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The Changing World Order

principles.com

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Re: The Changing World Order

#61

Post by saltedonion »

cheez wrote: post #3
airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

Dalio is kissing up to CCP

If you read or watch enough of dalios interviews, you will realize he almost never says anything negative about China.

Re: The Changing World Order

#62

Post by gimmeThaBeet »

tanilama wrote: post #7
airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

All you said might be true 5 years ago. But many no longer holds. China is no longer an export dependent economy, and moving manufacturing away from it, is hard. The belief that manufacturing is about labor is simply false. Dalio is pretty smart to smell the trend, maybe just because he is less idealogical driven but data-driven.

Yeah, I think one of the biggest misconceptions people have about china's economy today is that they aren't nearly as dependent on exports as people think. On an absolute number net exports look big, but as % of GDP, countries like Germany or SK nearly log like more dependent.

The much more critical thing for China is domestic consumption, which is where they focus the most and struggle the most. And a big thing there that has made other developed countries mad is that China's net imports haven't nearly kept up with their consumption growth. China has been meeting consumption domestically, which changes their mix, and makes everyone else understandably frustrated.

Re: The Changing World Order

#63

Post by justinzollars »

prostheticvamp wrote: post #54

I couldn’t tolerate this writing long enough to get through more than half the article. There’s the “history is cyclical” trope, the “I have learned how to read history” repeated self-aggrandizement without any specifics, despite going on long enough to repeat himself, and really obvious statements meant to read like profundity (“when there’s great inequality of wealth, there will be social tensions”, paraphrasing on…

Not everyone is a great messenger. I recommend Graham Allison Destined for War. Similar message but delivered differently.

Re: The Changing World Order

#64

Post by DennisP »

seibelj wrote: post #25
DennisP wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just that Dalio is a "successful trader." He runs the world's largest hedge fund and their expertise is in predicting global macroeconomic trends. His experience is directly relevant.

I’m just not impressed by what he writes about in regards to “universal principles of world history”. His credentials don’t make me assume everything he writes is true and what he writes is long winded and obvious.

It's a short, introductory LinkedIn article. If you want more depth, start with his recent book on debt cycles. I'm guessing his next book will have more as well.

Re: The Changing World Order

#65

Post by plainOldText »

dang wrote: post #59
sremani wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zeihan and George Friedman are really good. After getting perspective from reading them, prepared to be annoyed by geopolitical commentary on HN.

Generic dissing of other commenters just adds noise to HN. If you know more than others, why not share some of what you know so we all can learn? (Edit: I originally wrote "one of the worst ways to add noise". That was overkill; it gets worse.)

I beg to differ. The comment was perfectly reasonable in my view. I also learned about someone new, namely George Friedman.

Re: The Changing World Order

#66

Post by justinzollars »

airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

> Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied.

When I visited China, I felt like I was in the future. We have fallen behind, and we literarily have shipped the "Arsenal of Democracy" to China. Their airports are bigger and better, the high speed rail was amazing, and the subway system was simple to navigate.

China has innovated in important ways - they have beat us to 5G, and they have weapons systems that could take out our best aircraft carriers and satellites.

Re: The Changing World Order

#67

Post by astrofinch »

dehrmann wrote: post #16

Worth mentioning Pure Alpha was down 20% in Q1. Someone else observed Ray Dalio has been too busy building his brand as a financial sage (cough cough) and either not keeping his eyes on the road or he just got lucky in 2008. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/bridgewat...

Dalio admits in this that he didn't see the pandemic coming.

Re: The Changing World Order

#68

Post by eointierney »

The world order, in terms of socio-economic and politico-legal structures, is for sure changing, but it's more a matter of demographics and communication.

We have shattered certain assumptions about the world economy to ensure the continuing welfare of the oldest of us. This is an unprecedented act of selflessness by everyone younger than seventy-ish, because we love our elders so.

The real change in the world order is logistical, which has caused significant re-pricings of almost everything (even the things that are roughly the same price are so in a very different set of market conditions).

It is no longer a matter of how nations compete but how they collaborate, and the markets are adjusting accordingly.

I'm quite optimistic, but then I study Science.

[Edit (apart from mis-spellings)]:

The shattered assumptions pertain to debt management by governments, which are trivial compared to the volume of daily trading. We are in for a reckoning on resource measurement hopefully not of catastrophic proportions and this pandemic is merely a spur. In a nutshell: money fails dimensional analysis.

[Edit the second]:

By the way, if any of you would like to get together and discuss type theory and dimensional analysis and maybe reach out to the folk on the n-category cafe and lambdatheultimate and suchlike I'll happily help. We've a problem needs solving and Hacker News is populated by folk who like solving problems. I'll end (cheekily, give it a search engine result) with a reference to Terence Tao: A mathematical formalisation of dimensional analysis. I keep coming back to this blogpost. The subject kinda weirds me out.

[Edit the third]:

Removed the first paragraph as snarky, mea culpa

Re: The Changing World Order

#69

Post by dotnetcore »

plainOldText wrote: post #19

I'm currently reading Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World by Peter Zeihan. [1] The book discusses the upcoming world order from a geopolitical perspective and gives original insight into potential developments. For example, I wasn't aware the US Navy has been securing the maritime shipping lanes, thus boosting global trade; and if that stops, well, you can imagine the implications. [1] ht…

if you look at cargo ship over time. we are building bigger and bigger cargo ship while everyone's blue water navy have been diminishing. it will be interesting if U.S. exit the global stage and stop patrolling the ocean.

are we going back to colonialism era where everyone build up a navy to escort goods or we are at the point that we can trade goods peacefully without a strong Navy escort.

Re: The Changing World Order

#70

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

seibelj wrote: post #30
cscurmudgeon wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The U.S. has allowed the wealth gap to grow to levels that are pretty scary. China has scary levels of wealth gap too. I think it is probably has more. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2019/04/06/income-inequali... > The U.S. has continued to elect inept and crony politicians who wish to look backward instead of bring the nation forward China is perceived to much more corrupt than the US. It is not even a competit…

It’s amazing that someone who has a deep nuanced view of American politics and critiques the minutia of American current events from the inside, then blindly believes vague propaganda from China (“China united and strong! Great and competent leader!”). Super common perspective from upper-middle class Americans who argue on HN and Reddit. If you don’t live in China, don’t speak Chinese, didn’t grow up in China, have n…

Yeah, this is a pretty common affliction among well-to-do Americans, and I just do not understand it. Remember when Sam Altman said it's easier to discuss controversial ideas in Beijing than San Francisco?
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