. I don’t understand how this is a mystery: India quickly locked down the entire country and going outdoors was consistently punishable by police hitting people with sticks (thankfully it seems like the brutality has eased up since the start and police are doing things like making people write sorry on the…

Did you see police beating people yourself? I have a suspicion that it was made just for camera to scare people.

In India there's never a shortage of people (police or civilians) beating each other with sticks. Happened long before COVID and will continue long after.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#216
post #211

Not a mystery at all. Multiple factors work in India's favor in likely order of impact: - Young Population - Non-obese population - Heat and Humidity across a lot of the country - Widespread deployment of anti-malarials to combat malaria - Wide spread deployment of BCG vaccine - Tumeric heavy diet compared to the rest of the world The top 3 are non-controversial. Young, skinny people are less susceptible, and the spr…

Curcumin downmodulates a few of the same inflammatory cytokines that spike in deadly covid-19 cases. It's also been shown as an effective adjunct therapy for people with asthma. It's really not a huge stretch to think that it could hinder the progression of covid-19, even if the only mechanism is that people feel less of an urge to cough.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#217
post #50

A better question from everyone outside the US: what the flying f is with the huuuuuge (accounting for estimated no. of infected and other factors) number of deaths in the USA??!!?! I mean, the US is (a) a developed country with modern health-care, (b) there is no common 'old parents living in same home with some of the adult children' situation you have in Italy + Eastern Europe, (c) there are no norms of common phy…

> A better question from everyone outside the US: what the flying f is with the huuuuuge (accounting for estimated no. of infected and other factors) number of deaths in the USA??!!? That's only true if you don't know what "per capita" means. So far the US has 172 death per 1M population. That's better than other countries with supposedly better healthcare including: - Belgium - France - Spain - Italy - UK - Netherla…

I think it would be more honest if US statistics would be split per state or social/economic region otherwise you I would complain that you also are in the same catherogy with the ones you accuse.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#218

I’m a (foreign) American citizen staying in India and happened to arrive here a few days before lockdown started. I don’t understand how this is a mystery: India quickly locked down the entire country and going outdoors was consistently punishable by police hitting people with sticks (thankfully it seems like the brutality has eased up since the start and police are doing things like making people write sorry on the…

Did you see police beating people yourself? I have a suspicion that it was made just for camera to scare people.

You could see several videos of it on major Indian news outlets. (With people in masks standing around.)

Corporal punishment is still very much a thing in many parts of India, for better or for worse.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#219

This should not be a mystery at all. India locked down entire country (no state rights in Epidemics laws), despite federal structure. Very few things can be bought, even Amazon is only delivering "essentials." But more importantly, India has been contact tracing like a greedy algorithm on steroids since case #1. There was a positive case in a condo nearby mine. The entire condominium building and adjacent locality is…

I'm in Austin. There was a confirmed case in my building and the best we got was a vague email from the management saying that someone had it and that the person had used the mailroom the Saturday before (we got the email on a Wednesday).

Remarkably I hear that Austin is going to be un-locking soon? Is that true?

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#220

Minor nitpick on reporting : literally every person they quoted with Indian sounding names live and work outside of India. And the lone Indian source they quoted, Prof Reddy, was the only one who lived in India and he was the only one who was not skeptical of the numbers. Not one expert from India was used in the article,besides Prof. Reddy, which is a relatively open society.

Wow, I just noticed this after you pointed it out. I have learned to take news with a huge pinch of salt. Many of the "reputed" establishments fail miserably when covering India or China. If you are writing an opinion piece, fine. But whatever happened to nuance and covering multiple PoVs? I think with Covid it is really important for us to wait and watch and stop competing.
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