The cruise ships were a great Petri dish and so far it is believed that asymptomatic patients comprise 15-20%, but more research is needed.
https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/9417-covid-dp-fe-...
In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
201–210 of 649 posts
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#202Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm in a high risk category with an incurable respiratory condition. I'm convinced I've already had it and I'm mostly recovered now. I was mostly asymptomatic. The biggest thing going on was that I was very tired, which was also something easily explained by other things going on, so I was basically already on the mend before I concluded I must have had it. I believe we are barking up the wrong tree. We are looking f…
Doctors are already seeing blood clots in many COVID-19 patients. Strokes, heart attacks, and pulmonary embolisms appear to be much more common than with other forms of viral pneumonia. Some hospitals have incorporated blood thinners into their treatment protocols.
Yeah, I'm aware. For example: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22883260
I also had an interesting discussion with someone who is apparently some kind of medical researcher about zinc and blood stuff. This was very helpful to me and my sons in trying to recover our energy levels, which also firms up my suspicions that a. we had the infection and b. my mental models are less wrong than some of what is out there.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#20396% are without symptoms yet . There was a nursing home in Massachusetts which had 51 out of 98 residents testing positive but asymptomatic in early April. While this sounded encouraging in the sense no one was critically ill because of coronavirus, a few weeks later 19 had died and about 30 more had tested positive. Let’s wait a month until there is a clearer picture about the impact of the virus on a particular pop…
Did you see the NYC antibody sample that showed that approximately 21 percent of citizens had antibodies? It seems like a nursing home is a pretty bad representation of a population.
I don’t buy any inference drawn from that study that is in the realm of “20% of the population of NYC was exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and developed immunity”
I think that will be the primary message that people will get from that study.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#20496% are without symptoms yet . There was a nursing home in Massachusetts which had 51 out of 98 residents testing positive but asymptomatic in early April. While this sounded encouraging in the sense no one was critically ill because of coronavirus, a few weeks later 19 had died and about 30 more had tested positive. Let’s wait a month until there is a clearer picture about the impact of the virus on a particular pop…
Did you see the NYC antibody sample that showed that approximately 21 percent of citizens had antibodies? It seems like a nursing home is a pretty bad representation of a population.
Antibodies for which of the 8+ strains?
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nah, that has too much risk of admitting that eternal house arrest isn't a good solution, so we can be certain that won't be the media narrative.
I’m confused about this version of events that some are supporting. In your view, why does the media have a motive to engage in a secret conspiracy to not present any solutions other than an endless shutdown? How would that benefit ‘The media’?
It's not a secret! Many media outlets and government officials have been very explicit about it: shutdowns are the only option for us, it's irresponsible to demand a date when they'll end, and it's very offensive to ask whether they're worth the cost.
I do share your confusion about why the media would say such things, but they are.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
Did you see the NYC antibody sample that showed that approximately 21 percent of citizens had antibodies? It seems like a nursing home is a pretty bad representation of a population.
Am I the only one who is still confused by what they're finding in these antibody tests? Are they looking for antibodies that attach to specific features unique to SARS-CoV-2? Because I'm pretty sure even HCoV-NL63 enter lung cells through ACE2 as well. How can they tell antibodies for these viruses apart? Also aren't antibodies effectively developed in a sort of random process?
I am also curious about this. As I understand it, an immune individual could have any mathematical subset of antibodies from the base set, which is the collection of all proteins that can bind to something on the surface of a COVID-19 virion. Furthermore, I would think these base sets can change slightly for different mutations of the virus.
Perhaps humans tend to have enough random antibody generation that they are likely to start mass producing most of the protein shapes that are able to bind to the virus? And as another commenter pointed out, there are not that many options to bind to.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#207Every article I see about people testing asymptomatic is followed by comments insisting they were asymptomatic when tested , with no idea of whether they stayed asymptomatic or whether virtually all of them had symptoms a few days later, thus basically invalid. But this doesn't seem like a hard problem to solve, folks . Is nobody bothering to follow up with the asymptomatic people a week later? Just take their mobile…
The USS Theodore Roosevelt situation was discussed here several days ago. At this time about 60% of the crew who tested positive are still asymptomatic. Enough time has passed that we can be confident they aren't just presymptomatic. Numbers are pretty solid since they were all quarantined and tracked. Infection fatality rate was about 0.1%, however that's probably not representative of the general population.
Also, how should we weight the validity of the data, given the political leadership issues surrounding this situation.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#208Earlier quoted context omitted.
I did similar calculations, and found the institutions in charge give us very unreliable data. The term "corona case" is very, very, ambiguous and cannot the understood as such without a detailed explanation on how the counting was done. Thanks for sharing. I found the peek in all-case mortality also very interesting, because that way counting is much more unambiguous: dead is dead. They showed a clear diversion from…
> because that way counting is much more unambiguous: dead is dead Unrealistically low death stats coming from Turkey compared to cases easily refute that argument. Dead is dead, unless the state finds a way to claim that it was not a COVID19 dead.
No. Not unless. You misunderstand what all cause mortality means. The state can count COVID19 deaths as all bungee-jumping related the number still shows up in the total death rate. If you know what is the usual statistic you can show if there is an effect.
This is what “dead is dead” mean. One can argue what should count as a COVID19 case, and how exactly we are counting. There is a lot less argument over who is dead and who is not.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#209Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Is anybody following up on stories like this? The best follow-up we have is from the cruise ship, where at the time of testing more than half of those who tested positive were asymptomatic, but ultimately something like 80% of the confirmed infected ended up with symptoms.
Just curious - do you have any sources for this? I've heard it a few times and just looked it up - I found a paper [1] from March 12 that used "statistical modelling" to predict ~20% asymptomatic after a delay, but several articles 1-2 weeks after 12th indicating that they were still seeing ~50% (e.g. [2]). I think all the articles with that 50% number were based on the same test, but couldn't find anything suggestin…
You might be right that that statistical estimate from a month ago was the source of the 20% number. I also can’t find any good follow-up sources.
I probably saw that factoid hyped up in multiple media stories which misconstrued the original paper.
If anyone knows of more reliable recent sources about this, it would be great to clear it up.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#210Two questions:
1. How good is this test? Maybe people have no symptoms because the test is wrong?
2. Is there some reason prisoners would deny having symptoms even if they did?