Sweden didn't shut down. Hospitals are not overwhelmed. Cases have plateaued • Hacker News Board

Re: Sweden didn't shut down. Hospitals are not overwhelmed. Cases have plateaued

#21

Post by Herodotus38 » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 10:28 PM UTC

davidw wrote: post #17

Herodotus38 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden’s population is 10 million. They have had 2194 deaths as per the WHO’s latest data: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... The US has a population 328 million, or roughly 33 times higher. On the face of it with rough calculations their per capita death rate if it was the Us would be around 70k deaths vs the 40k deaths we have so far. So I think it’s a good point you bring up.

> 40k deaths we have so far. You're off by at least 10,000.

Ok so 50,000, maybe 60,000 but I think the point about Sweden having a higher per capita death rate stands at this point. Sure, in a week these numbers may change but based on the current numbers I think it is not controversial.

Re: Sweden didn't shut down. Hospitals are not overwhelmed. Cases have plateaued

#22

Post by mieses » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 10:40 PM UTC

keithnz wrote: post #16

not sure they are a shining example, they are just over twice the population of NZ, they have had over 2000 deaths, we have had 19. Yesterday we had 1 new case. Today in NZ is the first day out of our strictest level of lockdown and a large number of businesses are going back to work as long as they follow strict distancing, and safe interactions. Also public facing businesses can't open, if you are a shop, you need…

There are some relevant differences between Sweden and New Zealand.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/21/sweden-coronavirus-anti...

Re: Sweden didn't shut down. Hospitals are not overwhelmed. Cases have plateaued

#23

Post by davidw » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 10:47 PM UTC

cryptonector wrote: post #18

kilroy_jones wrote: post #3

And all it took was a few thousand unnecessary deaths. Vietnam and Taiwan temporarily shutdown, and the former had 0 deaths while the latter has had less than 10.

Hmm? Plenty of countries that did shutdown did experience "a few thousand unnecessary deaths". What's your point? OP's and/or TFA's point, as well as many people's who talk about this, seems to be that Sweden is faring as well as its neighbors that did shutdown. That's a big deal. And did Taiwan shutdown? IIRC they did not. They were able to get way ahead of everyone and stop the spread of covid-19. Since most other…

> faring as well as its neighbors

It isn't though. Look at the number of deaths in Norway and Finland, and adjust based on population. Sweden is not doing very well. Perhaps, long term, the other countries catch up if they go through a cycle of opening up some and shutting down, but we don't know that now.

Re: Sweden didn't shut down. Hospitals are not overwhelmed. Cases have plateaued

#24

Post by tomohawk » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 11:40 PM UTC

Marazan wrote: post #8

Sweden banned international flights from outside of Europe. Sweden banned gathering of more than 50 people. Sweden closed down the universities. Sweden permanently closed down 5 restraunts this weekend for flouting social distancing rules. And, most importantly, their cases are not plataueing, their deaths are not plataueing. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6...

Looks like a plataue to me

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-mi...

These both use the same data, but the rolling average shows the trend.

Re: Sweden didn't shut down. Hospitals are not overwhelmed. Cases have plateaued

#25

Post by 3fe9a03ccd14ca5 » Mon, Apr 27, 2020, 11:42 PM UTC

burner831234 wrote: post #5

3fe9a03ccd14ca5 wrote: post #2

How’s their economy?

What are you attempting to say/equivocate?

Was it some kind of forbidden question?

Re: Sweden didn't shut down. Hospitals are not overwhelmed. Cases have plateaued

#26

Post by jinushaun » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 1:10 AM UTC

Congrats to Sweden for "only" having 2,000 dead. Tell that to the over 56,000 dead Americans despite lockdown.

Also, Sweden is under de facto lockdown even if they don't want to call it that.

Re: Sweden didn't shut down. Hospitals are not overwhelmed. Cases have plateaued

#27

Post by new_realist » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 1:49 AM UTC

tomohawk wrote: post #24

Marazan wrote: post #8

Sweden banned international flights from outside of Europe. Sweden banned gathering of more than 50 people. Sweden closed down the universities. Sweden permanently closed down 5 restraunts this weekend for flouting social distancing rules. And, most importantly, their cases are not plataueing, their deaths are not plataueing. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6...

Looks like a plataue to me https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-mi... These both use the same data, but the rolling average shows the trend.

Sweden’s tolling average “peaked” two days ago. That’s not enough time to say anything definitive.

Re: Sweden didn't shut down. Hospitals are not overwhelmed. Cases have plateaued

#28

Post by keithnz » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 2:24 AM UTC

mieses wrote: post #22

keithnz wrote: post #16

not sure they are a shining example, they are just over twice the population of NZ, they have had over 2000 deaths, we have had 19. Yesterday we had 1 new case. Today in NZ is the first day out of our strictest level of lockdown and a large number of businesses are going back to work as long as they follow strict distancing, and safe interactions. Also public facing businesses can't open, if you are a shop, you need…

There are some relevant differences between Sweden and New Zealand. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/21/sweden-coronavirus-anti...

what do you think are the relevant differences?

Re: Sweden didn't shut down. Hospitals are not overwhelmed. Cases have plateaued

#29

Post by erikig » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 3:04 AM UTC

jinushaun wrote: post #26

Congrats to Sweden for "only" having 2,000 dead. Tell that to the over 56,000 dead Americans despite lockdown. Also, Sweden is under de facto lockdown even if they don't want to call it that.

That said, it is important to note that Sweden has one of the highest death rates in the world. Almost 40% higher than the US and at least 200-300% that of its neighbors.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-mi...

If the US had the same death rate, the total deaths would be closer to 80,000

Re: Sweden didn't shut down. Hospitals are not overwhelmed. Cases have plateaued

#30

Post by Marazan » Tue, Apr 28, 2020, 7:21 AM UTC

tomohawk wrote: post #24

Marazan wrote: post #8

Sweden banned international flights from outside of Europe. Sweden banned gathering of more than 50 people. Sweden closed down the universities. Sweden permanently closed down 5 restraunts this weekend for flouting social distancing rules. And, most importantly, their cases are not plataueing, their deaths are not plataueing. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6...

Looks like a plataue to me https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-mi... These both use the same data, but the rolling average shows the trend.

That chart is garbage for Sweden, it is in no way a 7 day average of the arcgis data I posted.

The official death total by day of death has a massive lag, if the out world in data chart was actually a 7 day average of it there would be a huge drop over the last week.