331–340 of 649 posts
https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/46-more-cases...
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I totally agree that the confirmed case counts are way too low, because even most people who were symptomatic weren't able to get tested (e.g. me), let alone random people who were asymptomatic. But the 21% study is seriously flawed because it didn't do a random sampling of the population. We need that at a minimum to know with any certainty what the actual exposure rate is. The figures that are coming back from stud…
It did a random sampling. We should do followups to screen off possible biases people have proposed, but stopping random people in the grocery store is by any reasonable standard randomization.
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If you're confused by this, you may need to check your news sources. Experts have been explaining all of this for months. First, people need to stay locked in and keep distance in order to slow down the spreading so health care systems don't get overwhelmed. Second, the disease itself can only be stopped once herd immunity is reached. Ideally, herd immunity is achieved by vaccination, once there is one. Until then, s…
Not sure why you're being downvoted, this is well established. Even with everyone indoors, the US new infection rate remains around 40,000 new cases per day recorded -- and holding steady. Now with states re-opening that can only go one direction, until herd immunity is established.
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Wouldn’t prisons disproportionately have poorer health than average for several reasons?
Is there data on that? Or is it an assumption?
i'm so tired of literally every other HN comment being like this. there is truly nothing more low effort / "i am very smart" than the HN-classic "do you have a source for that? where's the peer-reviewed study?". it adds absolutely nothing to the discussion, and yet i see all sorts of materially less obnoxious things be downvoted to oblivion.
[1] "citation needed"
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Not sure why you're being downvoted, this is well established. Even with everyone indoors, the US new infection rate remains around 40,000 new cases per day recorded -- and holding steady. Now with states re-opening that can only go one direction, until herd immunity is established.
Those are positive tests. They are remaining high because the number of tests has been increasing. The important metric to track is percent positive tests, which has been consistently dropping for weeks. https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en/test
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Also there have been reports of Ground Glass Opacities[1] in the lungs of people with infections previously thought of as asymptomatic. [1]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-glass_opacity
Sure, but that doesn't mean they... won't go away. In fact, I'm pretty confident all signs point to the fact they will go away. In fact you get ground glass opacities with H1N1 inflenza [1]. I guess the question is "functional asymptomaticity" vs "actual asymptomaticity". Like, if it's not bad enough for people to even notice does it really matter? [1] https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/full/10.1148/radiol.10092240
If coronavirus goes around again, that could raise the death rate
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If you're confused by this, you may need to check your news sources. Experts have been explaining all of this for months. First, people need to stay locked in and keep distance in order to slow down the spreading so health care systems don't get overwhelmed. Second, the disease itself can only be stopped once herd immunity is reached. Ideally, herd immunity is achieved by vaccination, once there is one. Until then, s…
Not sure why you're being downvoted, this is well established. Even with everyone indoors, the US new infection rate remains around 40,000 new cases per day recorded -- and holding steady. Now with states re-opening that can only go one direction, until herd immunity is established.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-d...
If instead we had done random sampling we could have been very accurately projecting the number of active cases pretty easily, but apparently we’ve mostly decided not to do that until now with the antibody studies.
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Sure, but that doesn't mean they... won't go away. In fact, I'm pretty confident all signs point to the fact they will go away. In fact you get ground glass opacities with H1N1 inflenza [1]. I guess the question is "functional asymptomaticity" vs "actual asymptomaticity". Like, if it's not bad enough for people to even notice does it really matter? [1] https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/full/10.1148/radiol.10092240
Do those count as a comorbidity though? If coronavirus goes around again, that could raise the death rate
It would be pretty novel for the human immune system to clear out the disease on it's own, then a few days later forget how to do that, and become re-infected. SARS-COV-1 saw immunity conferred for 2-3 years. [1] I suspect something similar is likely here, probably for a shorter duration due to the more limited severity, but long enough to get us to a vaccine.
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> But no clear way to confine it to the harmless crowd. That won't be what the public policy decisions will be based around if the asymptomatic and already exposed rate is so high. We don't know enough to make that decision yet, but testing more broadly was the first step. Remaining steps: - Do they get sick in two weeks? - Skip testing for current sickness, and test for antibodies instead. - Get a better antibody te…
Not sure I follow. I confess I'm biased in thinking we could have locked down nursing homes and shaved a large chunk of deaths. Catch is, we should have done that in January.
Its the plan for making a plan.
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It did a random sampling. We should do followups to screen off possible biases people have proposed, but stopping random people in the grocery store is by any reasonable standard randomization.
No. It’s a random sampling of people who are out during lockdown. It can’t being extrapolated to the whole population when large parts are not leaving their homes.