‘Quarantine fatigue’: Researchers find more Americans venturing against orders
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Re: ‘Quarantine fatigue’: Researchers find more Americans venturing against orders
#2We really have trouble learning lessons as a species. 1919 is calling.
Re: ‘Quarantine fatigue’: Researchers find more Americans venturing against orders
#3Why is anyone surprised?
Quarantine is harmful, and only useful if we’re preventing something worse. That’s probably the case, broadly — but the policies in other countries raise questions about US policies.
This is compounded by the arbitrary nature of closures, eg public construction and landscaping can continue but private can’t. People resent politicians arbitrarily (and self-servingly) picking winners and losers in the economy.
It’s further compounded by the fact that leaders haven’t announced a clear vision for when this ends. People complied because they cared and wanted to prevent deaths — but now we’re in a situation where the workforce is devastated and being hurt by arbitrary requirements, with no clear plan.
Naturally, people aren’t just going to sit there hurting — and if leaders don’t articulate a clear direction towards fixing things, people will find their own.
Re: ‘Quarantine fatigue’: Researchers find more Americans venturing against orders
#4We really have trouble learning lessons as a species. 1919 is calling.
We achieved better results than _every_ pre-peak prediction. What do you measure?
Re: ‘Quarantine fatigue’: Researchers find more Americans venturing against orders
#5We really have trouble learning lessons as a species. 1919 is calling.
We achieved better results than _every_ pre-peak prediction. What do you measure?
I saw plenty of predictions this was just another flu and thus no big deal. Wuhan contained it early so total infections would be kept low etc.
If anything I am shocked how accurate many epidemiology predictions where.
Re: ‘Quarantine fatigue’: Researchers find more Americans venturing against orders
#6Earlier quoted context omitted.
We achieved better results than _every_ pre-peak prediction. What do you measure?
I saw plenty of predictions this was just another flu and thus no big deal. Wuhan contained it early so total infections would be kept low etc. If anything I am shocked how accurate many epidemiology predictions where.
Obviously, I'm talking about professional predictions. If for some reason you care about armchair predictions, it's going to be 10 to 1 in the "way worse" range for a random sample here.
Which accurate pre-peak predictions are you referring to?
Re: ‘Quarantine fatigue’: Researchers find more Americans venturing against orders
#7Earlier quoted context omitted.
I saw plenty of predictions this was just another flu and thus no big deal. Wuhan contained it early so total infections would be kept low etc. If anything I am shocked how accurate many epidemiology predictions where.
Obviously, I'm talking about professional predictions. If for some reason you care about armchair predictions, it's going to be 10 to 1 in the "way worse" range for a random sample here. Which accurate pre-peak predictions are you referring to?
I am talking about predictions from politicians not random people online. Professional predictions had huge error bars around various levels of response and tended to be surprisingly accurate IMO.
Hell the stock market still seems to think it’s no big deal.
Re: ‘Quarantine fatigue’: Researchers find more Americans venturing against orders
#8Earlier quoted context omitted.
Obviously, I'm talking about professional predictions. If for some reason you care about armchair predictions, it's going to be 10 to 1 in the "way worse" range for a random sample here. Which accurate pre-peak predictions are you referring to?
I am talking about predictions from politicians not random people online. Professional predictions had huge error bars around various levels of response and tended to be surprisingly accurate IMO. Hell the stock market still seems to think it’s no big deal.
Which professional pre-peak predictions were surprisingly accurate?
Re: ‘Quarantine fatigue’: Researchers find more Americans venturing against orders
#9Why is anyone surprised? Quarantine is harmful, and only useful if we’re preventing something worse. That’s probably the case, broadly — but the policies in other countries raise questions about US policies. This is compounded by the arbitrary nature of closures, eg public construction and landscaping can continue but private can’t. People resent politicians arbitrarily (and self-servingly) picking winners and losers…
It’s also unclear whether the lockdown is accomplishing anything. We have enormous economic damage, lots of boredom, no dramatic decrease of cases in most places, an unimpressive amount of progress toward herd immunity, and no meaningful increase in testing, prevention, treatment ability, or clever policies from any level of US leadership.
In other words, what have we accomplished by locking everything down? Delaying large numbers of deaths by a few months?
Extending the lockdowns until we maybe have a vaccine in 2021 does not seem like a great idea.
Re: ‘Quarantine fatigue’: Researchers find more Americans venturing against orders
#10Note that the data is from cubeiq - featured in a rogues’ gallery of firms in the long tail of firms monetizing personal information
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/12/10/business/loca...
We need this data now, but let’s also not forget this area needs regulation (that among other things will give teeth to violations of “but it’s all encrypted/anonymized!” claims)