In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

Post by jacobush » Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 11:01 PM UTC

jariel wrote: post #182

crazygringo wrote: post #149

Every article I see about people testing asymptomatic is followed by comments insisting they were asymptomatic when tested , with no idea of whether they stayed asymptomatic or whether virtually all of them had symptoms a few days later, thus basically invalid. But this doesn't seem like a hard problem to solve, folks . Is nobody bothering to follow up with the asymptomatic people a week later? Just take their mobile…

It's truly disorienting. We need good data, badly, and we have an entire world as our Petree dish and yet can't seem to get it. You'd think the CDC would be sending out questionnaires, forms, coordinating such tests, giving guidelines, collating results etc.. Literally the worst economic shock maybe ever and we can't count marbles to save ourselves.

Post by thedrbrian » Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 11:01 PM UTC

vosper wrote: post #214

crazygringo wrote: post #149

Every article I see about people testing asymptomatic is followed by comments insisting they were asymptomatic when tested , with no idea of whether they stayed asymptomatic or whether virtually all of them had symptoms a few days later, thus basically invalid. But this doesn't seem like a hard problem to solve, folks . Is nobody bothering to follow up with the asymptomatic people a week later? Just take their mobile…

> Just take their mobile phone number, and text them en masse with a quick Y/N question as to whether or not they got sick? I've been wondering why this isn't just being done for everyone in the country, every few days? "The main symptoms of COVID-19 are X, Y, Z. If you think you may have COVID-19 please respond "Yes" to this text message. This is free. Your response is private and used to understand the spread of CO…

Post by pbhjpbhj » Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 11:02 PM UTC

graeme wrote: post #175

lukevdp wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, one study when the diamond princess was tested it was originally 50% asymptomatic and then later on that had gone down to under 20%

A lot of the asymptomatic cases had pneumonia in their lungs too. They were however still able to expel CO2 and so did’t feel shortness of breath.

Post by pbhjpbhj » Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 11:03 PM UTC

jariel wrote: post #182

crazygringo wrote: post #149

Every article I see about people testing asymptomatic is followed by comments insisting they were asymptomatic when tested , with no idea of whether they stayed asymptomatic or whether virtually all of them had symptoms a few days later, thus basically invalid. But this doesn't seem like a hard problem to solve, folks . Is nobody bothering to follow up with the asymptomatic people a week later? Just take their mobile…

It's truly disorienting. We need good data, badly, and we have an entire world as our Petree dish and yet can't seem to get it. You'd think the CDC would be sending out questionnaires, forms, coordinating such tests, giving guidelines, collating results etc.. Literally the worst economic shock maybe ever and we can't count marbles to save ourselves.

Post by MrPatan » Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 11:03 PM UTC

samatman wrote: post #119

MrPatan wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right, they get a positive result for almost all the population! Wait, does that pass the smell test? Do prisions become huge flu hotspots as well? The Diamond Princess outbreak didn't have that kind of numbers... What's more likely at this point, the numbers from the article or human error? My respects to anybody trying to do actual science with this kind of data in this kind of situation...

Right, it could literally be as dumb as: all the tests were processed by one person, and that person is infected with covid-19. Drawing signal out of the noise right now is very, very difficult.