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The Changing World Order

principles.com

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Re: The Changing World Order

#81

Post by smitty1e »

m3kw9 wrote: post #74

Unless the US losses a major war either economical or physical they are hard to upend because of globalization. Everything is very dependent on the US dollar and switching it will take a lot of persuading. Like losing a world war type persuading.

With covid-19, the U.S. Congress is really hammering the Cosmic Credit Card.

The deficit and the debt seem to be Really Big Numbers, existing in a scope outside of economic reality.

One has the impression that this is not an economic perpetual motion machine.

Maybe covid-19 could sink the USD and usher in a new economic phase.

But seems unlikely, and there further seems zero political will to do anything more sane fiscally.

Re: The Changing World Order

#82

Post by cscurmudgeon »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #70
seibelj wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s amazing that someone who has a deep nuanced view of American politics and critiques the minutia of American current events from the inside, then blindly believes vague propaganda from China (“China united and strong! Great and competent leader!”). Super common perspective from upper-middle class Americans who argue on HN and Reddit. If you don’t live in China, don’t speak Chinese, didn’t grow up in China, have n…

Yeah, this is a pretty common affliction among well-to-do Americans, and I just do not understand it. Remember when Sam Altman said it's easier to discuss controversial ideas in Beijing than San Francisco?

That is just plain scary. Reminds of this old Soviet joke.

Q: Is it true that there is freedom of speech in the USSR, just like in the USA?

A: Yes. In the USA, you can stand in front of the White House in Washington, DC, and yell, "Down with Ronald Reagan”, and you will not be punished. Equally, you can also stand in Red Square in Moscow and yell, "Down with Ronald Reagan",and you will not be punished.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_political_jokes

Re: The Changing World Order

#83

Post by nopinsight »

airstrike wrote: post #76
nopinsight wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is doing most things right according to endogenous growth theory. Exports help it grow faster but are not the most essential part of the equation. China's export is only ~20% of its 2018 GDP. https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/china/exports/ "Endogenous growth theory holds that investment in human capital, innovation, and knowledge are significant contributors to economic growth." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/En…

> US population: ~330 million; EU, ~450 million => Total: 780 million. China's population: ~1400 million. Domestic demand is clearly not China's disadvantage. Population size doesn't paint a full picture. China's GDP per capita is still less than a third of the US. A lot of those 1.4 billion have absolutely appalling living standards.

That is why I mentioned they still have a significant room for further development. (Many people's quality of life in major cities, from all reports I have seen, is no worse than that of the west's middle class, except for pollution.)

If a country is economically well-governed and still developing, the quality of life for most everyone will improve over time.

Most people who have studied or traveled to one of the Asian tigers before and after its rapid phase of development can see how different 2-3 decades can make.

A 5% annual compound growth results in 3.4 times the previous GDP within 25 years.

2020 projection of GDP per capita (PPP) of China is ~$21000 according to the IMF. It's a middle-income country. If they continue to adopt and invent technologies extensively, there is no reason they cannot grow further.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)...

Quality of life is not a zero-sum game. In fact, when a country is richer, their trading partners are often better off too.

Re: The Changing World Order

#84

Post by magicsmoke »

plainOldText wrote: post #19

I'm currently reading Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World by Peter Zeihan. [1] The book discusses the upcoming world order from a geopolitical perspective and gives original insight into potential developments. For example, I wasn't aware the US Navy has been securing the maritime shipping lanes, thus boosting global trade; and if that stops, well, you can imagine the implications. [1] ht…

The USN is way overkill for dealing with pirates. It's sized to deal with other national navies. The USN promises not to blockade foreign nations (most of the time) and fights those that would not purely out of altruism, but because if they can convince would be competitors that they don't need to build a navy then the USN doesn't need to get into expensive naval arms races.

Re: The Changing World Order

#85

Post by AnimalMuppet »

cheez wrote: post #31
tootie wrote: post #9

Lost me in the first paragraph. Examining a history of money supply and debt that predates Bretton-Woods is simply not relevant. Everything I read could have been lifted from a comment thread in /r/Libertarian 10 years ago. The last financial crisis was the ultimate test for fiat currency. One that was pointed at as the moment that debt-driven currency would crash and burn by a lot of gold bugs. Instead, a deluge of…

debasement happens all the time https://money.visualcapitalist.com/currency-and-the-collapse...

OK, but what's your point? The US dollar doesn't seem to be debasing too badly since 2008, despite all the new money created.

Re: The Changing World Order

#86

Post by magicsmoke »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #14
airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

I think at the end of the day if a country's strongest asset is its "demand", that is, its ability to consume goods and services instead of produce them, then i think that country is in for a world of hurt.

A country's demand is linked to its supply. After all, it has to pay for the goods it demands with something.

Re: The Changing World Order

#88

Post by magicsmoke »

airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

Nuclear weapons don't actually have that much of an impact. They don't do anything socially or economically. They don't prevent all conventional warfare either. If one country annexes territory from another and the target responds with a threat to nuke the aggressor, the aggressor can just call their bluff. Mutual destruction over a flesh wound isn't credible. The only things nukes do is ensure that actors can't be forced off the stage with military conquest. Barring that, the rest of the military-economic-social game plays on as it did before the nuclear age.

Re: The Changing World Order

#89

Post by viburnum »

tryptophan wrote: post #37
viburnum wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know successful hedge funds profit more from insider trading than from any kind of analytical wizardry, right?

Lol. Dalio is too big to bother with insider trading. With $160bill under management, that leaves like what, ~50 companies he can't just buy outright in the entire world? Please stop watching Billions and thinking it represents anything close to reality.

As if hedge funds only trade stocks. As if LIBOR was the only thing ever fixed.

Re: The Changing World Order

#90

Post by sameerds »

prostheticvamp wrote: post #54

I couldn’t tolerate this writing long enough to get through more than half the article. There’s the “history is cyclical” trope, the “I have learned how to read history” repeated self-aggrandizement without any specifics, despite going on long enough to repeat himself, and really obvious statements meant to read like profundity (“when there’s great inequality of wealth, there will be social tensions”, paraphrasing on…

On the flip side, the writing has an increasingly rare property that the whole article (essay?) is divided into sections with proper titles. More often than not, I lose patience and give up on most articles these days, simply because there are no visual markers when scrolling through. I have no way to know where to stop and scan a few lines as I scroll through ... it's all just a continuous torrent of words and sentences.
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