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A Third Solution

paulbuchheit.blogspot.com

211–220 of 535 posts

Re: A Third Solution

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you’re missing the second half of the random chance argument. you could also have driven right past a collision that would have happened at a slower speed.

That makes no sense. The “collision that would have happened at a slower speed” wouldn’t happen at a slower speed because you’d see it coming in time to react and avoid it.

just because you are driving slower doesn’t mean that a surprise event doesn’t happen faster than your reaction time.

Re: A Third Solution

#212
The post refers to an alternative method of testing for COVID-19 based on surface plasmon resonance that would have significant advantages, but unfortunately it provides absolutely no real substantiation that the test exists or works. The link about surface plasmon resonance goes to a generic Wikipedia page, the link about saliva is a small scale study that was conducted on RT-PCR not surface plasmon resonance, and the actual link to the team goes to a nothing more than splash screen with the company logo on it.

If there is substance to this then it would be massively in Paul's (and the company's) interest to better link to that in both the post and the company web site. At the moment, it looks like at worst vaporware or at best, something so early stage it's years out from viability.

Re: A Third Solution

#214
post #73

This assumes that "economic activity will restart". Humans won't participate in dangerous activities. They may test the waters e.g. by ggoing to gyms, but as soon as a single case is found they 'll be scared back into their homes. It will happen even more so as the disease spreads and people learn about the death of someone they know. This will happen regardless of how much testing. If you 're doing contact tracing r…

If humans were so extremely risk averse that a single case is unacceptable, wouldn't we have naturally isolated ourselves without requiring lockdown orders?

they did not know how dangerous it is. i think attitudes will change everywhere

Re: A Third Solution

#215
post #191

I think the ubiquitous testing is the right approach, but I don't think we need a new test. Any test that requires a machine is going to be a severe bottleneck in testing. Far better to use one of the antibody test strips. Prick your finger to get blood, or spit some saliva on a strip and you know in 5 minutes if you have antibodies. Just keep testing everyone on a regular basis, and once they test positive, they are…

Someone would be infected and contagious for awhile before developing antibodies though.

Re: A Third Solution

#216
I was curious about the company that's being touted in this post so I did a little searching. The website doesn't seem to have much on it.

I guess it's a YC17 company. The founders are Caroline Landau, Tim Cornell, Walker McHugh. From 2016: Landau was an MBA candidate, the other two founders have biomedical research/medical backgrounds: Walker McHugh, Co-Founder, PreDxion Bio / Biomedical engineering candidate, University of Michigan Dr. Tim Cornell, Co-Founder, PreDxion Bio / Pediatric Critical Care Physician, University of Michigan (https://www.hbs.edu/openforum/openforum.hbs.org/goto/challen...)

At least until recently, the company focused on making diagnostics for immune disorders (microkine) for CAR-T patients which I can't find much detail on. I don't know if it's related to the SPR-based tests mentioned in the pb post.

They received a government business grant (SBIR) in 2018 and have some VC funding.

It looks like this post demonstrates their pivot to a specific infectious disease, and from a hospital provider setting to a public setting.

As an ex-advisor to a successful (in bio) VC fund, this is not something I would really spend a lot of time considering. There are too many non-technical hurdles that would need to be jumped before this was widespread, popular, effective, and profitable.

Re: A Third Solution

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn’t really make sense. If you’re driving too fast, even with perfect focus you could hit someone or something before your normal reaction time could recognize and avoid it.

you’re missing the second half of the random chance argument. you could also have driven right past a collision that would have happened at a slower speed.

I'm sympathetic to raising speed limits like any good Californian. But there's an asymmetry in the positions, in that more reaction time is universally better than less reaction time.

Re: A Third Solution

#218
This is essentially what South Korea did. Granted it was done in a different way but everyone was “tested.” I was there just as covid-19 was on the rise and every shop, every station, and every high traffic area had people set up with thermal guns. Shop staff were having their temps checked before their shifts started. Everyone was gloved and masked. And once they had a proper test in place it was made easily accessible — even set up drive through testing.

And now they are pretty much back to normal while much of the world is still at a standstill.

Re: A Third Solution

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Diamond Princess averaged (mean age, 62 years ± 16, range 25-93) years old. That's not the demographic we're discussing. We know they're way, way worse off than younger folks. I was also informed that the "73% asymptomatic" rate they quote in this article dwindled down to below 18%. Your study also appears to indicate that the amount of damage is correlated to severity of the disease ("The CT severity score was h…

I was making the point that this disease is an issue for the young and it causes damage to the lungs even in the absence of symptoms. This is a serious disease that needs to be taken seriously.

> I was making the point that this disease is an issue for the young...

[citation needed]

> ... and it causes damage to the lungs even in the absence of symptoms.

The data you provided did not back up your assertion. I have not seen any data the backs up your assertion. If you have some, please do share it.

The data you provided suggested 73% of those folks were asymptomatic when in fact only 18% of them were upon further investigation. That brings into question all of their conclusions. Its interim conclusions suggest that there is a correlation between symptomaticity and severity (I mean, duh) and the articles I provided showed children exhibited milder symptoms.

> This is a serious disease that needs to be taken seriously.

Yes, it is, and it's not equally serious to everyone. It is less serious than the flu for children. This is substantiated fact. We can use this information to our advantage as we determine our next steps.

Re: A Third Solution

#220
post #212

The post refers to an alternative method of testing for COVID-19 based on surface plasmon resonance that would have significant advantages, but unfortunately it provides absolutely no real substantiation that the test exists or works. The link about surface plasmon resonance goes to a generic Wikipedia page, the link about saliva is a small scale study that was conducted on RT-PCR not surface plasmon resonance, and t…

He should also disclose any personal interest in it more clearly at the top of the article.
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