Ioannidis was right all along.
In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
221–230 of 649 posts
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#222Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ultimately this has exposed that WHO is a malicious institution which actively undermines the public health for Tedros Adhanom's personal relationship to the cause of the CCP and of fascism more generally. Each of our government's dangerously false statements has come from the WHO, and trusting them has been the primary mistake made in assessing this threat. "no evidence of Human-to-human spread" when they had eviden…
I can’t believe this is not a new account. Blanket propagandistic statements are not the conversation we have in Hacker News comments.
Calling WHO a malicious institution is a bit too much, but let's just say that their track record is far from stellar, some examples:
In the 2017/2018 flu season the WHO recommended a trivalent vaccine for the common flu (https://www.who.int/influenza/vaccines/virus/recommendations...)
It turned out that another type B variant was the dominant one that year (https://en.ssi.dk/surveillance-and-preparedness/surveillance...) which caused a total of 1,644 deaths in Denmark, which is almost four times the current death toll for Corona virus in Denmark.
Another example: On the 3rd of march the general secretary of the WHO issued this statement: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-...
It says for example this: "Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days."
And yet here we are with a 96% asymptomatic rate being reported in a prison.
I would rather that the WHO delayed their news flow, instead of reporting too soon on what they think. Oh, and probably they should trust the Chinese regime less than they do.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#223Earlier quoted context omitted.
Covid-19 fatalities takes up to 2 months after infection, symptoms have a median of just over 5 days from first exposure.
Median of 10 days though.
Numbers I have seen where median 5.1 days from exposure to first symptoms and a median of 8 days from first symptoms to death in Italy. So, a median of ~2 weeks from exposure to death. https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/09/coronavirus-incubation-period... https://www.lastampa.it/esteri/la-stampa-in-english/2020/03/...
However, early estimates are going to be biased without the slowest fatalities. Further, that’s also population specific.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#224Earlier quoted context omitted.
I can’t believe this is not a new account. Blanket propagandistic statements are not the conversation we have in Hacker News comments.
> Blanket propagandistic statements Blanket implies "all". Are the OP's following statements incorrect?: "no evidence of Human-to-human spread" when they had evidence, "no evidence of asymptomatic spread" when we all had evidence, "no evidence of aerosol spread" when there was evidence in public view Taiwan warned the WHO with respect to human-to-human transmission. Is this in dispute? https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld…
> These are precisely the sorts of conversations people should be having.
Indeed.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#225Earlier quoted context omitted.
Did you see the NYC antibody sample that showed that approximately 21 percent of citizens had antibodies? It seems like a nursing home is a pretty bad representation of a population.
I don’t buy any inference drawn from that study that is in the realm of “20% of the population of NYC was exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and developed immunity” I think that will be the primary message that people will get from that study.
Is there any evidence that would convince you 20% of NYC was exposed and developed immunity?
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#22696% are without symptoms yet . There was a nursing home in Massachusetts which had 51 out of 98 residents testing positive but asymptomatic in early April. While this sounded encouraging in the sense no one was critically ill because of coronavirus, a few weeks later 19 had died and about 30 more had tested positive. Let’s wait a month until there is a clearer picture about the impact of the virus on a particular pop…
Did you see the NYC antibody sample that showed that approximately 21 percent of citizens had antibodies? It seems like a nursing home is a pretty bad representation of a population.
8,399,000 people in NYC, 21 percent of that is 1,763,790. 1% of that is 17,000.
So far as of Saturday at 6:49pm EST 16,919 have officially died in NYC.
I think the anti-body test in this case is fairly close and the death rate is probably 1% more or less depending on the demographic distribution. Obviously there are a number of people in NYC who will die over the next month even if all new infections where halted right now.
The serology tests are just wrong when only a small number of people in the sample were infected, which is what we’ve seen from the stuff in CA so far.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#227I've read that asymptomatic carriers are though to be less infectious than those with symptoms because of the lower concentration of virus in the saliva. Also, many virologists mentioned in recent texts that the initial concentration of the virus you receive can affect how sick you'll get - the more viruses you're exposed to, the faster they can invade the body and the more severe it will get. Can those two facts be…
Where did you read that? Superficially that might make sense - less virus particles == less obvious symptoms - but there are a wide variety of virus responses that show virulence and infectiousness aren't necessarily correlated. If anyone wants to read more about this I can't recommend highly enough the book Spillover by David Quammen, which was published in 2012, and covers zoonotic (animal-to-human transmission) vi…
A crude mathematical model from Swedish authorities on the Stockholm outbreak used two parameters: 1: the fraction of undetected cases (assumed to be mild or asymptomatic) and 2: the relative infectiousness of that group compared to the “detected” group.
The larger the undetected group is, the lower their relative infectiousness has to be in order to fit the observations. The best fit I believe was 1/25 detected and 11% infectiousness of the undetected group.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#228Every article I see about people testing asymptomatic is followed by comments insisting they were asymptomatic when tested , with no idea of whether they stayed asymptomatic or whether virtually all of them had symptoms a few days later, thus basically invalid. But this doesn't seem like a hard problem to solve, folks . Is nobody bothering to follow up with the asymptomatic people a week later? Just take their mobile…
> Just take their mobile phone number, and text them en masse with a quick Y/N question as to whether or not they got sick? I've been wondering why this isn't just being done for everyone in the country, every few days? "The main symptoms of COVID-19 are X, Y, Z. If you think you may have COVID-19 please respond "Yes" to this text message. This is free. Your response is private and used to understand the spread of CO…
Do you even need to be an official to do that? Perhaps a newspaper could do it, to accurate news.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#229One of the super-interesting things here, is that apparently everyone was in the specific window where they test positive for the virus. This implies the population was recently infected, had not been previously infected, and it spread almost completely within a tight window. This implies a shocking high R(effective) for that population. In 2 weeks we'll have super interesting data one way of the other on the CFR.
Exactly! What are the chances of that, compared to a gross error in the testing, like someone processing the samples was infected and not very careful?
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#230Earlier quoted context omitted.
Am I the only one who is still confused by what they're finding in these antibody tests? Are they looking for antibodies that attach to specific features unique to SARS-CoV-2? Because I'm pretty sure even HCoV-NL63 enter lung cells through ACE2 as well. How can they tell antibodies for these viruses apart? Also aren't antibodies effectively developed in a sort of random process?
I am also curious about this. As I understand it, an immune individual could have any mathematical subset of antibodies from the base set, which is the collection of all proteins that can bind to something on the surface of a COVID-19 virion. Furthermore, I would think these base sets can change slightly for different mutations of the virus. Perhaps humans tend to have enough random antibody generation that they are…
Look up VDJ recombination[0] for a sense of how antibodies are generated. Ling story short, yeah its pretty random in a really clever process that generates enormous variability. There are also only so many features to bind on the covid virus protein, which are what we test, but there are a lot of antibodies that our body can make against them