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Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

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Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#591

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is like the third or fourth spot I've seen on this very site where people are postulating that covid deaths would have really died in "months" anyway. Why is this so weirdly consistent? To be clear: there is absolutely no evidence for a number like that, none at all. Typical at-risk patients with comorbidity like advanced age or obesity are routinely expected to live for decades. Actual conditions with a death-i…

If you look at the median age of covid fatalities in Italy at age 81.5, this question is entirely valid. Some of the numbers I read pointed to a 16-20% all cause mortality rate for that group irrespective of covid. So by definition the circles overlap to a meaningful extent.

Can you link to the sources you read?

Also, that 16-20% mortality rate is surely quoted per year, meaning that the expected life expectancy would be 5+ years, not a few months!

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#592
post #317

> In his press conference today, Governor Cuomo revealed the preliminary results of a first-phase antibody test that surveyed 3,000 New Yorkers over two days in 19 counties at 40 locations that included grocery and big-box stores. The sample suggests that 13.9% of New York State residents have the antibodies, meaning they had the virus at one point and recovered. Of the regions tested–Long Island, NYC, Westchester/Ro…

> New York City had the highest positive rate at 21.2%. The potential good news to come to light is that the death rate may be far lower than some estimates, at 0.5%. How do they get to 0.5%? According to NYC data if you include "probable" cases, 15,400 people, or 0.18% of the population, are already dead. Wouldn't that imply 0.9% fatalities if the whole city was infected?

The data that NYC publishes daily is super interesting since it breaks down cases/deaths by race, gender, age (group), and presence of underlying health conditions [1].

The gist of it is that the majority of deaths from COVID-19 were suffered by people who had some kind of other health issue. As of the most recent data (April 22 at 6pm), 61 deaths were from people with no underlying health issues, 7,474 from people known to have underlying health issues, and 2,755 from people with unknown status [0]. The elderly in poor health are much more likely to die than the young in poor health. But when healthy, the elderly have pretty close to the same fatality rate as the young [2].

[0]: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-d...

[1]: Bottom of this page: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

[2]: Cross reference this with [0]: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-d...

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#593
post #578
post #570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> arguing that anyone willing to get serological testing is substantially more likely to be infected than those who are not. Yes, which is clearly true, no? > That's little more than a fancy way of disregarding any testing result you don't happen to like. We all have biases. I'm not sure how pointing out that adverse selection is a thing, though, is a bias. Any stats can be quibbled with, and I have no personal skin…

"Yes, which is clearly true, no?" No. As far as I can tell, approximately 100% of people in New York want to be tested, for many different reasons. You're assuming something and projecting it as truth. "These studies would ideally be true random samples so that we can know what the true infection rate is." But by your own logic, there can be no "random sample"...we can't tie people down and force them to be tested, s…

> No. As far as I can tell, approximately 100% of people in New York want to be tested, for many different reasons. You're assuming something and projecting it as truth.

In NY, the issue was not about wanting to be tested, it was about "are you there when they're picking people to test"; quoting from the article, which is very thin on info, people were selected "at 40 locations that included grocery and big-box stores". (In Santa Clara, with the Facebook ads, people "wanting to be tested" by going to a testing center is not anywhere close to 100%.)

The assumption that people who are at grocery and big-box stores are representative, infection-wise, of the population of a whole is not obviously true to me. Many other posters in this thread point out reasons why they might be more likely to be infected.

> But by your own logic, there can be no "random sample"...we can't tie people down and force them to be tested

This approach may go against American sensibilities, but other states (SK, DE, IT) have had better luck with the approach of sampling everyone in a town/region/area. Or at least pick people truly at random, not just a random sample of people who happen to show up in a public place in the middle of a pandemic with a shelter-in-place order in effect. (Also, I'm not sure how "my own logic" makes any claims about the impossibility of a random sample, could you elaborate?)

Even in America, you can at least try to account for the ways in which your sample is likely to be different from a truly random sample. The study by Stanford in Santa Clara county I know at least tried to do this, but of course you can't account for "thinks is infected" as a demographic attribute because that's the dependent variable; I don't know if the NYC study did this type of accounting, but I assume they tried to too.

> The truth is, the New York study did pretty much what we always do to get a random sample: asked a bunch of people at random to participate in the program.

You clearly know about sample bias, so I'm not sure why you think going to a single location (or even 40 single locations) and randomly asking people to be sampled is a good way to get a random sample. Think about going to every Costco and Whole Foods in the state and asking "people at random" for their political views. You're going to get a biased sample, even though you're nominally asking people at random. You can try to account for bias, based on demographic factors you observe in your sample that correlate with political views, right?

But we don't know enough about infection rate to be able to effectively account for infection rate given that people who are showing up at grocery and big-box stores on a random day are more likely to be exposed (they're at a store!) and thus more likely to have been infected than the population as a whole? Literally the only info you have is that they're more likely to be infected -- there aren't well-established demographic correlates with infection.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#594

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OP's whole point is it's not a good sample because people were recruited while grocery shopping...I can't think of a more tech industry-oriented view of the world; most people work from home on zoom and use instacart right?? No. I'd expect people who order deliveries online and can do their entire job on Zoom/slack all day to be a minority to the point where including them in the study would be covered in a sampling…

You’re completely missing the point. The selection effects would be things like able-bodied / non-immunocompromised / already-recovered people being selected way higher, which would inflate the apparent infected population size estimate and underestimate the death rate among those infected. This is not some snooty tech point of view - this kind of flaw in statistical studies matters a lot. The more important the poli…

I don't think anyone disagrees that the sample has bias. On the other hand, since the majority of people have no choice but to grocery shop in person, I do not think the sample is as tilted as you imply.

And even if it were--- it's notable that it's this easy to find a subgroup with cleared infections this far above what was anticipated to be found across NY/NYC.

And-- it's remarkably consistent with statistical estimates made through a variety of other means, e.g. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.18.20070821v...

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is about 1/2 of what die in a normal year. The real question is how much do those circles overlap. Are we saving lives, or are people now dying in June that would have died in November anyway?

This is like the third or fourth spot I've seen on this very site where people are postulating that covid deaths would have really died in "months" anyway. Why is this so weirdly consistent? To be clear: there is absolutely no evidence for a number like that, none at all. Typical at-risk patients with comorbidity like advanced age or obesity are routinely expected to live for decades. Actual conditions with a death-i…

Just some numbers:

In Sweden, which only has a voluntary lockdown, over 30% of covid19 dead come from elderly homes[0]. Swedish elderly care is highly focused on keeping the elderly independent (at home) as long as possible, so the people in elderly homes are the ones in the worst state - 20% don't even survive one month from arrival[1] (I saw another statistic that 40% don't survive 6 months, but I can't find that source, google search results are now overwhelmed with covid19 news)

That may point to an upper bound of 30% on the people dying from this that would have died "within months/a year anyway"

[0] https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/kan-finnas-morkertal-over...

[1] https://www.svt.se/nyheter/val2014/allt-farre-far-plats-pa-a...

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#596
post #317

> In his press conference today, Governor Cuomo revealed the preliminary results of a first-phase antibody test that surveyed 3,000 New Yorkers over two days in 19 counties at 40 locations that included grocery and big-box stores. The sample suggests that 13.9% of New York State residents have the antibodies, meaning they had the virus at one point and recovered. Of the regions tested–Long Island, NYC, Westchester/Ro…

Sure all of these studies are potentially flawed but they're all generally pointing in the same direction. There are many more infections than we know about and the CFR is not anywhere close to the actual IFR. NYC is an outlier with a 21% infection estimate but for the rest of NY (outside NYC metro/Westchester/LI) the estimate is 3.6%. Santa Clara estimate was 3%. LA County estimate was 4%. Seems like a trend is deve…

Nope, because they're all designed to skew higher. People who are out shopping, people who will go out of their way on a weekend to be tested, healthcare workers... all of them are likely skewed high. One might as well conclude (with as much evidence) that the purpose of the tests is to show higher infection rates. Still, nobody doubts that we're under testing by a factor of 3-5x to catch a majority of cases.

What's disturbing is that if you take the estimated statewide data of 2.7M infected (out of ~20M) at face value and only the current 21k dead you still get 0.7-0.8% fatality rate.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#597

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't have perfect studies and perfect data but calling these tests "bad" seems slightly unfair. They give us an imperfect but useful snapshot of what's going on. But thanks for the condescension. I'd expect nothing less on HN.

The study is dramatically over-sampling exactly the people who have the most potential exposure to COVID-19, and dramatically over-sampling the people who don't. This could easily be way off. It's not testing the people who aren't home at all, and it has a low chance of only testing the people who leave home rarely, only when strictly necessary. It's mainly finding the people who leave home a lot.

Most people go to the grocery store. There seems to be this attitude on HN of immediately dismissing research. No human research is ever perfect, flaws and limitations will always be present, and in the present case, study designs are being expedited in order to be timely. Each study is a piece, and together can provide convergent evidence.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would not really call the Swedish model successful - Czech Republic and Sweden have both about 10 million inhabitants. Things moved pretty quickly to pretty comprehensive lockdown here in Czech Republic, including mandatory mask wearing. So far this seem to be effective, with combined death toll currently at 210. In comparison Sweden has almost 10x as much, 2010 dead. Looks like if more has been done less people co…

as others have said, the area under the curve remains the same. The idea with Sweden is, after one year, the deaths will be about the same as everywhere else.

If the hospitals get overcrowded, there will also be more people dying from other causes and suffering from long term consequences, because a percentage of them won't be able to receive adequate care.

I haven't seen any actual data on how big that impact might be, however.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#599

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OP's whole point is it's not a good sample because people were recruited while grocery shopping...I can't think of a more tech industry-oriented view of the world; most people work from home on zoom and use instacart right?? No. I'd expect people who order deliveries online and can do their entire job on Zoom/slack all day to be a minority to the point where including them in the study would be covered in a sampling…

You’re completely missing the point. The selection effects would be things like able-bodied / non-immunocompromised / already-recovered people being selected way higher, which would inflate the apparent infected population size estimate and underestimate the death rate among those infected. This is not some snooty tech point of view - this kind of flaw in statistical studies matters a lot. The more important the poli…

This is a convenience sample no doubt, but convenience is important here, as timeliness is important. It is easy to naysay, but why don't you suggest a less biased convenience sample? Because unless you mandate whole population testing, samples will always be biased in some way. Those who have phones, those who have time, those who are motivated, etc etc. Given all the potential ways it could be biased, choosing a convenience sample at locations almost universally used is not bad at all, imo

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#600

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NYC is not suburbia. I believe a higher percentage are still working outside of their homes (and, in many cases, that also means travelling on public transport), and a smaller percentage have the financial and transport resources to significantly reduce the frequency of their shopping trips. Apartment living means a greater exposure to your neighbors whenever you do enter or exit. The sampling in NYC, while far from…

As a (40-something) NYC resident, I don't believe that is accurate. Half of the people I know are working from home and stocked up on 1-2 months of food at the outset of this. The other half left the city and are now staying with friends/family in other states or have rented homes elsewhere. Those that did stay and still need food (ie produce) are having it delivered. People who are shopping in stores are absolutely…

Your sample of NYC residents is very likely non-representative...or biased
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