Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The Changing World Order

principles.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

91–100 of 117 posts

Re: The Changing World Order

#91

Post by tanilama »

api wrote: post #5
airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

Wasn't quite a lot of what you say about China true about the USA in the 19th century? Not saying the cases are the same and I am skeptical of grand historical theses, but I don't think you can glibly dismiss China either. Personally I see China replacing a superpower, but the superpower being replaced is Russia. Russia is by nearly every metric declining and much faster than the USA. The question is whether the USA…

Russia is objectively no longer a superpower but a shell of its past self.

US after Cold War and before 2008 will be remembered as a very special country by history. China or the post great recession US can only imagine that power and influence, they can't match it.

Re: The Changing World Order

#92

Post by snowmaker »

seibelj wrote: post #15

Everything Ray Dalio writes he presents like the prophet come down from high to give us the Sacred Truths. Dalio is a successful trader and is beyond wealthy. He’s a smart guy who has a true interest in history. But he is just one opinion of many and he is absolutely not saying things that are uniquely known to him. I read the whole thing and it’s like, “Powerful countries decline! Declining power leads to social str…

I agree that no one insight in this essay is especially surprising. But I think the right way to think about this is Paul Graham's framework http://www.paulgraham.com/sun.html. Paul points out that if you are talking about very general topics, even a small delta of novelty is useful.

I think that describes Ray's work here well. He is talking about a very general topic (the narrative arc of history). It's hard to say anything completely new about a topic like that, but something that is only slightly new is still valuable.

Re: The Changing World Order

#93

Post by sremani »

dang wrote: post #59
sremani wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zeihan and George Friedman are really good. After getting perspective from reading them, prepared to be annoyed by geopolitical commentary on HN.

Generic dissing of other commenters just adds noise to HN. If you know more than others, why not share some of what you know so we all can learn? (Edit: I originally wrote "one of the worst ways to add noise". That was overkill; it gets worse.)

It is a qualitative analysis done by an enthusiastic amateur (me). You may disagree, and it is perhaps noise. Who knows!

Re: The Changing World Order

#94

Post by lonelappde »

magicsmoke wrote: post #86
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think at the end of the day if a country's strongest asset is its "demand", that is, its ability to consume goods and services instead of produce them, then i think that country is in for a world of hurt.

A country's demand is linked to its supply. After all, it has to pay for the goods it demands with something.

That's a very loose link in a world where fiat currency and reserve currency exist for printing money.

Re: The Changing World Order

#95

Post by thedudeabides5 »

dforrestwilson wrote: post #71
eointierney wrote: post #68

The world order, in terms of socio-economic and politico-legal structures, is for sure changing, but it's more a matter of demographics and communication. We have shattered certain assumptions about the world economy to ensure the continuing welfare of the oldest of us. This is an unprecedented act of selflessness by everyone younger than seventy-ish, because we love our elders so. The real change in the world order…

Lots of people seem to believe that Ray Dalio knows anything, with anymore certainty than we do. In financial circles the man is not taken seriously, and allegations of fraud have been whispered for years now. I would be curious to know why anyone believes that Ray Dalio should be taken seriously here?

I’ve worked personally w Ray and can attest he’s the real deal.

If the “financial circles” you run with don’t respect $100bn+ AUM, there not really “financial circles,” sorry.

If you want to make up your own mind, take a look at their work on debt crises. Sometimes hard to see how it connects to day to day trading, but not the hallmarks of a fraud.

https://www.bridgewater.com/big-debt-crises/Principles-For-N...

All that being said, still think he’s wrong about China.

Re: The Changing World Order

#96

Post by lonelappde »

Alekhine wrote: post #78
justinzollars wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. When I visited China, I felt like I was in the future. We have fallen behind, and we literarily have shipped the "Arsenal of Democracy" to China. Their airports are bigger and better, the high speed rail was amazing, and the subway system was simple to navigate. China has innovated in important ways - they have beat us to 5G, and they have weapons systems…

Who gives a damn if their infrastructure is new and modern? Was that technology developed in China? It's possible, but I doubt it. And what kind of visit was this where you were inspecting their weapon systems, and ascertained that they could take out the best of what the American military has, based on some knowledge of military technology you magically have?

Technology still works even if it's copied. Don't confusing "copying" with "only copying". Modern US tech is in large part created by Chinese emigrants and their children. Do you think every technologist emigrated?

Infrastructure is a sign of a healthy economy and capability to build a war machine.

Re: The Changing World Order

#97

Post by lonelappde »

airstrike wrote: post #76
nopinsight wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is doing most things right according to endogenous growth theory. Exports help it grow faster but are not the most essential part of the equation. China's export is only ~20% of its 2018 GDP. https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/china/exports/ "Endogenous growth theory holds that investment in human capital, innovation, and knowledge are significant contributors to economic growth." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/En…

> US population: ~330 million; EU, ~450 million => Total: 780 million. China's population: ~1400 million. Domestic demand is clearly not China's disadvantage. Population size doesn't paint a full picture. China's GDP per capita is still less than a third of the US. A lot of those 1.4 billion have absolutely appalling living standards.

Appalling living standards sucks for those people, but that doesn't make China less of a world power.

Re: The Changing World Order

#98

Post by lonelappde »

clairity wrote: post #17
marktolson wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look at China's GDP over the last 2 decades. It has grown exponentially. At this rate they'll surpass the US this decade or next. You cant just move manufacturing elsewhere. China have perfected low cost mass manufacturing. It's not just beacuse labour is cheaper. That used to be the case but now they are innovating at a huge scale.

economics lectures i attended a decade ago indicated that china has already surpassed the US in gdp, but to give us face and to not decelerate their growth, china manipulates their numbers and monetary policy to keep up appearances that the US is still larger. china has 4x our population and growing like a weed. it’s naive to think they haven’t/won’t/can’t eclipse the US economy. it’s another reason we should overhau…

In publicly announced numbers, China has larger GDP by purchasing power parity. (I'm not sure if that's equivalent to your currency manipulation interpretation.)

Re: The Changing World Order

#99

Post by lonelappde »

tryptophan wrote: post #37
viburnum wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know successful hedge funds profit more from insider trading than from any kind of analytical wizardry, right?

Lol. Dalio is too big to bother with insider trading. With $160bill under management, that leaves like what, ~50 companies he can't just buy outright in the entire world? Please stop watching Billions and thinking it represents anything close to reality.

He can't buy all the companies. That's only 1% of just the NYSE market cap.

What is the max size of asset that can profit 4%/yr alpha from insider trading?

Re: The Changing World Order

#100

Post by magicsmoke »

lonelappde wrote: post #94
magicsmoke wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A country's demand is linked to its supply. After all, it has to pay for the goods it demands with something.

That's a very loose link in a world where fiat currency and reserve currency exist for printing money.

But not negligible. The USD wouldn't be where it is without the US economy.
Post reply on HN