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A Third Solution

paulbuchheit.blogspot.com

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Re: A Third Solution

#361

Post by renewiltord »

clairity wrote: post #350
renewiltord wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but you work within the constraints you have. What we really need is a cure for all cancers but that doesn't exist just like no universal method for constant active driving exists. Given that, it's a pointless thing to bring up. "Just have everyone be better at things" isn't a helpful alternative.

that’s a false equivalence. every driver has the ability to refrain from texting, talking on the phone, eating their breakfast, doing their makeup, reading the paper (yes, i’ve seen this), etc. and instead focus on scanning the road and their mirrors while actively controlling their car.

I'm talking about from the view of public health administration. There is no intervention available to us that will ensure a change in behaviour economically.

We do have available to us the speed limit.

Re: A Third Solution

#362

Post by Marsymars »

ggreer wrote: post #151

I really hope this works. Without some new testing technology, I just don't see how we can stop the spread of this disease. A month ago, the US did about 100,000 tests per day. Yesterday, the US did about 200,000 tests. Growth in testing started off as exponential but now it looks linear.[1] Even if testing capability doubled every month, it would take 8 months before we could test every American once a week. (200,00…

> Even if testing capability doubled every month, it would take 8 months before we could test every American once a week.

At this point, I'd consider that a success.

Re: A Third Solution

#363

Post by shawnz »

joe_the_user wrote: post #343
mikepurvis wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hasn't that always been everyone's argument? That's the crux of Pueyo's "dance" [1], that as long as you've contained the initial outbreak, you can pretty much go back to normal if you track movement and have the capacity to test everyone who comes in contact with an infected person. [1]: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-learning-how-to-d...

This has been one major argument. The others have been: "flatten the curve - just extend the time until everyone gets it" (obvious problem, exponential growth can't work that way), "shelter in place 'till a vaccine appears" (not very practical) and "it's really not that bad, there are so many asymptomatic carriers that in the end it's not actually worse than the flu after all or at least there's nothing we can do." (…

"Flatten the curve" and "shelter in place" aren't mutually exclusive with a necessity to ramp up testing or develop a vaccine, they are just things that laypeople can be doing in the mean time to mitigate the negative effects of the virus while those other solutions are prepared.

Re: A Third Solution

#364

Post by Marsymars »

jedberg wrote: post #64
LiquidSky wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that just moves the compliance and logistics problem back one step. Who's doing this massive amount of testing? If it's the government, you'd need armies of workers spread out everywhere. If it's the owners of these buildings, who checks to ensure compliance? Imagine trying to enforce this on every non-residential building in, say, NYC. It would be practically impossible.

> If it's the owners of these buildings, who checks to ensure compliance? Who checks to make sure every restaurant follows the standards of cleanliness? They have inspectors who (theoretically) show up randomly, so it ensures most places comply voluntarily, because the cost of getting caught is very high. A combination of random inspections and steep fines would solve the compliance problem. Edit: I just had another…

There are many unlawful activities that could be solved with cash rewards for people reporting said activities.

Re: A Third Solution

#365

Post by ahupp »

smacktoward wrote: post #304
ahupp wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone says "we need more testing", but there's actually very little discussion of how that testing would translate into lower transmission. I'm skeptical any program less aggressive than the one proposed here would get R0 < 1.

Testing by itself does nothing to reduce transmission. What it does do, though, is give you the opportunity to identify infected people and isolate them. And if you can identify and isolate them early enough in the course of their illness, you can prevent them from infecting many other people, and that’s what reduces transmission. Given that it appears people with COVID-19 can shed the disease for many days before sh…

Right, but I haven't seen anything to suggest our current testing plans will be universal or frequent enough to really solve this. So testing more is certainly better than not testing, but without constant testing of non-sick people it's not really going to help much.

"Quantity has a quality all it's own"

Re: A Third Solution

#367

Post by perl4ever »

Marsymars wrote: post #364
jedberg wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If it's the owners of these buildings, who checks to ensure compliance? Who checks to make sure every restaurant follows the standards of cleanliness? They have inspectors who (theoretically) show up randomly, so it ensures most places comply voluntarily, because the cost of getting caught is very high. A combination of random inspections and steep fines would solve the compliance problem. Edit: I just had another…

There are many unlawful activities that could be solved with cash rewards for people reporting said activities.

There are many that are. Don't people get rewards for reporting malfeasance to the SEC, or ADA violations? I'm sure I've read about that, as well as about how some people think it's a questionable system. But privatization of enforcement of some regulations is a thing.

Re: A Third Solution

#368

Post by gorgoiler »

If I test positive, do I need to go straight to hospital as a precaution? I’d like something constructive to happen to happen to me (and by Golden Rule extension, anyone else who shows up as a carrier) while everyone else is running away in fear and revulsion.

What happens when I reach the front of the line at Disneyworld, enter the testing booth, and the big red light flashes? Will Disney Corporation have a record of my identity at this point as well?

It’s all very challenging. There are chilling warnings from history of both the havoc caused by mass viral illness, and also of discrimination and ostracizing based on fear.

Ideally I’d want the test to be anonymous, private, and administered by me. Like taking my temperature or feeling for swollen neck glands. Hopefully we’ll get to that point in my lifetime.

Re: A Third Solution

#369

Post by perl4ever »

zaroth wrote: post #330
dang wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you please stop posting in the flamewar style to HN? This sort of rhetoric and polemic destroys curious conversation, which is what the site exists for. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

It seemed in-kind with the “dystopia is here” rhetoric, but I understand answering in the same vein doesn’t make things better. If I could still edit the comment, I would replace the first “you” with “we”, as none of the comment is meant to be directed personally at OP. The dystopia we have is purely one of our own creation. One which TFA seems to not only welcome with open arms, but seeks to capitalize upon. It’s re…

There are two things that don't make sense to me about your original post.

One is that cash is not a resource. It's even less of a resource when it's not only not metal, but mostly not paper either.

The other is that the flu comparison doesn't make sense to me on multiple levels. Given deaths from COVID at the moment are nearly ten times flu on an annualized basis, given the partial shutdown, obviously they would be more than ten times without the shutdown...but what is even significant about exactly one order of magnitude?

Re: A Third Solution

#370

Post by perl4ever »

tlb wrote: post #39
rguzman wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it is pretty clear, but the conclusion of the parent is still pretty strong: > Sounds like a logistical nightmare.

Making most people a coffee every day also seems like a logistical nightmare. But we built that infrastructure.

Using coffee as an example, there's enormous diversity in how people make it and what (mostly unnecessary) resources they put in.
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