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In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

reuters.com

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Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#621

Post by ineedasername »

jwlake wrote: post #137

One of the super-interesting things here, is that apparently everyone was in the specific window where they test positive for the virus. This implies the population was recently infected, had not been previously infected, and it spread almost completely within a tight window. This implies a shocking high R(effective) for that population. In 2 weeks we'll have super interesting data one way of the other on the CFR.

The CFR will be an interesting (though tragic) data point, but I wouldn't generalize too much from it. The demographics of the inmates are probably not representative, and the health care that prisoners receive is absolutely not of the same quality that civilians may receive.

The Princess cruise was a good indicator of CFR for a specific demographic range when they tested early, often, and had access to quality care. If the CFR of this prison will tell us anything, it will be a counterpoint to such information showing what happens when quality of care is greatly diminished.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#622

Post by aisofteng »

klmadfejno wrote: post #580
FiberBundle wrote: post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a region in Italy they tested [1] people twice, 2 weeks apart, and found that 43% were completely asymptomatic over the course of the infection. [1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20053157v...

About 50% of the population in that study is over 50. I think it's a bad idea to draw generic conclusions about the disease from a diverse age range. You end up with conclusions that aren't relevant to either. Glossing over the tables I don't see any data about symptomatic over the two weeks by age. I'd be shocked if the rates of becoming symptomatic are not much higher for the elderly and much lower for the young. D…

See: Simpson’s paradox, where trends in subgroups, taken together, can indicate a different trend.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#623

Post by Bnshsysjab »

peteretep wrote: post #401
Bnshsysjab wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn’t prisons disproportionately have poorer health than average for several reasons?

Basic healthcare in prison is free (I believe?), and I reckon the food is comparatively less likely to give you diabetes?

Even then I imagine the financially and socially disadvantaged would be more likely to end up in jail, who are unlikely to be in good health to begin with.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#624

Post by rstuart4133 »

Retric wrote: post #569
_-___________-_ wrote: post #521

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do note that rapid decline in the day-to-day increase of case numbers is not necessarily indicative of rapid decline in transmission rate. Transmission rate could have declined gradually over the course of a week or more, and the rapid decline in day-to-day increase of case numbers could have just been detection catching up with existing infections.

Their daily testing was reasonably consistent over that time period. So, their is some wiggle room, but it’s at minimum a 80% drop over 2 weeks. Compared to the US where daily numbers are steady for weeks with the last two days having the greatest number of detected cases.

I've given up on the USA numbers. There is no way an underlying exponential process is going to deliver you a near constant 30K new infections for nearly 4 straight weeks.

Something else is driving those numbers, and it ain't the actual number of new infections. For me the obvious candidate is they hits some testing limit.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#625

Post by wegs »

sharken wrote: post #568
wegs wrote: post #538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's an accurate argument for why it'd be nice if COVID19 would be not serious. Wishful thinking doesn't make it not serious. Deaths are telling for who is dead, not for who is at risk of lung damage, compromised immune system, or other consequences.

It's all in the eye of the beholder: Africa have registered 1,297 deaths with a population of 1.2 billion ( https://www.africanews.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-in-africa-... ). Given the fact that 8.8 million die yearly, i'd say that for Africa this disease can be classified as 'not serious'.

You're missing the point.

If I break both of your legs, that's serious. You're not dead.

If you catch AIDS, that's pretty serious. You're also not dead for a pretty long time.

If I poke your eyes out, that's serious. You're also not dead.

You've redefined a serious medical problem at one which kills you. COVID19 disables far more people than it kills. We don't know how many more, and we won't know for quite a while. With lung damage, most doctors believe the damage is permanent, but some believe people will recover in a decade or two. With other organ damage, we're just speculating.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#626

Post by wegs »

Zach_the_Lizard wrote: post #256
edmundsauto wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On 1), what do you consider "not that serious"? IE, what are your metrics of choice, and what are the acceptable values? Regarding the cost-benefit discussion, my perspective is that people only want to discuss the downsides from a reduced economy. Second order effects include reduced vehicle deaths, reduced deaths from pollution, etc. IE, my discussions has felt agenda driven because it considers first order effects…

>On 1), what do you consider "not that serious"? Death rates, hospitalization rates, etc. As mentioned before, 20% of NY deaths are nursing home patients. 37% are 80 or older. I'm on mobile and a bit lazy, but check out death rates for the flu in younger populations and compare them to this virus. The virus has a higher mortality rate but not enough to be worth worrying about in younger populations. >Regarding the co…

If you're adding everything up, please don't omit the costs of long-term disability from COVID19-related lung damage. That swings the numbers completely.

If it were just 3.6% of the US population dying, I would understand the economic versus public health argument. It comes down to values at that point: how much is a human life worth?

But that changes completely when you consider how many people we'll either need to support for decades, or who will have lower economic output. Those costs get astronomical, and at least by my ballpark estimates, align public health with economic outcomes completely.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#627

Post by axguscbklp »

code_duck wrote: post #613
axguscbklp wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The media is not monolithic, but a large subset of it is fervently against Trump, against Trump supporters, and against Republicans in general. The worse the pandemic and shutdown get, the more this subset of the media can use it to bash Trump, Trump supporters, and Republicans. Generally speaking, the worse the economy gets, the less likely that the incumbent president will be re-elected. I don't think that this med…

How do you feel about the right-wing media that was obsessively critical about Obama for strangely irrelevant things such as his choice of mustard or color of suits? It seems to me that almost all of the criticism of Trump is well justified by his incoherence, rudeness, anti-intellectualism, blatant nepotism, lack of structure, refusal to divest, repeated untruthful statements, lack of logical consistency, questionab…

>How do you feel about the right-wing media that was obsessively critical about Obama for strangely irrelevant things such as his choice of mustard or color of suits?

I feel that it was idiotic propaganda.

>It seems to me that almost all of the criticism of Trump is well justified by his incoherence, rudeness, anti-intellectualism, blatant nepotism, lack of structure, refusal to divest, repeated untruthful statements, lack of logical consistency, questionable policies, and apparent tendency towards cronyism.

The problem as I see it is too many Trump haters go beyond the many valid reasons to hate him and instead, due to conscious or subconscious bias, start to do things like take things he says out of context, or read more into those things than is necessarily justifiable, or try to paint him as a uniquely evil figure even though we have had presidents in recent memory who literally supported death squads in third world countries... etc.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#628

Post by venning »

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #576
venning wrote: post #469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Wikipedia article doesn't cover everything. Reference for the sibling comment: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3959940/

That article has 1906 (her engagement as cook in the Warren household) to 1932 (her paralysis) as the period of her infection of others, assuming after her paralysis she didn't infect anyone else. That's still not 38 years; it's not especially important a point - she infected others over at least 2 extended periods amounting to mor than a couple of decades in total. It's interesting to me, I thought nih.gov was a sci…

> ... 1906 ... to 1932 ... as the period of her infection of others ... That's still not 38 years ...

I never stated that she infected others for 38 years. Being an asymptomatic carrier does not require continually infecting others, only that the carrier maintains the infection without showing symptoms. [1] Additionally, the NIH article isn't complete in listing likely infections, as evidenced by comparing it to the Wikipedia article. Nor does is state that she continued to infect others until her paralysis in 1932.

As for the 38 years, the Wikipedia article notes 1900 as the first known, likely infection of a family she worked for. Then, from the NIH article:

> A post mortem revealed that she shed Salmonella typhi bacteria from her gallstones ...

Her death (and, presumably, post mortem) was in 1938. "Bacterial shedding" [2] implies infection and, thus, being a carrier in 1938, though asymptomatic. I arrived at 38 years by considering her likely a carrier from 1900 to 1938.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asymptomatic_carrier

[2] https://www.google.com/search?q=bacterial+shedding

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#629

Post by CryptoPunk »

pgsbathhouse2 wrote: post #606
CryptoPunk wrote: post #548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Economic institutions sustain people's lives. Declining productivity translates to loss in life expectancy.

The ability to produce food or manufacturer essential items doesn't suddenly disappear. If you think money flow suddenly makes things disappear remove your brain worm. You know what can disappear, become depleted, or stretched to thin? Trained medical personal. And money flow can't replenish that resource.

First of all, please don't be uncivil. Getting upset and insulting people is no way to discuss a complex issue.

As for your post; that ability gradually disappears, just as it gradually builds up when the economy is functioning properly.

Capital depreciates. A washing machine breaks down, and in the absence of a repair service provider, or an ability to pay them, the washing machine loses its utility, and a person's quality of life regresses, which has long term implications for their health.

Beyond simple equipment malfunctions, the complex interplay of incentives, trust and relationships that constitutes a productive enterprise are also disrupted and destroyed by shocks and bankrupties.

It takes years to get a productive enterprise up and running. The bankruptcies happening now will hurt the production of goods/services for years to come.

Fewer goods/services translates to a lower quality of life from less labor-saving specialization/technology, which in turn increases the strain on individuals, and thereby reduces their life expectancy.

The economic factors that affect life expectancy are far more numerous and complex than an inert piece of equipment for harvesting crops or manufacturing goods, and your analysis ignores all of that.

You should at least be able to grasp the implications of the statistical evidence, which clearly show that all things being held equal, every percentile drop in GDP is associated with a drop in life expectancy.

To discount the Economy's relevance to human life is deeply misinformed.

>>You know what can disappear, become depleted, or stretched to thin? Trained medical personal. And money flow can't replenish that resource.

Completely irrelevant to my point. I wasn't suggesting that minimizing strain on the healtcare system isn't important, or even that it isn't more important than avoiding doing some amount of harm to the general economy.

I was simply contesting your claim that the Economy is irrelevant to sustaining human life. I am criticizing how you rudely implied that even suggesting the damage to it should be weighed against the deaths caused by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, deserves nothing but derision and contempt.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#630

Post by Fjolsvith »

dotancohen wrote: post #453
Fjolsvith wrote: post #415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A prison is very much like a cruise ship from a viral perspective. Prisons are much worse. Chow line with men almost heel to toe. Commissary line. Med line. Recycled air. Big crowds in small spaces.

> Prisons are much worse. Chow line with men almost > heel to toe. Commissary line. Med line. Recycled > air. Big crowds in small spaces. How could the prison be much worse than the cruise ship you just described?

Stress.
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