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India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

bbc.com

51–60 of 381 posts

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#51
post #27

Poor article, not even a single mention of the most likely reason for low death rate (apart from young population), the weather! Strong Sun (UV light) and high humidity quickly kills the virus. Warm countries like Thailand - despite millions of tourists from Wuhan - have low death rates. In Spain cold Madrid was affected much worse than sunnier south. Summer will soon rapidly kill of the virus in southern Europe.

Plenty of warm areas are being hit hard, but a lot of warm countries have "reporting issues" (look at the excess deaths in Jakarta for an example). Heat might lower R0 by some amount but it's still way above 1 without measures

There's also strong correlation inside the same countries regarding the more sun = less deaths vs less sun = more deaths. The best examples that I can give are Italy, where Rome and everything South of of it has ridden the pandemic wave pretty ok (with the slight exception of the region of Puglia) and Spain, where the region of Andalusia in the South has had only a 5% or so excess in the number of deaths for this year

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#52

While the reported deaths may be low, the 'they are hiding something' attitude is not helpful. India cannot do the level of testing that western countries do due to the humongous population. I can very well assure you in India you cannot hide mass deaths like China. A distant relative died of cardiac arrest and the measures were so strict that in a highly social society where paying respects to a deceased is consider…

> While the reported deaths may be low, the 'they are hiding something' attitude is not helpful [...] in India you cannot hide mass deaths like China.

If you rightly don't want people taking an unhelpful attitude towards India, try not to do the same yourself about other countries.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#53

I can give some ground level information. I live in a very densely populated street (total length is just two hundred meters, my guess is at least a thousand people live here). No one is dying here without others noticing. Further, there's a great amount of scrutiny into whether anyone's sick (see the reports of doctors getting beaten up even by the cops). As far as I know, no one has died in this street in a month.…

I'm guessing you live in Hyderabad. Clearly your street is not a hotspot, and you really shouldn't be extrapolating from it to the rest of India. As far as people having it while being asymptomatic, that is unfalsifiable until they are tested.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#54
post #50

A better question from everyone outside the US: what the flying f is with the huuuuuge (accounting for estimated no. of infected and other factors) number of deaths in the USA??!!?! I mean, the US is (a) a developed country with modern health-care, (b) there is no common 'old parents living in same home with some of the adult children' situation you have in Italy + Eastern Europe, (c) there are no norms of common phy…

Obesity?

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#55
In the state of India that I live in, at least three people have died in the hospital of very Covid-19-like symptoms, but they were not counted as Covid-19 deaths.

Two of double pneumonia, both with travel history, but their tests came up negative. They were both healthy until very recently. One had arrived from the US, where the chances of community-acquiring-pneumonia are low as I gather.

One of cardiac arrest, but AFAIK she wasn't tested because she had no travel history.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#57
post #50

A better question from everyone outside the US: what the flying f is with the huuuuuge (accounting for estimated no. of infected and other factors) number of deaths in the USA??!!?! I mean, the US is (a) a developed country with modern health-care, (b) there is no common 'old parents living in same home with some of the adult children' situation you have in Italy + Eastern Europe, (c) there are no norms of common phy…

Whilst I agree the USA has a lower population density than most of the world it is not exactly true. This figure assumes everyone is equally spread out. However many inhabitants of the USA live in cities therefore population density is much higher. The same thing happens in Spain which goes from one of the least dense countries in Europe to one of the most dense looking at it in these different ways.

The USA has a large population and I assume this is why you think the numbers are huge. Deaths per thousand are around a half of the UK and less than a third of Italy and Spain.

In not very worried by US stats they seem fairly similar to elsewhere in the world. What I'm worried about is that it seems like American politicians, media, people think they are much further along infection than they are.

Edit - typo

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#58
post #50

A better question from everyone outside the US: what the flying f is with the huuuuuge (accounting for estimated no. of infected and other factors) number of deaths in the USA??!!?! I mean, the US is (a) a developed country with modern health-care, (b) there is no common 'old parents living in same home with some of the adult children' situation you have in Italy + Eastern Europe, (c) there are no norms of common phy…

Because societal norms in the US dictate that individualism takes priority over communalism no matter what.

Source: am American

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#59
post #50

A better question from everyone outside the US: what the flying f is with the huuuuuge (accounting for estimated no. of infected and other factors) number of deaths in the USA??!!?! I mean, the US is (a) a developed country with modern health-care, (b) there is no common 'old parents living in same home with some of the adult children' situation you have in Italy + Eastern Europe, (c) there are no norms of common phy…

Since the very beginning, everyone expected the US to have a very high percentage of death (remember discussing that my friends even before the US had a single casuality).

Hypertension and diabetes were listed as have a lot of impact of the mortality rates, and the general extremely bad health of the american population, coupled with the lack of a quality public health system made it the perfect target. That, plus more political issues, such as not being able to enforce curfew easily, a general mistrust in representatives, and a president that remained convinced it wasn't such a big deal for a very long time.

All in all, i think the number remain quite low compared to the worst case scenario.

Re: India coronavirus: The 'mystery' of low Covid-19 death rates

#60

While the reported deaths may be low, the 'they are hiding something' attitude is not helpful. India cannot do the level of testing that western countries do due to the humongous population. I can very well assure you in India you cannot hide mass deaths like China. A distant relative died of cardiac arrest and the measures were so strict that in a highly social society where paying respects to a deceased is consider…

> I can very well assure you in India you cannot hide mass deaths like China.

LOL..

What happens internally in India, is not my concern. But to say this, is disingenuous.

Don’t you have a little Muslim rebellion going on over there? With intense media and Internet blackouts?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8256349/Indias-Musl...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/india-restores-intern...

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