I've read there are over 10,000 strains of the virus, some more deadly than others! https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080771/coro...
In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
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Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#192Earlier quoted context omitted.
Where did you read that? Superficially that might make sense - less virus particles == less obvious symptoms - but there are a wide variety of virus responses that show virulence and infectiousness aren't necessarily correlated. If anyone wants to read more about this I can't recommend highly enough the book Spillover by David Quammen, which was published in 2012, and covers zoonotic (animal-to-human transmission) vi…
I actually do remember reading that this was true specifically in the case of COVID — that more exposure so far seems to correlate with a worse infection. Sadly, I have no idea where I read this. But... I know I did! Recently! Maybe NYT?
This is the article you meant: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opinion/coronavirus-viral...
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#193Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nah, that has too much risk of admitting that eternal house arrest isn't a good solution, so we can be certain that won't be the media narrative.
I’m confused about this version of events that some are supporting. In your view, why does the media have a motive to engage in a secret conspiracy to not present any solutions other than an endless shutdown? How would that benefit ‘The media’?
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#194I've been tracking the antibody study results in a spreadsheet, and they are suggesting a 10-20x undercount of cases in the official "confirmed" numbers. You can see the data I've collected here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16onEUBWIV5IqN1RCvTla...
Your sheet is interesting. Looking at it, the IFR varies from 1.66% down to .11% and the 0.11% is for the Santa Clara, which many considered rather suspect. The 1.66%, otoh, seems reasonably in line or at least compatible with what's been observed in Korea and elsewhere. Given age is going to skew things a good deal, it seems like a picture is emerging but not that new a picture. An IFR of even 1% is pretty bad, espe…
> An IFR of even 1% is pretty bad
To be clear: it would be the most dangerous general epidemic disease since the advent of vaccination, and by a significant amount. You need to go back to measles and polio to find general population outbreaks that were more lethal.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#195Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the hope is that we could be closer to herd immunity than we think.
Any herd immunity scenario is conditionnal on immunity is long-lasting, which is far from certain considering related viruses are recurring seasonally or in single-digit year intervals. Don't bet the farm on it.
Maybe, but this particular virus is believed to not mutate much.
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#196Earlier quoted context omitted.
Did you see the NYC antibody sample that showed that approximately 21 percent of citizens had antibodies? It seems like a nursing home is a pretty bad representation of a population.
Am I the only one who is still confused by what they're finding in these antibody tests? Are they looking for antibodies that attach to specific features unique to SARS-CoV-2? Because I'm pretty sure even HCoV-NL63 enter lung cells through ACE2 as well. How can they tell antibodies for these viruses apart? Also aren't antibodies effectively developed in a sort of random process?
> Are they looking for antibodies that attach to specific features unique to SARS-CoV-2?
They're all slightly different, but yes they're looking for antibodies against specific parts of SARS-CoV-2, like the N protein [0][1]. I think the N protein ones are most common. I just did a BLASTp against SARS-CoV's N protein and there's maybe ~90% homology? So I would hope they're using a site that's different between the two. Or, there's an assumption that most people have not been previously exposed to SARS-CoV or others with similar N proteins.
> Also aren't antibodies effectively developed in a sort of random process?
Yeah, but there's only so many prominent features to a virus that you can make antibodies against.
[0] https://www.abcam.com/novel-coronavirus-igg-antibody-detecti... [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/protein/QHW06046.1?report=fasta
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#19796% are without symptoms yet . There was a nursing home in Massachusetts which had 51 out of 98 residents testing positive but asymptomatic in early April. While this sounded encouraging in the sense no one was critically ill because of coronavirus, a few weeks later 19 had died and about 30 more had tested positive. Let’s wait a month until there is a clearer picture about the impact of the virus on a particular pop…
Did you see the NYC antibody sample that showed that approximately 21 percent of citizens had antibodies? It seems like a nursing home is a pretty bad representation of a population.
I am not sure how reliable these studies are, given this reporting:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/health/coronavirus-antibo...
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#19896% are without symptoms yet . There was a nursing home in Massachusetts which had 51 out of 98 residents testing positive but asymptomatic in early April. While this sounded encouraging in the sense no one was critically ill because of coronavirus, a few weeks later 19 had died and about 30 more had tested positive. Let’s wait a month until there is a clearer picture about the impact of the virus on a particular pop…
Did you see the NYC antibody sample that showed that approximately 21 percent of citizens had antibodies? It seems like a nursing home is a pretty bad representation of a population.
It didn't show that - there's a good analysis at https://towardsdatascience.com/were-21-of-new-york-city-resi...
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#19996% are without symptoms yet . There was a nursing home in Massachusetts which had 51 out of 98 residents testing positive but asymptomatic in early April. While this sounded encouraging in the sense no one was critically ill because of coronavirus, a few weeks later 19 had died and about 30 more had tested positive. Let’s wait a month until there is a clearer picture about the impact of the virus on a particular pop…
Is it indicated how long ago these inmates were tested? Seems like that's a key component in this mystery and I can't find it.
In Marion Correctional Institution, Ohio it could look like the tests were conducted in mid-april according to https://drc.ohio.gov/Portals/0/DRC%20COVID-19%20Information%....
But as of 25-04-2020 at least 4 inmates have died to Corona virus according to https://eu.marionstar.com/story/news/local/2020/04/24/corona.... There are 2,564 inmates (https://drc.ohio.gov/mci).
Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms
#200I've read that asymptomatic carriers are though to be less infectious than those with symptoms because of the lower concentration of virus in the saliva. Also, many virologists mentioned in recent texts that the initial concentration of the virus you receive can affect how sick you'll get - the more viruses you're exposed to, the faster they can invade the body and the more severe it will get. Can those two facts be…
>> Also, many virologists mentioned in recent texts that the initial concentration of the virus you receive can affect how sick you'll get - the more viruses you're exposed to, the faster they can invade the body and the more severe it will get. That is basic infections 101. When you are exposed to any dangerous virus a race starts between the virus and your immune system. If the virus starts out only infecting a han…
Sleep deprivation and extreme stress could be factors that affect healthcare workers (1)
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-does-the-amount-of-v...