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Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

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Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#621

Post by FiberBundle »

tigershark wrote: post #620
FiberBundle wrote: post #618

Earlier quoted context omitted.

South Korea apparently has conducted 11500 tests/ 1m population. It's ridiculous to claim that they detected every covid case and to suggest that their cfr is a lower bound for the ifr.

They tested everyone that was in contact with a reported case, I never claimed that they tested the whole population. How do you explain that they are showing only a single digit increase of new cases per day if, as you assert, there is a huge number of unaccounted cases?

Probably by implementing strict quarantine measures at the start of the pandemic. They likely had many undetected cases in the beginning as well, the quarantine reduced the pool of infected people a lot. Given that the number of infected people is relatively low right now, their testing capacity probably allows for fairly good tracing of cases, which is one of the primary reasons why their numbers remain low, in addition to factors such as social distancing and high hygiene standards. But the large number of undetected cases in the beginning would would reduce the ifr significantly.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#622

Post by cm2187 »

CydeWeys wrote: post #514
varenc wrote: post #459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the overwhelming majority of people are visiting grocery stores to buy food. (Or have someone in their household doing it) If the studied presume this then it makes more sense.

You can't assume that. I know plenty of people who haven't left their apartments in a month plus, because they're having groceries ordered in. And you completely missed the point that people who are going outside a lot more often are both (a) more likely to have been exposed to COVID-19, and (b) more likely to be encountered by your survey. If there are e.g. 700 daily shoppers and 700 weekly shoppers going to a given…

The study wasn't one day but one week, and even then, I assume they wouldn't be stupid enough to collect blood from the same person over and over.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#623

Post by tangent-man »

To assume the infection fatality ratio(IFR)is 0.5% from this is retarded. We know that when covid-19 began to spread in South Korea at first it spread among a younger population who were ignoring or at least not following government advise so closely and taking chances the IFR was looking like about 0.7% to start with (In SK). We know this as SK kept excellent data / records to begin with. We also know that the Diamond Princess with a more generally aged population has a IFR of 13% +. We know this is a disease that adversely effects the elderly and infirm (in the developed world) If you are over 80 getting covid you might as well play Russian roulette with a Magnum .45 .These groups of people know there at risk, so if they have any sanity they are staying the hell at home. So people who are going into the Grocery store in NY city aren't representative of this population. This is why we are staying at home mostly to protect the old and infirm. That's not to say you want Covid-19 yourself either because there's about a 5% chance you will end up in the ICU (and an as yet undisclosed chance of death) even if your a member of the Hungarian Olympic Shot-Putting team. This does kill young tough people, it does happen but this is mostly killing the elderly and infirm. Why are people so fecking retarded? I can't take this anymore!! Stay the Sm3g at home! It's stopping the hospitals being overloaded.. It's buying us time to figure out new treatments / how to treat this better.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#624

Post by cm2187 »

wtvanhest wrote: post #601
varenc wrote: post #459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the overwhelming majority of people are visiting grocery stores to buy food. (Or have someone in their household doing it) If the studied presume this then it makes more sense.

I’m starting to believe that the difference in opinions on whether these studies are legitimate or not hinges heavily on personal behavior. For my wife and I and kid, we live in SF and order food when we can from grocery. When we can’t, I put on an N99 mask and gloves and buy 2 weeks worth of groceries. Then go through a ritual to be as safe as possible entering the home and bringing groceries in. If someone asks me…

I'm afraid the population who has these options (and spends its time on hackernews) is called the 1% for a reason, and probably aren't going to bias the stats significantly.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#625

Post by apexalpha »

tangent-man wrote: post #623

To assume the infection fatality ratio(IFR)is 0.5% from this is retarded. We know that when covid-19 began to spread in South Korea at first it spread among a younger population who were ignoring or at least not following government advise so closely and taking chances the IFR was looking like about 0.7% to start with (In SK). We know this as SK kept excellent data / records to begin with. We also know that the Diamo…

Read an article that over half of Europe's Covid deaths might be from nursing homes...

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#626

Post by kavalg »

themgt wrote: post #466
scythe wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In comparing the COVID-19 IFR to the flu IFR, it is important to remember that flu vaccines are widely available and limit the spread of influenza. For example, CDC retrospectives for 2018-9 estimate that 35M Americans[1] got influenza over the flu season, or less than 12%. By contrast, the current COVID-19 infection rate in New York (from these data) is already higher than 12%. So COVID-19 has the potential to infec…

It's actually important to point out, the CDC is very explicit that they are estimating flu illnesses , in their own words "an estimated 34 million people had symptomatic influenza illness" Many people are attempting to extrapolate asymptomatic COVID to estimate an infection fatality rate and then making comparisons to CDC flu data for symptomatic illness, which is completely wrong. Actual flu sero studies suggest a…

Is there any actual evidence that the flu vaccines indeed work? Given that 'flu' is actually a very broad term for a disease that can be caused by =many different viruses that also mutate each year.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#627

Post by jobigoud »

gorbachev wrote: post #598
chasd00 wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

as others have said, the area under the curve remains the same. The idea with Sweden is, after one year, the deaths will be about the same as everywhere else.

If the hospitals get overcrowded, there will also be more people dying from other causes and suffering from long term consequences, because a percentage of them won't be able to receive adequate care. I haven't seen any actual data on how big that impact might be, however.

Even without overwhelmed hospitals there is a lot of excess mortality not directly explained by published COVID-19 death numbers. Including in Sweden.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#628

Post by tomatocracy »

mhandley wrote: post #445
t2riRXawYxLGGYb wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was my thought exactly. Some of my friends in the Bay area got COVID-19 (confirmed positive tests) after quarantining for over two weeks at home and taking all of the precautions. The only place they had been was the grocery store, so they suspect that they got it there.

The incubation period runs out to around 27 days, though above 2 weeks is uncommon. It seems possible one of them already had it before quarantine, and just happened to be one of those who had a long incubation period. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incuba...

I obviously don’t know whether that’s the case here but its also possible that some of these anecdotal stories (I’ve heard similar from colleagues) involve someone in the same household having had an asymptomatic case acquired prior to quarantining and transmitting it to others in the same household who then get symptoms after a week or two.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#629

Post by tangent-man »

apexalpha wrote: post #625
tangent-man wrote: post #623

To assume the infection fatality ratio(IFR)is 0.5% from this is retarded. We know that when covid-19 began to spread in South Korea at first it spread among a younger population who were ignoring or at least not following government advise so closely and taking chances the IFR was looking like about 0.7% to start with (In SK). We know this as SK kept excellent data / records to begin with. We also know that the Diamo…

Read an article that over half of Europe's Covid deaths might be from nursing homes...

Sounds plausible. Do you have a link to that article? I'm not trying to bate you, I'd genuinely like to read it.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#630

Post by easytiger »

ericb wrote: post #331
easytiger wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As with any viral pneumonia

Any novel viral pneumonia. A garden snake and a cobra are both snakes. Belonging to the same category says nothing about the potency of their bite. We have no idea what kind of snake this is yet.

We have a pretty good idea
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