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The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

sfmayor.org

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Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#451

Post by icelancer »

blast wrote: post #448
icelancer wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also sector divide. Small business owners are getting killed. PPP and EIDL will be a drop in the bucket. Mass conglomerations are coming and in 12 months we'll wonder why Amazon and Walmart and other multinational corps bought everything up.

You're right. Another issue is the age divide. Younger people: harder hit economically, less so by the virus; older people: harder hit by the virus, less so economically. This can only worsen the class fissure which had already developed along generational lines.

Median age of death is well over 70 years of age. It's obvious who this virus strikes.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#452

Post by thethethethe »

akira2501 wrote: post #150
scott_s wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen you say similar things in a few other threads, and myself and others have said, every time: the risk to everyone is that the hospitals become overwhelmed. They are not right now because of stay-at-home orders. What you think of as failure - hospitals currently low utilization - is in fact success .

> What you think of as failure - hospitals currently low utilization - is in fact success. What bothers me is the contention that my rights are contingent upon reported capacity of already existing hospitals. If this is truly a concern, and our rights our primary, then we should be building more hospitals so that we no longer have to make this Faustian bargain. It seems impractical and short-sighted to continue these…

> What bothers me is the contention that my rights are contingent upon reported capacity of already existing hospitals

This is pretty selfish. What about all of the old and immunocompromised people that could _die_? What about the families of those people? These people deserve rights too and I’d say their right to _stay alive_ trumps your “right” to get a hair cut or whatever

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#453

Post by tayo42 »

rootusrootus wrote: post #444
tayo42 wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's because nothings different then when it all started. If we open everything up we'll just see new cases again

This may be true for years. We need to be realistic, and remember that the goal all along has been to flatten the curve, not eliminate all infections.

Flatten the curve is to make sure there is enough available resources to help people who are sick. Nothings changed though, so opening things up means we'll likely be overwhelmed. Why take the risk to end up like any of regions that were hit hard?

So yes it'll be true for years, we need to learn to live with this virus, we haven't done that yet

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#454

Post by perl4ever »

greendave wrote: post #413
perl4ever wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does it make any difference if they have "plateaued" if there are more active cases today than yesterday? Does it make any difference that the US has not "plateaued" if the number of active cases is rising slower than in Sweden, and the death rate is lower? +-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+ | Country, | Active Cases | Yesterday | Chg | % chg | +-------------+--------------+-----------+------…

It's good to have numbers, but given the wide disparity in testing rates and protocols, it's difficult to come to any significant conclusions based primarily on day-to-day case count. Death count is at least somewhat less subject to such complications, and even there, it'd be much better to compare 7-day averages to smooth over reporting quirks.

Well, this is a truism, but it also smacks of special pleading. When readily available data contradicts a line of propaganda or groupthink, you can rationalize why it has many issues and quite possibly be right, but why are you exerting yourself to rationalize in that direction and not the opposite one? Even weak evidence against something should not enhance your confidence in that thing!

If the numbers were really meaningless, it would probably be evident in their clustering or limited range. I noticed the contrary; I didn't post a complete chart because I figured more data would probably result in diminishing returns when urging people to question their beliefs.

Russia, by the way, in the same data set, has about 7.6% more active cases than yesterday. Brazil, 8.4%. Pakistan, 4.8%. So if you hypothesized that all the increases were in the approximate range of +1% to -1%, you would be quite wrong.

Conversely, Germany's figure is down 4.8% and Switzerland is down 6.2%.

It seems as though people for whatever reason fetishize Sweden, among other nordic countries, and I'm increasingly irritated by it. Partly because it reminds me of the current US president and his judgment of different countries as "shitholes" or not. People pretend that they are clearly seeing facts in an unbiased way while doing the opposite.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#455

Post by kansface »

wpietri wrote: post #393
kvetching wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's insane. If they're hesitant to open up now, they will never feel comfortable opening up.

Or perhaps they know more about the topic than we random HN readers and have a plan that they're following.

Or perhaps they have radically different values and think one preventable death is one too many or perhaps they know a lot less about economics than random HN or perhaps they just don’t want to be blamed when more people die (even if it’s the right choice). Opening up society is a fundamentally political decision that I’m not personally willing to cede to unelected scientists.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#456

Post by adrr »

_se wrote: post #392
adrr wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can start opening things up, it doesn't mean people will go out to eat, get haircuts, visit movie theaters, workout at a gym or travel. As long as the virus is out there and actively spreading, people will voluntarily shelter. Businesses will still go bankrupt as most retail stores and restaurants run at around breakeven in net income. Also there is the liability issue. If we want to get back to normal getting co…

That is ridiculous and impossible. Don't kid yourself thinking that it will go away. It's not going to happen.

Other countries have achieved it. Why can’t the US do it?

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#457

Post by Melting_Harps »

cylinder wrote: post #447
lowpro wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My friend who works at the airport in the Galapagos (GPS) was telling me that no one has gotten paid since the tourism stopped. Luckily she can work on farm, but many can't. The local animal shelter there is now out of food, and the dogs will starve if they don't somehow raise money in the next 3 days or so (@patitasgalapaguenas on instagram, you can donate here [0]). The US is struggling in many ways, but I can't he…

This is not at all different from what's going on across the US for anyone who works in a service role, and most people still haven't had their UI claims processed / payments made.

> This is not at all different from what's going on across the US for anyone who works in a service role, and most people still haven't had their UI claims processed / payments made.

Exactly. Most of my old team is simply floating on what savings they had, partner's salaries and any money from the family funds we are offered (small grants of $1200 depending on need and availability for FT employees). Some don't qualify for unemployment, as they're just furloughed waiting for a re-open date, or are still dependents and got screwed out of the $1200 checks sent out.

I stepped down from my role as a chef in late January to focus on SpaceX interview(s) and had budgeted accordingly and was ok with passive income sources, but those dried up as the Market tanked, so I had to get really creative this month to make ends-meet because I thought after my interview in February I'd be employed by May. My landlord has made it clear he still expects payment on the 1st, which made me ask serious questions about my current situation.

Ultimately, I have realized I have to go back to tech now as these past years in culinary to get to this point have been incredibly financially precarious, so I took some refresher classes on Coursera and sent out some CVs.

I've heard back from one potential employer so hopefully that pans out as our stay at home requirement is being lifted at the end of this month in CO. My family in CA is still required to stay at home and less than half can work remotely so its putting a strain on things.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#458

Post by geerlingguy »

hysan wrote: post #324
exhilaration wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since my wife is on my health insurance plan, COBRA is going to be very expensive. Instead of COBRA, can you get on an Obamacare ACA plan? That might be much cheaper.

My wife is a certified social worker and knows just about everything there is about that. It’ll be cheaper but far worse in terms of coverage and deductibles. So it’s an option for stretching budget, but it’s not a good solution if anything significant happens. I’ll ask her if she knows what’s changed with regards to COVID-19 related cases, but my guess is that nothing in terms of coverage has changed. So given the c…

An equivalent plan in my state (MO) is 2.5x more expensive (monthly), with a higher deductible and fewer available in-network providers :(

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#459

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

jacquesm wrote: post #415
CPLX wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody said it was going to be simple. I'm just advocating that it not be completely and totally lacking in stated goals when it's such a severe policy intervention. Those goals could be complex, or detailed, or multivariate, or subject to contingencies and caveats. But they can't be non-existent and they can't be secret. This is a democracy. > The fact that SF does ok is a result of the shelter-in-place order, witho…

It sounds to me as though you do not trust your leaders to have your best interests at heart. The idea that everybody will go and pick apart the underlying data to support their favorite little theories may have something to do with the decision to keep the inputs confidential. You get one chance every so many years to vote in a government that you trust, you're going to have to accept that.

We do not, in fact, have to accept that. That's the value of having a limited government - if they misbehave, you can often just tell them no.

Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May

#460

Post by adrr »

icelancer wrote: post #419
adrr wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can start opening things up, it doesn't mean people will go out to eat, get haircuts, visit movie theaters, workout at a gym or travel. As long as the virus is out there and actively spreading, people will voluntarily shelter. Businesses will still go bankrupt as most retail stores and restaurants run at around breakeven in net income. Also there is the liability issue. If we want to get back to normal getting co…

>> If we want to get back to normal getting community spread to 0 should be the goal and we need to keep everything locked down to achieve that. Do you know what that will cost both in an acute USD fashion as well as the geopolitical and economic chronic fashion? I'm legitimately interested if you've thought through the externalities of this plan.

Economy will crash even if we open up and 50% of the population can’t participate due to age or having condition like obesity, diabetes or hypertension. People will continue to voluntarily shelter. Only way out of this getting Is community spread to near normal so we whole society can participate. Other countries have achieved this and will dominate economically. We are going to have food shortages because of our lack effort to control the virus.
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