Earlier quoted context omitted.
THEY are the ones who need to take extra precautions.
No, your right to shed virus particles ends at the tip of my nose.
That's a nice platitude you've got there. Too bad it means basically nothing.
The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
81–90 of 893 posts
Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
#82Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…
I think this is a lot like finishing your full 7 day medication treatment, even though you feel fine on day 3.
That said, I don't know when and how the right way to wind down is, and I don't think anyone else does either. I'm glad we're doing this in a decentralized way over 50 states, so many different strategies can be tried.
I would also add that we who can WFH with full wages do well to remember millions of already less well off people have been left without income and life structure, and they're not just complaining because they're spoiled children!
Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
#83Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've seen you say similar things in a few other threads, and myself and others have said, every time: the risk to everyone is that the hospitals become overwhelmed. They are not right now because of stay-at-home orders. What you think of as failure - hospitals currently low utilization - is in fact success .
You can ease up on the lockdown without ending it. That's what I read the parent to be implying.
Ease up how? I mean, what's the specific proposal? The lockdown isn't "total" anyway -- very large numbers of people are still working at full salary (including, it must be pointed out, probably more than half the readers of this very site). There's little to no low hanging fruit of safe jobs that can be reopened. Just go look at the California list of "essential" jobs and tell us what needs to be added.
Fundamentally this is just a complicated strawman. People are arguing against "lockdown" but not in favor of another option. But we were all here in late march and we know what this disease does without containment.
Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
#84Earlier quoted context omitted.
THEY are the ones who need to take extra precautions.
Thankfully, you appear to be overwhelmingly outvoted in this "let's set up a peeing section for the swimming pool" position. Lockdown measures and the activist governors pursuing them are, for the moment, overwhelmingly popular --- the population as a whole is strongly more concerned that lockdowns will end too early, and strongly more worried that they will suffer health consequences from C19 than that they'll suffe…
You are a fascist.
Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
#85Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…
I've been wondering for a while what the end game is. There seems to only be 3 options: 1: Lockdown forever. 2: Everyone becomes immune. 3: Vaccine. 1 is unrealistic. 3 will take a year. 2 the lockdown is too effective - we need at least some people to get infected, and hospitals to be utilized at a manageable rate. Is there a 4th option I did not think of? Because I can't figure out how they are going to end this. I…
This sounds like a false tricotomy (see what I did there?). Taiwan has effectively contained the outbreak with fewer than 500 cumulative cases for their very dense population of 23m. Unfortunately we can't go back and act swiftly in the beginning like they did, so we'll never approach that level of success, but we can take some lessons from what they continue to do.
I was there in January and February and had my temperature taken routinely to enter populous shopping areas, tourist-packed areas, transit, etc. Mask usage was mandatory in some cases, like buses. They ensured they had sufficient inventory of masks, and even published it so that you could look up which pharmacy to go to. There were lines down the block outside of them, but they also had a reliable ration available for anyone who would wait.
State-side, I haven't had my temperature checked once. Even when I reentered the US, there wasn't so much as a thermal camera to walk in front of (that I could see, anyway). This was the procedure upon entering both Taiwan and transiting through Japan all the way back in January when cases in Taiwan were in the single digits. I can't even find a single mask here.
People were sensible and conscientious there. People voluntarily cut back their social behaviors, but they haven't enacted a hard shut down. It seems to me that we just haven't implemented any common sense behaviors and expect Trump/the governor/Fauci/whoever to come up with some genius plan to solve the crisis for us.
Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
#86Earlier quoted context omitted.
Thankfully, you appear to be overwhelmingly outvoted in this "let's set up a peeing section for the swimming pool" position. Lockdown measures and the activist governors pursuing them are, for the moment, overwhelmingly popular --- the population as a whole is strongly more concerned that lockdowns will end too early, and strongly more worried that they will suffer health consequences from C19 than that they'll suffe…
Sadly you seem to be of the opinion that we can cower in our homes until the disease magically goes away. That's not the way this works - it doesn't just go away. I'm really disturbed by the number of people who seem to be perfectly happy moving the goalposts for these lockdowns as long as they're politically popular. Here's a hint - freedom and constitutional rights weren't intended to be politically popular (or par…
I understand people have strong feelings on this issue, but you can argue your position without using language like "cower" and "magically".
Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
#87Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…
To anyone reading the comment above, it is extremely poor advice and should not be followed. Stay at home and shelter in place orders are not solely for the purpose of protecting ones-self from contracting the virus. They also serve to limit the spread from unsuspecting carriers. You can carry and spread the virus unknowingly and this will result in susceptible people contracting it and dying. The only way we know th…
> The only way we know that shelter in place orders worked is if they feel like an overreaction after this is all over with.
That makes no sense whatsoever. Millions of children are not vaccinated because of the lockdown. Will the mayor take responsibility for his share of deaths that will occur? Will there be a counter for that, that ticks up every day? And for all the pain and suffering of those that can't afford gratuitous shutdowns?
Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
#88Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…
I've seen you say similar things in a few other threads, and myself and others have said, every time: the risk to everyone is that the hospitals become overwhelmed. They are not right now because of stay-at-home orders. What you think of as failure - hospitals currently low utilization - is in fact success .
If we expect a roughly fixed number of people to eventually need hospitalization, then underutilizing hospital capacity is a waste of very expensive shutdown time.
The shutdown is preventing quite a bit of sickness, disability and death from occurring during the course of the shutdown. If we could indeed maintain a shutdown forever, and if that would reduce the total amount of sickness, death, etc, then maybe it follows that an indefinite shutdown would have value to weigh against the cost. But those are some seriously questionable assumptions. What actually seems to be happening is that we are delaying people getting sick, and the value of that is not self-evident.
I am suspicious that much of the COVID-19 response is based on pretending that it is a severe pandemic flu with a comparable fatality rate. With a flu, shutting the world down until summer or until a new flu vaccine can be mass produced has clear value. But COVID-19 is not the flu.
Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
#89Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've seen you say similar things in a few other threads, and myself and others have said, every time: the risk to everyone is that the hospitals become overwhelmed. They are not right now because of stay-at-home orders. What you think of as failure - hospitals currently low utilization - is in fact success .
Here in BC we don't have such restrictive conditions, and yet we still have very few cases. Vancouver has about 76% of the population of SF, but has half the number of cases. Restricting people to be at home has no benefit, no logic behind it, but has significant repercussions on mental health.
Seriously? No benefit, no logic?
Re: The San Francisco Bay Area shelter-in-place order is being extended through May
#90Blanket lockdown has to end. This policy has outlived its usefulness, and is harming people's quality of life without a clear goal. The initial premise of the "flatten the curve" memes was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. The shelter-in-place has not only had this effect, it's been too effective. Hospital utilization in the bay area is at around 10% when you count surge capacity that has been added [1]. Meanwhile, da…
To anyone reading the comment above, it is extremely poor advice and should not be followed. Stay at home and shelter in place orders are not solely for the purpose of protecting ones-self from contracting the virus. They also serve to limit the spread from unsuspecting carriers. You can carry and spread the virus unknowingly and this will result in susceptible people contracting it and dying. The only way we know th…
> The only way we know that shelter in place orders worked is if they feel like an overreaction after this is all over with.
That's the only way to know? You think it's reasonable to take away the civil liberties of seven million people indefinitely without at least trying to come up with a better performance metric than that?
You have literally no interest in setting up any kind of plan to assess how the policy is working?