The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May • Hacker News Board

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#561

Post by Marsymars » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 3:09 AM UTC

roel_v wrote: post #499

icelancer wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then it would be best if Gov. Newsom and the other elected officials put hard data and target metrics out, not platitudes and "we must get better before we reopen" statements.

Well they don't know, and neither does anyone else. So it's either throw out an arbitrary goal now, and run the risk of having to change it and people saying 'you keep moving the goal post', or not doing it and people saying 'there's no target or coherent policy'. There's no winning here. Every couple of days there is a bitchfest on here about idiot managers demanding exact prognoses on software development projects,…

It doesn't seem like there really are unknown unknowns in this case though. You can just fix all your non-quantifiable assumptions at current levels, and set some numbers for the quantifiable ones. The problem is that any numbers you set that way either involve many deaths, or many months of lockdown, so no politician wants to say them out loud.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#562

Post by 9nGQluzmnq3M » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 3:10 AM UTC

holler wrote: post #552

cs702 wrote: post #71

If many people get very sick simultaneously, they would not only overwhelm hospitals, they would also inflict a disorderly, involuntary shutdown of large swaths of the economy, driven by fear -- instead of the orderly, voluntary shutdown we have at present, driven by government mandate. We all want to avoid that .

It's only orderly so far because of a) food supply has not been affected yet*, and b) the gov issued unprecedented bailouts and put money in the hands of many people/businesses. However, we can't just keep printing money forever, if this goes on another 6 months it could be a whole different ball game.

The US actually can keep printing money for a long, long time, and they've been doing this for quite a while too:

https://jeremiahjosey.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/money-supp...

Of course inflation will eventually eat away at its value, but at the moment we have the opposite problem, namely a deflationary spiral, because people aren't buying.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#563

Post by lazyasciiart » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 3:10 AM UTC

holler wrote: post #548

jackcosgrove wrote: post #532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought the purpose of SIP orders was to prevent overwhelming hospital ICUs. Covid case numbers are upstream of that but it's not 1-1.

That was/is the precise reason given, so it's hard to imagine this going on much longer given that hospitals are doing fine. I think another month is going to lead to chaos and many people rebelling.

Ah yes, the argument that protective measures are succeeding and therefore they are no longer necessary. Completely irrational in a scenario where the danger being protected against hadn't gone away.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#564

Post by gdilla » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 3:11 AM UTC

rootusrootus wrote: post #340

cs702 wrote: post #71

If many people get very sick simultaneously, they would not only overwhelm hospitals, they would also inflict a disorderly, involuntary shutdown of large swaths of the economy, driven by fear -- instead of the orderly, voluntary shutdown we have at present, driven by government mandate. We all want to avoid that .

On the flip side, NYC just showed us they can suffer through 20% of the population becoming infected at about the same time without their hospitals utterly collapsing. There is probably some happy medium somewhere. For certain, flattening the curve so much that there are just a few new infections every week is not how we end the lock down.

And? That was the point. It's better than 40% of the population becoming infected at the same time AND the hospitals totally collapsing.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#565

Post by randycupertino » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 3:12 AM UTC

tgsovlerkhgsel wrote: post #483

01100011 wrote: post #243

I'm surprised we're not seeing plans for some businesses to reopen with restrictions. I think it will be a while before we allow haircuts and manicures again, but I see no reason why we can't increase the types of businesses allowed open. Limiting occupancy, requiring PPE, and enforcing social distancing appear to be reasonable requirements. I hope the politicians and government workers are busy trying to find a midd…

Switzerland actually started reopening with haircuts and manicures. Certainly pressure from groups representing hairdressers was a big part of it, but the justification they use is that contact tracing can be done reliably in such a situation. Keep in mind that they also want to reopen schools, citing dubious claims about children not contributing much to the spread, staying silent about the likely true motivation (s…

> Switzerland actually started reopening with haircuts and manicures.

I've been saving a ton of money without going for dye jobs, highlights, root melt and cut every other month, monthly esthetician and biweekly manicures.

I'm almost considering growing out my greys during this, although would be subject to ageism in my industry so sort of on the fence for now.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#566

Post by lazyasciiart » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 3:12 AM UTC

catherd wrote: post #507

ridgeguy wrote: post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IIUC, it's still unknown if having COVID-19 confers either short- or long-term immunity.

People keep saying that, but I haven't heard of any clear examples of actual sick people who got it again, just positive tests that seem to be within the error bands for the tests. Not a doctor, this is not a rhetorical question: Shouldn't we have those 2nd-time sick people by now? Shouldn't the null hypothesis be that immunity works like most other colds? Masks weren't "proven to be effective" until well after any r…

The null hypothesis is exactly that it acts like other coronaviruses, which don't seem to create immunity in people. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long...

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#567

Post by gdilla » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 3:13 AM UTC

jwlake wrote: post #482

01100011 wrote: post #243

I'm surprised we're not seeing plans for some businesses to reopen with restrictions. I think it will be a while before we allow haircuts and manicures again, but I see no reason why we can't increase the types of businesses allowed open. Limiting occupancy, requiring PPE, and enforcing social distancing appear to be reasonable requirements. I hope the politicians and government workers are busy trying to find a midd…

The thing I'm confused by is why a costco is open that has like 1000 people per day and a flower shop that has 20 customers per day isn't open. Is the flower shop dangerous? Is it less essential on the yearly timeframe? This lockdown isn't measured in days right now, it's measured in months. What's "essential" in days is not what's "essential" in months.

by enacting these rules they create distancing in society by default. At least way more of it. Yes costco may be 'crowded' but generally MORE people are staying home and not going out because many places are closed.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#568

Post by gnopgnip » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 3:14 AM UTC

hombre_fatal wrote: post #4

I'm lucky enough to have remote work. And I'm sure many HNers have a nice buffer of savings from their tech jobs to weather the storm or are getting paid time off. But can anyone share what it's like to not be in either of these situations? How are your rent lords handling things? I live abroad in a cheap country so I can handle zero income, but I wouldn't be able to last long if rent was $2000+/mo instead of the Yet…

Alameda county flat out does not allow evictions for non payment of rent for covid-19 related reasons. The landlords can get back rent on a 12 month payment plan, and they can pursue small claims court if this is not paid.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#569

Post by 9nGQluzmnq3M » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 3:14 AM UTC

tgsovlerkhgsel wrote: post #483

01100011 wrote: post #243

I'm surprised we're not seeing plans for some businesses to reopen with restrictions. I think it will be a while before we allow haircuts and manicures again, but I see no reason why we can't increase the types of businesses allowed open. Limiting occupancy, requiring PPE, and enforcing social distancing appear to be reasonable requirements. I hope the politicians and government workers are busy trying to find a midd…

Switzerland actually started reopening with haircuts and manicures. Certainly pressure from groups representing hairdressers was a big part of it, but the justification they use is that contact tracing can be done reliably in such a situation. Keep in mind that they also want to reopen schools, citing dubious claims about children not contributing much to the spread, staying silent about the likely true motivation (s…

The science on children not being significant vectors of COVID (and, by extension, school closures not being very effective) is actually reasonably well established:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/apr/06/school-clo...

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#570

Post by randycupertino » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 3:15 AM UTC

01100011 wrote: post #274

abfan1127 wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why haircuts and manicures? Its a low population setting (1:1). If there is proper hand washing between clients, each new client gets a squirt of sanitizer, and both clients and stylists wear a mask? Require every haircut to start with a shampoo for mechanical disinfection.

That's a decision for those in government, but personally I see it as a balance of risk vs reward. There is a high risk of infection and relatively little benefit. It is probably better, for society as a whole, to pay the unemployment payments and have long hair for a while. Shampoo doesn't remove the virus from one's lungs or exhalations. I'm not sure what benefit shampoo would have over, say, gloves. PPE is good bu…

> PPE is good but hairstylists aren't usually trained in its proper use.

Higher end salons use PPE for keratin treatments and offer them to their clients due to the straightening chemicals (allegedly not formaldehyde but many products still contain).

Also, nail salon techs had been starting to wear masks and even face shields due to powder coating and dust from dremeling gel coating and acrylics.

I don't think there would be a high barrier to entry to transition wider PPE rollout across the field, because it's already implemented among some of the treatments.