This is bizarre... There is a statewide stay-at-home order in effect until further notice. Any less-restrictive orders, such as San Francisco's, are null and void.
Yes, just in case the state curbs their's abruptly.
The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
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Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
#422Earlier quoted context omitted.
You could argue it the other way from the same data. Given that public health officials jumped on it early and got us such a low death rate, maybe we should keep trusting their judgment and let them decide when it's safe to reopen.
That's insane. If they're hesitant to open up now, they will never feel comfortable opening up.
If you can point to something about the situation that has changed since the shelter-in-place was initiated that would indicate it's not needed anymore, I'd love to hear it. The virus hasn't gone away, we don't have any medications to make it reliably recoverable, we don't have test + trace ability in place (anecdotally, even if you're symptomatic but not in seriously bad condition it's still very difficult to get tested, let alone if you're not), we don't have herd immunity, there is no approved vaccine, etc. If the Bay Area opens up completely, exponential spread kicks in instantly with a high replication factor and in a month it'll look just like New York.
We are not through this in any way, shape, or form, even if it sucks. We've bought some time. If we did reopen now we'd probably be better off than if we hadn't shut down at all, but it'll still rip through the whole population, and unless we're ready to accept that, we've got to keep measures in place.
Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
#423Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not that SIP does nothing - it's that past a certain point, the rates are what they are. San Mateo and Santa Clara counties have seen a slight increase in the number of cases last week over the previous week. Other Bay Area counties have seen a slight decrease [1]. I don't see how increased traffic/travel as we're starting to see [2] will do anything other than increase transmissions. [1] https://projects.sfchro…
The rates staying flat rather than going up is already a success, not a sign that SIP has failed.
But if the rates stay the same, then all we're accomplishing is slowing the rate at which we reach herd immunity. If herd immunity is the strategy we're pursuing, then we should lift restrictions enough to meet hospital capacity, so we can get to herd immunity as quickly as possible and get the economy back to something approaching normal levels of activity.
If the strategy is actually suppression and elimination, then the lockdowns are not working (at least not here in Oregon, where daily number of new cases have been flat for about 2 weeks; I'm not sure what things look like in California).
Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
#424I'm lucky enough to have remote work. And I'm sure many HNers have a nice buffer of savings from their tech jobs to weather the storm or are getting paid time off. But can anyone share what it's like to not be in either of these situations? How are your rent lords handling things? I live abroad in a cheap country so I can handle zero income, but I wouldn't be able to last long if rent was $2000+/mo instead of the Yet…
It's a class divide, unfortunately. The people who are getting hit hardest are the people who were already getting hit hardest. Most of those don't frequent the same internet forums we do.
It's an incredible class divide:
* Essential workers (who make less) required to work and get infected at higher rates, both at work and from their essential worker housemates.
* We permit anyone (even non-essential workers) to hire a nanny, but let no one drop their kid off at a friend's house.
* Deep pocketed businesses like Broadcom can just declare themselves an essential business and mandate employees perfectly capable of working from home come into the office.
Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
#425If many people get very sick simultaneously, they would not only overwhelm hospitals, they would also inflict a disorderly, involuntary shutdown of large swaths of the economy, driven by fear -- instead of the orderly, voluntary shutdown we have at present, driven by government mandate. We all want to avoid that .
On the flip side, NYC just showed us they can suffer through 20% of the population becoming infected at about the same time without their hospitals utterly collapsing. There is probably some happy medium somewhere. For certain, flattening the curve so much that there are just a few new infections every week is not how we end the lock down.
It’s up to 25% with the latest study. https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/cuomo-outlines-reopeni...
Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
#426Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why would you not agree? It’s simple math. In most states, your weekly unemployment is half your salary, up to a cap. Under the CARES Act, you then add $600/week. So if that extra $600 is more than half your weekly paycheck, you earn more on unemployment. It works out to everyone earning less than about $62,000, which is more than half of people in most of the country. Pointing out that this creates a disincentive to…
Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't unemployment benefits temporary? Are these any different? I was reading through the tangled web of information at the DOL[0] and did not come away feeling certain one way or another. Do you really think not enough people working belongs near the top of our list of concerns at the moment? I have heard this line from every conservative I've talked to about this, and it just seems lik…
Yes, they're temporary. The concern is that if the shut down ends soon (seems unlikely but who knows) then it will delay an economic recovery until the temporary benefits expire. For a faster economic recovery we would want as many people getting back to work as possible. If you make more money not working, the rational choice is to wait for the temporary benefits to expire and then go back to work.
Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
#427I just noticed that it’s 75 days between March 17 and May 31. Wuhan’s lockdown was 76 days long.
The Wuhan lockdown was also far more strict.
And measures were not limited to Wuhan. By the time restrictions were lifted in Wuhan, the Chinese government had implemented quarantines, surveillance, contact tracing and testing procedures throughout the entire country. While here in the US we have a hodge-podge of approaches from each state with varying success, and no restriction of movement. Not saying we should adopt authoritarian policies, but we'll only have the virus under control when every US state has it under control.
Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
#428Serious question: if restrictions aren’t lifted now then will they be? What will be meaningfully different June 1st rather than May 1st? Is it shelter-in-place until we get more testing? Or the AppleGoogle contact tracing? Or is it shelter-in-place until a vaccine... in 18 months? What are the conditions required to start slowly relaxing the shutdown? Edit: I don’t understand the downvotes. I haven’t left my home for…
Probably downvotes because the answer to your question is the same as to 90% of all uninformed questions online - "we don't know". There are so many unknowns, things go day by day or week by week at best. I too get annoyed at the 1000'd idiot asking 'but will I be able to go on holiday in August?'. Not saying you're an idiot, just trying to explain why others, like me, would be annoyed at your post and would want to…
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Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
#429Anyone thinking of moving out?
Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
#430Earlier quoted context omitted.
You could argue it the other way from the same data. Given that public health officials jumped on it early and got us such a low death rate, maybe we should keep trusting their judgment and let them decide when it's safe to reopen.
That's insane. If they're hesitant to open up now, they will never feel comfortable opening up.
I think that's because nothings different then when it all started. If we open everything up we'll just see new cases again