Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

reuters.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

551–560 of 649 posts

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#551

Post by The_Double »

toshk wrote: post #260
Peter-Jan wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> causing it to completely spiral out of control. I live in the Netherlands and I think you could say that we actually have it quite under control (relatively speaking of course). We never reached peak ICU capacity and the ICU occupancy has been steadily declining for more than two weeks now[1]. Our schools for children between the ages of 4 and 12 are scheduled to partially open again on the 11th of may[2]. [1] http…

We, the Netherlands, got it under control because we went into stricter lockdown against the advice of the RIVM. Above assumptions led to advice against a lockdown. Only under pressure of the IC doctors on Sunday the 15th of march did the prime minister close all schools and restaurants. (A high school is like a festival every day) The policy and advice of RIVM has been wrong and misleading from the end of February.…

The data doesn't support any of this. Overlaying the R0 estimation and the date that interventions were taken shows that the original "stay home when sick, wash hands and don't shake" advise had the biggest effect. This also matches most research that has been done on influenza. The lockdown on schools and restaurants had a much lower effect.https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/corona-onder-co...

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#552

Post by [deleted] »

danieltillett wrote: post #478
justnotworthit wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We know from the cruise ship data like the Diamond Princess that most people had no symptoms initially, but overtime most people became symptomatic [1]. Your wording is too strong. Data is 50% asymptomatic at time of testing, paper models that that number dropped to 20%. > from paper on 19 February and 50.5% (320/634) on 20 February (Table). Soon after identification of the first infections, both symptomatic and as…

If you read in the discussion they reference other data sets to show that more asymptomatic become symptomatic. It is also what the Icelanders found with their data too where most people started out asymptomatic, but many later developed symptoms.

[deleted]

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#553

Post by sharken »

edmundsauto wrote: post #298
sharken wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are quite a lot of people that fear the operation will be successful but the patient is dead with the Corona actions being taken. Case in point, 26.5 million americans have sought unemployment benefits ( https://vastuullisuusuutiset.fi/en/weben/women-bear-brunt-of... ). The deaths in New York are quite telling for who is at risk, see https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109867/coronavirus-deat... . Over 90% of the…

Your argument supports the statement that coronavirus is not as dangerous for young people compared to old people. And that it's really serious for old people. There remains a required link to why this isn't serious for young people. And from there, an argument that this situation is better than the other scenarios (including 2nd order effects from other scenarios).

I think nobody has all the answers yet, but it looks like the state of your immune system along with age is a key factor.

See https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/30/what-explains-coronaviru...

That could explain why Monaco and Japan have not seen a lot of deaths, while Italy and Spain for example have.

In the US it would help immensely i think, if obesity and hypertension became a focus area when this crisis is over.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#554

Post by FiberBundle »

danieltillett wrote: post #543
FiberBundle wrote: post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a region in Italy they tested [1] people twice, 2 weeks apart, and found that 43% were completely asymptomatic over the course of the infection. [1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20053157v...

Doesn’t that mean that 57% were symptomatic?

I didn't intend to contradict you. Granted it's totally valid to assume that many people who are tested positive and show no symptoms might develop some later, but I just thought it might be of interest to some people to have numbers where they tested patients twice over a long enough interval to conclude that they really were asymptomatic.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#555

Post by bob33212 »

_-___________-_ wrote: post #524
reddothomme wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many migrant workers in Singapore are the only breadwinners for their families back home in Bangladesh/India/Myanmar. One of the reasons the Singapore government has done extensive testing way beyond global standards is that many of these foreign workers are financially disincentivized to seek medical help the moment the first symptoms appear. The fact that Singapore's leader has publicly promised stable incomes for…

It would be extremely alarming if there were large numbers of deaths or hospital admissions occurring among the Singapore workers who are testing positive. Given that there are virtually none, the lack of testing in other ASEAN countries is hardly extremely alarming . A lack of data is less concerning if you wouldn't do anything differently if you had the data.

If it turns out that the infection rate is higher and the death rate is lower for healthy individuals than originally estimated it would be extremely alarming that were are not taking a totally different approach to handling this pandemic

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#556

Post by matwood »

Laforet wrote: post #320
shakna wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> antibody surveys were supposed to be the definitive proof that we were responsibly waiting for. Simple question: Why? For most coronaviruses, antibodies reflect only a temporary immunity, that is usual gone in 6-24 months, due to the nature of these viruses. All an antibody survey shows is that antibodies can be created, not that they are effective long term. Showing a longer term immunity takes statistical analysi…

I think the argument being made is less about lasting immunity but reevaluating the actual risks for the general population. 8 million people live in NYC and there has been 0.155 million confirmed cases so far. If the actual infection rate is 20% then that represents a 10 fold overestimation of morbidity and mortality. A good place to keep an eye on for the short term would be Sweden. Despite the lack of lockdown the…

> If the actual infection rate is 20% then that represents a 10 fold overestimation of morbidity and mortality.

10 fold over what? A problem since the beginning is that many people are confusing CFR and IFR. Worse is when people compare the IFR of COVID-19 to the CFR of the flu. Regardless, the IFR for COVID-19 has been thought to be .5-1% since the beginning. If we assume the NY antibody study is mostly correct (even with the sampling errors), I believe it puts the IFR in the .5-1% range [1]. If that IFR holds it still means 1.6-3.3M deaths in the US assuming the healthcare does not get overwhelmed.

[1]

deaths/(cases x 10 fold) x 100 == IFR

21908/(288313 x 10) x 100 == ~.75%

Data pulled from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ on 4/26/2020 @ 8am EST.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#557

Post by ninkendo »

TylerE wrote: post #443
Fjolsvith wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see them advertising it like that.

The table settings might be nicer, but it's still a chowline of people asses-to-elbows. https://c8.alamy.com/comp/B5D6CE/breakfast-buffet-served-onb...

We could make the same dumb jokes about:

Popular restaurants, clubs, sporting events, concerts, movie theaters, stores on Black Friday, etc etc etc.

(Personally, I’ve been on 5 different cruises and they’ve each been among the best vacations of my life. But lol lots of people so they must be just like prisons amirite?)

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#558

Post by JoeAltmaier »

k2enemy wrote: post #92
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #84

Lets not get too excited about this. Whatever the numbers, that's interesting and worth recording for planning. But whatever they are, they result in "way too many deaths". This is still a very dangerous and rapidly-spreading virus.

Where is the cutoff between "way too many deaths" and not too many deaths? I don't mean to be glib, but it is an important question that needs to be weighed against destroying all of our economic institutions.

Strawman. Weigh it against suspension of economic institutions, new rules to mitigate the damage, and new institutions that operate on more rational basis.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#559

Post by JoeAltmaier »

CryptoPunk wrote: post #548
pgsbathhouse2 wrote: post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that needs to be weighed against destroying all of our economic institutions. No it doesn't. Like the statement alone doesn't even have any credence, let alone following through with it. Incredibly daft.

Economic institutions sustain people's lives. Declining productivity translates to loss in life expectancy.

If everything else remains unchanged. Which it isn't. Changes are happening every day.

And nobody plans to stay in this mode forever. Medicine is making tremendous progress at an astonishing rate. They just need time.

Stay patient.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#560

Post by KaiserPro »

gridlockd wrote: post #540
tim333 wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

PCR is pretty selective for SARS-CoV-2

I'm trying to figure out what tests they used. PCR is very specific but only works reliably in the early stages and generally has a high false negative rate. Antibody tests only work after several days of infection, but some of them are not very specific to SARS-CoV2 and therefore have a high false positive rate. So you really need use both tests, but you can't just OR the results together, because then a faulty anti…

> but only works reliably in the early stages

No, it only works if there is enough virus to be detected. If you are infected, you will have a high enough count to be detected. Each type of PCR test is highly selective. The point of them is that they can differentiate between many types of virus, depending on how its setup.

> Antibody tests only work after several days of infection

Yes. Depending on the type of test, and how its done. it can be up to a month before these tests are accurate.

Post reply on HN