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The Changing World Order

principles.com

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Re: The Changing World Order

#31

Post by cheez »

tootie wrote: post #9

Lost me in the first paragraph. Examining a history of money supply and debt that predates Bretton-Woods is simply not relevant. Everything I read could have been lifted from a comment thread in /r/Libertarian 10 years ago. The last financial crisis was the ultimate test for fiat currency. One that was pointed at as the moment that debt-driven currency would crash and burn by a lot of gold bugs. Instead, a deluge of…

debasement happens all the time https://money.visualcapitalist.com/currency-and-the-collapse...

Re: The Changing World Order

#32

Post by basch »

airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

>still by and large imported / copied.

The import of intellectual property could take decades or lifetimes to truly play out. If a country could take everything we know, without the debt, it would be a stellar starting point, but wouldnt instantly make them us.

Re: The Changing World Order

#33

Post by Vinceo »

viburnum wrote: post #24
DennisP wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just that Dalio is a "successful trader." He runs the world's largest hedge fund and their expertise is in predicting global macroeconomic trends. His experience is directly relevant.

You know successful hedge funds profit more from insider trading than from any kind of analytical wizardry, right?

Could you provide a source on this?

Re: The Changing World Order

#34

Post by hilbertseries »

cheez wrote: post #10
api wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wasn't quite a lot of what you say about China true about the USA in the 19th century? Not saying the cases are the same and I am skeptical of grand historical theses, but I don't think you can glibly dismiss China either. Personally I see China replacing a superpower, but the superpower being replaced is Russia. Russia is by nearly every metric declining and much faster than the USA. The question is whether the USA…

Russia's debt is minuscule in comparison to the other two.

Yeah, but so is Russia’s GDP. For reference, Canada has a higher GDP.

Re: The Changing World Order

#35

Post by ericmay »

cheez wrote: post #10
api wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wasn't quite a lot of what you say about China true about the USA in the 19th century? Not saying the cases are the same and I am skeptical of grand historical theses, but I don't think you can glibly dismiss China either. Personally I see China replacing a superpower, but the superpower being replaced is Russia. Russia is by nearly every metric declining and much faster than the USA. The question is whether the USA…

Russia's debt is minuscule in comparison to the other two.

But that doesn’t really matter. It’s like if you have a net worth of $50 and an income of $100, but your buddies have an income of $100,000 and a debt of $70,000

Re: The Changing World Order

#36

Post by sixQuarks »

seibelj wrote: post #15

Everything Ray Dalio writes he presents like the prophet come down from high to give us the Sacred Truths. Dalio is a successful trader and is beyond wealthy. He’s a smart guy who has a true interest in history. But he is just one opinion of many and he is absolutely not saying things that are uniquely known to him. I read the whole thing and it’s like, “Powerful countries decline! Declining power leads to social str…

I agree. Find me ONE, just ONE commentator, sage, whatever you want to call them - find me one whose grand predictions actually came true.

Sure, there are instances of people being right, but I'm talking about "sage" characters that are going around doing interviews and such.

Re: The Changing World Order

#37

Post by tryptophan »

viburnum wrote: post #24
DennisP wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just that Dalio is a "successful trader." He runs the world's largest hedge fund and their expertise is in predicting global macroeconomic trends. His experience is directly relevant.

You know successful hedge funds profit more from insider trading than from any kind of analytical wizardry, right?

Lol. Dalio is too big to bother with insider trading. With $160bill under management, that leaves like what, ~50 companies he can't just buy outright in the entire world?

Please stop watching Billions and thinking it represents anything close to reality.

Re: The Changing World Order

#38

Post by sremani »

plainOldText wrote: post #19

I'm currently reading Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World by Peter Zeihan. [1] The book discusses the upcoming world order from a geopolitical perspective and gives original insight into potential developments. For example, I wasn't aware the US Navy has been securing the maritime shipping lanes, thus boosting global trade; and if that stops, well, you can imagine the implications. [1] ht…

Zeihan and George Friedman are really good. After getting perspective from reading them, prepared to be annoyed by geopolitical commentary on HN.

Re: The Changing World Order

#39

Post by BubRoss »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #14
airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

I think at the end of the day if a country's strongest asset is its "demand", that is, its ability to consume goods and services instead of produce them, then i think that country is in for a world of hurt.

Not only has no one said that, it doesn't even make sense in the first place.

Re: The Changing World Order

#40

Post by darkerside »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #14
airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

I think at the end of the day if a country's strongest asset is its "demand", that is, its ability to consume goods and services instead of produce them, then i think that country is in for a world of hurt.

US is the "buyer" who has the money. China is the biggest supplier of goods. A statement like the above is overly simplistic. The US will exert power and influence in a buyer's market, and will lose influence in a seller's market. Which market we're in is an be interesting discussion, and it predicates any prediction of the future.
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