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Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

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Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#261

Post by karagenit »

alkibiades wrote: post #70
cjhopman wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but a person who goes to the store 7 times a week is ~7 times as likely to have been sampled compared to someone who goes only once a week. They are also ~7 times as likely to have contracted covid-19 at the grocery store. It's likely that they are also, in general, isolating less than the other. This sampling would have a (possibly slight, but still unknown) bias towards people who are isolating less (who you…

going 7 times doesn’t actually increase the likelihood 7x but your point still stands that they would be far more likely to get it

Well, sort of. The increase in likelihood of being sampled due to going to the store N times more than the average person is a function of N and P (the probability of being sampled in any given trip) such that

f(N, P): (1 - ((1-P)^N)) / P

For a large P you're right, but as P gets very small (let's say that in any given trip you have a 0.01% chance of being sampled) then the increase in likelihood of being sampled approaches N times as much (in this example, it would be 6.999 times as likely). Of course, this assumes they're taking measures to ensure no one gets sampled twice.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#262

Post by dragonwriter »

mrb wrote: post #183

If this study is accurate, then 1.8 million NYC resident are infected. So 15 411 deaths (as of today, including 5 121 probable deaths) suggests COVID-19 has a fatality rate of MINIMUM 0.9% which is in line with previous estimates (between 0.5 and 1.6%) and this is MINIMUM 9 times more fatal than the flu (0.1%). Edited to add "MINIMUM", as there is a lag between case detection and death (I should have known better to…

> If this study is accurate, then 1.8 million NYC resident are infected. So 10 290 deaths (as of today) suggests COVID-19 has a fatality rate of 0.6%

No, it doesn't, because the usual time to death, if it causes death, isn't zero, so you need to compare the number of deaths a couple weeks from now with the number of infections today to get a closer-to-accurate number.

Also, you are using the 10,290 confirmed deaths and i ignoring the 5,121+ additional identified probable COVID-19 deaths. So, between those two things, the actual fatality rate if the current infection estimate from this study is right is probably 2-3 times the figure you cite.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#263

Post by robocat »

votepaunchy wrote: post #78
nullc wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep in mind that if 21% of NYC residence have been infected this probably implies R0 in that population was higher than in most prior estimates of R0, which increases the threshold of immune people before R0 falls below 1.

It also implies that the R0 of the already-infected population is higher than that of the not-yet-affected population.

R0 varies hugely. The R0 for highly connected people meeting others regularly, will be far higher than the R0 for people who only leave the house once a week. The R0 in a crowded prison will be far higher than the R0 of rural farm owners.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#264

Post by DeonPenny »

empath75 wrote: post #231
DeonPenny wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also lower than the 3% that was predicted that people used to justify the shutdown and closer inline with the swine flu or rotovirus.

Nobody ever seriously suggested it was 3%. The estimates were always around 1%

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-r...

I mean there were articles like this all of march. I'm not saying the WHO or CDC might of said something different but lets acknowledge there were articles proclaiming a 3% death rate.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#265

Post by grandmczeb »

empath75 wrote: post #231
DeonPenny wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also lower than the 3% that was predicted that people used to justify the shutdown and closer inline with the swine flu or rotovirus.

Nobody ever seriously suggested it was 3%. The estimates were always around 1%

Lots of people were seriously suggesting >3%.

Edit: Removed the term revisionism since I wasn't aware of the historical connotation.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#266

Post by joe_the_user »

mrb wrote: post #183

If this study is accurate, then 1.8 million NYC resident are infected. So 15 411 deaths (as of today, including 5 121 probable deaths) suggests COVID-19 has a fatality rate of MINIMUM 0.9% which is in line with previous estimates (between 0.5 and 1.6%) and this is MINIMUM 9 times more fatal than the flu (0.1%). Edited to add "MINIMUM", as there is a lag between case detection and death (I should have known better to…

Also,

I don't the flu's fatality is calculated against every exposed to the flu but against everyone who gets sick with the flu. If the flu also 50% asymptomatic exposed individuals, that would know it's fatality rate down further for comparison's sake.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#267

Post by glofish »

Merrill wrote: post #256
ashaiber wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The city itself actually estimates a total of 15,411 deaths so far the the figure is already closer to 0.9%, and there are still people dying in the city every day so will likely end up a bit higher (of course, all of this assuming the study actually represents reality). https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

You also have to adjust for the people who are already sick but haven't died yet. That would likely get you somewhere between 1 and 1.5%. So for herd immunity in the US at 200,000,000 recovered, that would be 2 to 3 million. That's consistent with earlier projections.

one problem with all these projections is that they all assume everyone is the same and that it is just a matter of chance. Not true in the least bit.

those most susceptible get the disease first, those most sensitive die first -

I believe the ratios will not stay the same, but continuously tick downwards

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#268

Post by zucker42 »

rubidium wrote: post #21
cozzyd wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had the opposite conclusion. There are between 10k-15k COVID-19 associated deaths in NYC, depending on how you count (the higher rate is consistent with the excess-mortality data, I believe). That by itself produces a range of ~0.56%-0.86% if you assume 21.2 % of NYC has been infected (larger range if you allow for some error on the infection rate, obviously). Moreover, we don't know what fraction of the currently-…

“ Moreover, we don't know what fraction of the currently-infected who will die have already died. A reasonable guess might be 50%” I lost you at reasonable guess. Why not ~1%?

The virus takes time (2-3 weeks) to kill people, and the prevalence was presumably measured within the last week.

Therefore, we have to take out the cases that occurred in the last week or two. I would suspect that 50% is on the upper end of how much the death lag could skew the results, but 20-50% doesn't seem unreasonable.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#269

Post by buboard »

3fe9a03ccd14ca5 wrote: post #20

At what point have we scientifically reached "herd immunity"? Is it 50%, 90%, 99%?

i think people misunderstand what herd immunity is. If NYC has 80% infection rate, then people within NYC can assume immunity. People outside NYC having 5% are still vulnerable

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#270

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

DeonPenny wrote: post #214
mrb wrote: post #183

If this study is accurate, then 1.8 million NYC resident are infected. So 15 411 deaths (as of today, including 5 121 probable deaths) suggests COVID-19 has a fatality rate of MINIMUM 0.9% which is in line with previous estimates (between 0.5 and 1.6%) and this is MINIMUM 9 times more fatal than the flu (0.1%). Edited to add "MINIMUM", as there is a lag between case detection and death (I should have known better to…

It's also lower than the 3% that was predicted that people used to justify the shutdown and closer inline with the swine flu or rotovirus.

Regardless of initial estimates, how is 0.6% - 1% "closer inline" to 0.026%[1]? Even based upon the low range that's 30X more fatal.

[1] http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8406723.stm

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