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The Changing World Order

principles.com

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Re: The Changing World Order

#11

Post by marktolson »

airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

Look at China's GDP over the last 2 decades. It has grown exponentially. At this rate they'll surpass the US this decade or next. You cant just move manufacturing elsewhere. China have perfected low cost mass manufacturing. It's not just beacuse labour is cheaper. That used to be the case but now they are innovating at a huge scale.

Re: The Changing World Order

#12

Post by ipnon »

airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

Note, Japan's ascension to the largest economy in the world was also "guaranteed" near the end of the Cold War. We can all see plainly how such claims have played out.

You have to admit that the possibility of a global hegemony is more likely today than ever in modern history. An unlikely event, however, is still unlikely, no matter the rate at which it increases in likelihood. Our prerogative now is to carefully monitor this increasing rate, lest it somehow escape our attention while becoming unavoidable.

Re: The Changing World Order

#13

Post by LB232323 »

cheez wrote: post #3
airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

Dalio is kissing up to CCP

Without a doubt. He has no rights to forfeit as a billionaire. So eager to jump ship, at least they are making their "principles" clear.

Re: The Changing World Order

#14

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

I think at the end of the day if a country's strongest asset is its "demand", that is, its ability to consume goods and services instead of produce them, then i think that country is in for a world of hurt.

Re: The Changing World Order

#15

Post by seibelj »

Everything Ray Dalio writes he presents like the prophet come down from high to give us the Sacred Truths.

Dalio is a successful trader and is beyond wealthy. He’s a smart guy who has a true interest in history. But he is just one opinion of many and he is absolutely not saying things that are uniquely known to him.

I read the whole thing and it’s like, “Powerful countries decline! Declining power leads to social strife!” No shit dude.

Re: The Changing World Order

#16

Post by dehrmann »

Worth mentioning Pure Alpha was down 20% in Q1. Someone else observed Ray Dalio has been too busy building his brand as a financial sage (cough cough) and either not keeping his eyes on the road or he just got lucky in 2008.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/bridgewat...

Re: The Changing World Order

#17

Post by clairity »

marktolson wrote: post #11
airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

Look at China's GDP over the last 2 decades. It has grown exponentially. At this rate they'll surpass the US this decade or next. You cant just move manufacturing elsewhere. China have perfected low cost mass manufacturing. It's not just beacuse labour is cheaper. That used to be the case but now they are innovating at a huge scale.

economics lectures i attended a decade ago indicated that china has already surpassed the US in gdp, but to give us face and to not decelerate their growth, china manipulates their numbers and monetary policy to keep up appearances that the US is still larger.

china has 4x our population and growing like a weed. it’s naive to think they haven’t/won’t/can’t eclipse the US economy. it’s another reason we should overhaul immigration policy to attract the world’s best minds while we still have the prestige to do so.

Re: The Changing World Order

#18

Post by dehrmann »

airstrike wrote: post #2

> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…

> copied

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Km5XQxRrQvw&start=46&end=62

Re: The Changing World Order

#19

Post by plainOldText »

I'm currently reading Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World by Peter Zeihan. [1]

The book discusses the upcoming world order from a geopolitical perspective and gives original insight into potential developments. For example, I wasn't aware the US Navy has been securing the maritime shipping lanes, thus boosting global trade; and if that stops, well, you can imagine the implications.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Disunited-Nations-Scramble-Power-Ungo...

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