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In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
231–240 of 649 posts
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#232One potential cause: We habe hints now (Charité Study) that previous infections with other, less harmful corona viruses may provide some degree of immunity (unconfirmed).
Maybe one or more these other coronaviruses made rounds in this prison earlier this year?
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#233The nature of exponential growth is such that no matter when you test, 50% will have gotten it within the last doubling period. If it’s doubling every three days, half have caught it in the last 3 days, 75% in the last 6 days, 86% in the last 9 and so on. Given the long incubation period it makes sense that the vast majority are currently asymptomatic. I think that will be the case at every point during exponential growth, even if the ultimates fatality rate is quite high.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#234Earlier quoted context omitted.
Did you see the NYC antibody sample that showed that approximately 21 percent of citizens had antibodies? It seems like a nursing home is a pretty bad representation of a population.
8,399,000 people in NYC, 21 percent of that is 1,763,790. 1% of that is 17,000. So far as of Saturday at 6:49pm EST 16,919 have officially died in NYC. I think the anti-body test in this case is fairly close and the death rate is probably 1% more or less depending on the demographic distribution. Obviously there are a number of people in NYC who will die over the next month even if all new infections where halted rig…
You're using the death count for the entire state, not just NYC. The blood antibody test positive % for the overall state is 13, not 21. And the population is around 19.5 million.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#23596% are without symptoms yet . There was a nursing home in Massachusetts which had 51 out of 98 residents testing positive but asymptomatic in early April. While this sounded encouraging in the sense no one was critically ill because of coronavirus, a few weeks later 19 had died and about 30 more had tested positive. Let’s wait a month until there is a clearer picture about the impact of the virus on a particular pop…
Did you see the NYC antibody sample that showed that approximately 21 percent of citizens had antibodies? It seems like a nursing home is a pretty bad representation of a population.
I am not sure that these antibody tests mean what people generally think they mean. For example, there seem to be multiple events where people get sick even after it has been established that they have antibodies.
Furthermore, people in environments with a lot of virus (i.e., cruise ships, hospitals, or just northern italian towns where the virus has run amok, tend to get sick and die at much higher rate than those antibody tests would suggest.
There may be a mechanism for multiple infection which makes multiple exposure more dangerous even if you have antibodies.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#236Earlier quoted context omitted.
> A lot of this is like Russian Roulette -- there's a huge amount about this virus which we don't know, and it could be super-bad or not-that-bad. I think at this point we know enough to say: 1) For most of the population, the virus is not that serious 2) For a subset of the population the virus is seriously deadly. For example, ~20% of NY state coronavirus deaths were from nursing homes, ~37% are 80 or older. By con…
On 1), what do you consider "not that serious"? IE, what are your metrics of choice, and what are the acceptable values? Regarding the cost-benefit discussion, my perspective is that people only want to discuss the downsides from a reduced economy. Second order effects include reduced vehicle deaths, reduced deaths from pollution, etc. IE, my discussions has felt agenda driven because it considers first order effects…
We are quite a lot of people that fear the operation will be successful but the patient is dead with the Corona actions being taken. Case in point, 26.5 million americans have sought unemployment benefits (https://vastuullisuusuutiset.fi/en/weben/women-bear-brunt-of...).
The deaths in New York are quite telling for who is at risk, see https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109867/coronavirus-deat....
Over 90% of the dead so far are old with comorbidites such as Hypertension and Diabetes, see https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/most-nyc-....
So i agree that "not serious" is an accurate statement.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#237Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don’t buy any inference drawn from that study that is in the realm of “20% of the population of NYC was exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and developed immunity” I think that will be the primary message that people will get from that study.
Is there any evidence that would convince you 20% of NYC was exposed and developed immunity?
How about an actually randomly sampled test, for starters?
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#23896% are without symptoms yet . There was a nursing home in Massachusetts which had 51 out of 98 residents testing positive but asymptomatic in early April. While this sounded encouraging in the sense no one was critically ill because of coronavirus, a few weeks later 19 had died and about 30 more had tested positive. Let’s wait a month until there is a clearer picture about the impact of the virus on a particular pop…
...Let's also ask if the tests have a high false positive rate?
Dr. David Katz was just in Bill Maher’s show indicating the test has a high false negative rate
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#239I've read that asymptomatic carriers are though to be less infectious than those with symptoms because of the lower concentration of virus in the saliva. Also, many virologists mentioned in recent texts that the initial concentration of the virus you receive can affect how sick you'll get - the more viruses you're exposed to, the faster they can invade the body and the more severe it will get. Can those two facts be…
I have been wondering about the effect of the degree of initial infection. I kind of assume the virus grows exponentially inside the body and would dwarf the initial constant. If a low initial dose affects the severity of the disease, I think that would be incredibly useful to know. I also wish there was info on percentage of infection via fomites vs inhalation.
Most infectious diseases are dose dependent in their effects actually, which can be a bit counterintuitive. I dont know of any data for covid yet, but heres a paper on influenza, another viral disease:
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#240Every article I see about people testing asymptomatic is followed by comments insisting they were asymptomatic when tested , with no idea of whether they stayed asymptomatic or whether virtually all of them had symptoms a few days later, thus basically invalid. But this doesn't seem like a hard problem to solve, folks . Is nobody bothering to follow up with the asymptomatic people a week later? Just take their mobile…
> Just take their mobile phone number, and text them en masse with a quick Y/N question as to whether or not they got sick? I've been wondering why this isn't just being done for everyone in the country, every few days? "The main symptoms of COVID-19 are X, Y, Z. If you think you may have COVID-19 please respond "Yes" to this text message. This is free. Your response is private and used to understand the spread of CO…
In Italy they're personally tracking every confirmed case. Meanwhile, here in NYC, I called 311 to report my suspected case and that wasn't even a thing they were tracking. We just don't have our shit together over here, not at a state or national level.