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In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

reuters.com

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Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#301

Post by edmundsauto »

Zach_the_Lizard wrote: post #256
edmundsauto wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On 1), what do you consider "not that serious"? IE, what are your metrics of choice, and what are the acceptable values? Regarding the cost-benefit discussion, my perspective is that people only want to discuss the downsides from a reduced economy. Second order effects include reduced vehicle deaths, reduced deaths from pollution, etc. IE, my discussions has felt agenda driven because it considers first order effects…

>On 1), what do you consider "not that serious"? Death rates, hospitalization rates, etc. As mentioned before, 20% of NY deaths are nursing home patients. 37% are 80 or older. I'm on mobile and a bit lazy, but check out death rates for the flu in younger populations and compare them to this virus. The virus has a higher mortality rate but not enough to be worth worrying about in younger populations. >Regarding the co…

So 13k deaths in NY (so far) are under 80 years old. That sounds pretty dangerous to me.

Comparison to the flu could indicate that we underindex on all these other causes of death. It doesn't make those death numbers some magical line where now it's worth it, because Coronavirus deaths in 2 months equal annual flu deaths.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#302

Post by arcticbull »

13415 wrote: post #218
SN76477 wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am confused as can be about all of it now. First it was stay locked in, then heard immunity, now they say heard immunity may not happen.

If you're confused by this, you may need to check your news sources. Experts have been explaining all of this for months. First, people need to stay locked in and keep distance in order to slow down the spreading so health care systems don't get overwhelmed. Second, the disease itself can only be stopped once herd immunity is reached. Ideally, herd immunity is achieved by vaccination, once there is one. Until then, s…

Not sure why you're being downvoted, this is well established. Even with everyone indoors, the US new infection rate remains around 40,000 new cases per day recorded -- and holding steady. Now with states re-opening that can only go one direction, until herd immunity is established.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#303

Post by emiliovesprini »

ilamont wrote: post #109

96% are without symptoms yet . There was a nursing home in Massachusetts which had 51 out of 98 residents testing positive but asymptomatic in early April. While this sounded encouraging in the sense no one was critically ill because of coronavirus, a few weeks later 19 had died and about 30 more had tested positive. Let’s wait a month until there is a clearer picture about the impact of the virus on a particular pop…

Also there have been reports of Ground Glass Opacities[1] in the lungs of people with infections previously thought of as asymptomatic.

[1]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-glass_opacity

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#304

Post by arcticbull »

emiliovesprini wrote: post #303
ilamont wrote: post #109

96% are without symptoms yet . There was a nursing home in Massachusetts which had 51 out of 98 residents testing positive but asymptomatic in early April. While this sounded encouraging in the sense no one was critically ill because of coronavirus, a few weeks later 19 had died and about 30 more had tested positive. Let’s wait a month until there is a clearer picture about the impact of the virus on a particular pop…

Also there have been reports of Ground Glass Opacities[1] in the lungs of people with infections previously thought of as asymptomatic. [1]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-glass_opacity

Sure, but that doesn't mean they... won't go away. In fact, I'm pretty confident all signs point to the fact they will go away. In fact you get ground glass opacities with H1N1 inflenza [1]. I guess the question is "functional asymptomaticity" vs "actual asymptomaticity". Like, if it's not bad enough for people to even notice does it really matter?

[1] https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/full/10.1148/radiol.10092240

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#305

Post by ShorsHammer »

crazygringo wrote: post #149

Every article I see about people testing asymptomatic is followed by comments insisting they were asymptomatic when tested , with no idea of whether they stayed asymptomatic or whether virtually all of them had symptoms a few days later, thus basically invalid. But this doesn't seem like a hard problem to solve, folks . Is nobody bothering to follow up with the asymptomatic people a week later? Just take their mobile…

It is being done though, virtually everywhere. Huge amount of testing worldwide is confirming case recovery.

You are conflating armchair epidemiologists on HN with the reality on the ground. What people say here doesn't reflect what is being done.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#306

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

shakna wrote: post #280
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the "for starters" that concerns me. A lot of us were always saying that official case counts are much too low, and antibody surveys were supposed to be the definitive proof that we were responsibly waiting for. Now they're starting to come out, and still nobody believes it. I worry it's a moving goalpost, and no evidence will ever be enough to make people start reconsidering their beliefs.

> antibody surveys were supposed to be the definitive proof that we were responsibly waiting for. Simple question: Why? For most coronaviruses, antibodies reflect only a temporary immunity, that is usual gone in 6-24 months, due to the nature of these viruses. All an antibody survey shows is that antibodies can be created, not that they are effective long term. Showing a longer term immunity takes statistical analysi…

I'm not sure I follow what you're responding to. Antibodies are definitive proof of a previous infection, which is what I was talking about.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#307

Post by pbhjpbhj »

nradov wrote: post #243
edmundsauto wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, how should we weight the validity of the data, given the political leadership issues surrounding this situation.

The data is valid, at least to the extent that the tests are accurate (there will be some false results). The Navy has openly published their numbers. If they didn't want us to know they would simply classify everything as a matter of operational readiness instead of lying. https://navylive.dodlive.mil/2020/03/15/u-s-navy-covid-19-up...

>they would simply classify everything as a matter of operational readiness instead of lying //

Do you think, it seems that not releasing data would be a clear sign they're hiding something - given the public nature of the situation - releasing distorted figures is very difficult to find as you'd need to take a census of sailors ... which the navy/politicians would simply not allow. And the people involved themselves mightn't even notice if the figures were just massaged.

Appreciate your citation and input.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#308

Post by auntienomen »

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #288
venning wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Typhoid Mary" was an asymptomatic carrier of typhoid fever for at least 38 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Mallon

FWIW I think that article shows her infecting people for only 15 years (1900-1915), then being quarantined for a further 23.

A post-mortem confirmed that her gallbladder was loaded with the bacteria that cause typhoid.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#309

Post by newacct583 »

rubber_duck wrote: post #268
newacct583 wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> An IFR of even 1% is pretty bad To be clear: it would be the most dangerous general epidemic disease since the advent of vaccination, and by a significant amount. You need to go back to measles and polio to find general population outbreaks that were more lethal.

A very important thing is that % is concentrated among old and people with preexisting health conditions. Not every death is the same - a 80 year old with weak immune system could have lived 5 years longer without corona, but a healthy 20 year-old dying from cytokine storm caused by influenza has lost potentially 60 years of healthy life - the loss is much worse.

> Not every death is the same

OK, so how many "influenza death equivalents" are we looking at? What's your metric for how bad this is? I mean, I think that's a little ghoulish, obviously, but if people really want to make this argument I'd really like to see the kinds of well-founded numbers that the experts are producing. Medical ethics is hardly a new field, after all. You'd think someone would have pulled some analysis off the shelf.

Instead, the people pushing "these people would have died anyway" seem to be almost exclusively political actors (or their proxies on social media sites like this one) with a goal of either defending the inaction of the current administration or pushing a policy goal that necessarily sets the virus loose on the public.

But if you really want to make a numerate case for not trying to save the old and sick, I'd genuinely and carefully read it.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#310

Post by Bnshsysjab »

arcticbull wrote: post #273
ilamont wrote: post #109

96% are without symptoms yet . There was a nursing home in Massachusetts which had 51 out of 98 residents testing positive but asymptomatic in early April. While this sounded encouraging in the sense no one was critically ill because of coronavirus, a few weeks later 19 had died and about 30 more had tested positive. Let’s wait a month until there is a clearer picture about the impact of the virus on a particular pop…

The virus affects young and healthy folks without co-morbidities dramatically less than it does old folks at a nursing home. Based on New York City data, people without co-morbidities account for something like 6% of hospitalizations [1]. Old folks on a cruise ship full of old people, about 20% showed no symptoms. Is it a big stretch to think that scales to prisoners as shown? They're pretty young (only 2.8% of priso…

Wouldn’t prisons disproportionately have poorer health than average for several reasons?
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