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The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

sfmayor.org

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Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#691

Post by icelancer »

roel_v wrote: post #499
icelancer wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then it would be best if Gov. Newsom and the other elected officials put hard data and target metrics out, not platitudes and "we must get better before we reopen" statements.

Well they don't know, and neither does anyone else. So it's either throw out an arbitrary goal now, and run the risk of having to change it and people saying 'you keep moving the goal post', or not doing it and people saying 'there's no target or coherent policy'. There's no winning here. Every couple of days there is a bitchfest on here about idiot managers demanding exact prognoses on software development projects,…

>> Every couple of days there is a bitchfest on here about idiot managers demanding exact prognoses on software development projects, and then we all agree that because there are unknown unknowns, that's pretty much impossible.

That's not what I - or most people - are asking for. We're asking for something akin to the agile product cycle. Give us blocks of time you are spending on the problem, tell us what you are doing in that block of time in a transparent and modular way, and tell us how much time per project you are spending and what you hope to accomplish in that time period.

It's... pretty simple. No one is asking Gov. Newsom to say "we'll be back in business in 4 weeks" but he's got to do better than zero data and zero transparency.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#692

Post by icelancer »

mikeg8 wrote: post #619
icelancer wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have two commercial leases. Neither landlord is offering a break. Construction is stopped due to government mandate. There is no bailout from the state due to this intervention. There is a high liklihood of mass layoffs and potential bankruptcy. I'm past the point of annoyance or despair. I've gotten used to the fact that not only do governments do whatever they want, but people like authoritarian action and don't…

Can you lay out the chain of events you imagine (or have been told ) will occur for refusing to pay your leases, or at least pay in full? I’m genuinely curious what would happen if you say, “sorry, not paying.” beyond an eviction. It seems like if eviction is the only consequence, it may be worth considering a partial payment as I’d imagine the prospects of replacing you as a tenant are near zero in the short term. (…

Eviction and destruction of credit history and them coming after my house since the leases are personally guaranteed (which might happen anyway).

I also run a business in Seattle. Finding a new tenant will be no sweat at all even during the COVID times.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#693

Post by nostrebored »

ashtonkem wrote: post #630
ceejayoz wrote: post #603

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In India in particular, the lockdown has so far caused more misery than the virus itself... I mean, that's the point, right? Heart surgery hurts more than chest pain, but it's intended to prevent the heart attack.

That’s the rational calculus, yes. But humans have a really hard time balancing suffering today against hypothetical suffering tomorrow, especially when successful intervention makes it appear like the problem was never there in the first place.

That's an interesting presupposition, entirely unconfirmed by data.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#694

Post by holler »

zebnyc wrote: post #655
holler wrote: post #554

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another thing that I find funny is how haphazardly the social distancing rules are enforced. At Costco when entering the store, they have you get into an external makeshift line and stand 6 feet away from the next person while waiting for your turn to enter the store. BUT, once you enter the store, there's literally not a single person enforcing anything, and so everyone is just mashed together walking around as if n…

Went to the Costco in South SF today and there were employees with megaphones reminding folks to maintain social distance near the produce, meat and deli sections.

Interesting, at a location near me it was a free-for-all across the store... and no one was social distancing at the checkout line...

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#695

Post by nkkollaw »

luckylion wrote: post #97
nkkollaw wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1 more month will probably put a huge number of businesses out of business. Is there a reason why they'd do something like this, where anyone who looks will see that it's not at all needed?

Opening too early would be the end of a political career. A ruined economy isn't, you can always point to "the virus" that did it.

I see. I can see this being the reason, yes.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#696

Post by Skunkleton »

skellington wrote: post #661
Skunkleton wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We already missed the boat on options 1 and 2 due to various governmental incompetencies. Did you not notice that a full third of all cases globally have been in America?

I disagree that we missed the boat on OPTION 1. Option 1 may be the only path currently available to us by removing restrictions in a controlled way. OPTION 2 is even still a possibility IF we massively ramped up testing and contact tracing. This is possible in theory, but we just not hearing ANYTHING about the real status of mass testing and/or contact tracing procedures (including things like the apple-google app).

It’s frustrating to consider, but if we were capable of the level of testing we would need to re open in the next few weeks, why haven’t we started doing it?

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#697

Post by Skunkleton »

dwaltrip wrote: post #648
landryraccoon wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cases is a very poor metric for this because a country that does zero tests will have zero cases, and therefore look very good. Total deaths IMHO is much more comparable statistic between countries. By that metric it looks a little better for the US, since we have slightly less than a third of the world death total.

For a better comparison, I think you need to look at deaths per capita. The US is somewhere in the middle of the pack on this metric.

That doesn’t capture what’s important. There are plenty of places that could probably have never closed and not had any real spike in infections. It’s places where people live densely that are at the greatest risk. The Bay Area in particular probably isn’t at the top of that list, but it is still a higher risk area. Really we just need more testing, and randomized testing. I think we would all be able to move forward more intelligently if we had data.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#698

Post by triceratops »

favorited wrote: post #512
geomark wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where I live (not the US) the same thing is happening, except that although the big stores are open they cannot sell nonessential items. They have those aisles roped off.

That's what's supposed to be happening in CA right now. The 2nd shelter-in-place order stated that, even if you are an essential business, you were not allowed to operate non-essential components of your business.

I'd be pretty pissed off about roped-off aisles. When other people in the store aren't very vigilant about maintaining social distancing, having the additional aisles to escape into is a big deal.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#699

Post by holler »

scubbo wrote: post #631
holler wrote: post #609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where did I "argue" that protective measures are succeeding therefore X? I'm merely stating that you cannot have a society of 350M people completely stop what they're doing for 6 months and not have disastrous consequences. At some point we have to choose whether the lives we're potentially saving after lockdown month X vs the emergent problems from shut down are worth it.

I think they were attributing that argument to the people you described "rebelling", not to you yourself.

gotcha. I think it's disingenuous to effectively say that people are too stupid to make their own decisions regarding personal safety. There're growing calls to ease the lockdowns right now from people with top scientific credentials. I personally know doctors working in large hospitals who have said it's time to ease restrictions in most areas. It doesn't have to be all-or nothing.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/science-says-its-time-to-start...

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#700

Post by rayiner »

dragonwriter wrote: post #435
PureParadigm wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, they're temporary. The concern is that if the shut down ends soon (seems unlikely but who knows) then it will delay an economic recovery until the temporary benefits expire. For a faster economic recovery we would want as many people getting back to work as possible. If you make more money not working, the rational choice is to wait for the temporary benefits to expire and then go back to work.

Again, unemployment requires you to actively search for work and accept offered employment or you lose benefits. Higher benefits don't create an incentive to voluntarily stay out of work since you can't have them if you do that.

The CARES Act extends unemployment benefits through the end of 2020 delegates to the states what the job search requirement means. States have a strong incentive to interpret it loosely because the federal government is footing the bill. Additionally, the “offered employment” thing is not hard and fast line. Restrictions will be lifted incrementally—there will be no “everyone back to work moment.” Businesses with furloughed employees will want to call them back up sooner rather than later, but workers earning more on unemployment have an incentive to not come back to work as soon as they could. Businesses, particularly smaller ones, aren’t going to be in a position to say “come back or you’re fired.” (Can you imagine the liability?) It’s during that transition period when the incentives could slow down the recovery.
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