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In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

reuters.com

81–90 of 649 posts

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#81

I don't know a lot about the antibody tests. Is the novel coronavirus novel enough that they know exactly the kind they're testing? Is it a specific test for SARS-CoV-2?

The Ohio prison system is probably testing for the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not antibodies. That testing is specific to the virus (the type of test can respond to multiple viruses, but being specific to the target is one of the design criteria).

An antibody test should also generally be well targeted.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#82
post #74
post #43

Does anybody know the false positive rate of the test? Could this be an artifact of that plus low actual incidence like: - False positive rate of 10% - 100 tests - 1 true positives. All with symptoms - 9 false positives. All without symptoms (duh!) Headline: "90% asymptomatic!" Truth: "Shitty test procedure!" Yes, yes, I know you know this. Do you think people doing tests and writing headlines know this? What is the…

> They started with the Marion Correctional Institution, which houses 2,500 prisoners in north central Ohio, many of them older with pre-existing health conditions. After testing 2,300 inmates for the coronavirus, they were shocked. Of the 2,028 who tested positive, close to 95% had no symptoms.

The article almost seems to be making a point of not putting all the needed numbers together for any given population that they talk about though.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Before the deluge of "But wait two weeks" comments, I just want to ask at what point we accept that the potentially of totally asymptomatic cases is insanely high, far higher than anyone thought? Presumably in two weeks, when we know whether more of these thousands of people go on to develop symptoms or not. Is anybody following up on stories like this? Do we have any from two weeks ago?

The asymptomatic rate being that high and that many people being infected implies three things. 1) that the asymptomatic rate for this Coronavirus is much higher than other Coronaviruses. 2) but at the same time, it's more deadly than most Coronaviruses. 3) and it's also the R0 is much higher than other Coronaviruses. Isn't it more likely there's a testing issue? This seems a lot like a person that runs a SQL query t…

If the asymptomatic rate is higher, then it is less dealt, no?

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#85

No, they will develop symptoms. Test again in two weeks.

I'm in a high risk category with an incurable respiratory condition. I'm convinced I've already had it and I'm mostly recovered now. I was mostly asymptomatic. The biggest thing going on was that I was very tired, which was also something easily explained by other things going on, so I was basically already on the mend before I concluded I must have had it. I believe we are barking up the wrong tree. We are looking f…

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Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#86
post #52

I've read that asymptomatic carriers are though to be less infectious than those with symptoms because of the lower concentration of virus in the saliva. Also, many virologists mentioned in recent texts that the initial concentration of the virus you receive can affect how sick you'll get - the more viruses you're exposed to, the faster they can invade the body and the more severe it will get. Can those two facts be…

how do you ever make antibodies if you are perpetually asymptomatic though?

do you carry it forever? does it attack eventually?

what happens if you are an asymptomatic carrier and get a vax?

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#87
post #52

I've read that asymptomatic carriers are though to be less infectious than those with symptoms because of the lower concentration of virus in the saliva. Also, many virologists mentioned in recent texts that the initial concentration of the virus you receive can affect how sick you'll get - the more viruses you're exposed to, the faster they can invade the body and the more severe it will get. Can those two facts be…

I have been wondering about the effect of the degree of initial infection. I kind of assume the virus grows exponentially inside the body and would dwarf the initial constant. If a low initial dose affects the severity of the disease, I think that would be incredibly useful to know. I also wish there was info on percentage of infection via fomites vs inhalation.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#88
post #55

As a Canadian, I'm shaking my head at our officials who said "we do know that asymptomatic people are not the key driver of epidemics" as a response to concerns back in January of the potential for the virus to grow in our country via incoming travelers who came from hot spots and were not screened or forced to isolate if they expressed no symptoms. Now our long term care facilities are being overrun with cases poten…

Agreed 100%. Here in BC, public health wasn't even saying, "It's not known whether asymptomatic carriers can spread the virus," but actually, "Evidence suggests asymptomatic carriers can not spread the virus." Something that as far as I can tell was never actually true. This was reported in public briefings, was repeated by public health nurses on the call-in lines, and was distributed as the government's official position to daycare workers, presumably among others. Really mind-boggling to me. I can only assume somewhere along the line lack of evidence got confused for evidence of lack, and just kept getting parroted from there.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#89

Lets not get too excited about this. Whatever the numbers, that's interesting and worth recording for planning. But whatever they are, they result in "way too many deaths". This is still a very dangerous and rapidly-spreading virus.

I think the hope is that we could be closer to herd immunity than we think.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#90
post #86
post #52

I've read that asymptomatic carriers are though to be less infectious than those with symptoms because of the lower concentration of virus in the saliva. Also, many virologists mentioned in recent texts that the initial concentration of the virus you receive can affect how sick you'll get - the more viruses you're exposed to, the faster they can invade the body and the more severe it will get. Can those two facts be…

how do you ever make antibodies if you are perpetually asymptomatic though? do you carry it forever? does it attack eventually? what happens if you are an asymptomatic carrier and get a vax?

AFAIK asymptomatic means you show no symptoms but your body fights and creates antibodies just the same. Disclaimer: I'm not a doctor.
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