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Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

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Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#251

Post by grandmczeb »

cozzyd wrote: post #246
grandmczeb wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not clear what kind of antibodies they’re testing for, but it can take up to 4 weeks after infection to develop detectable levels of antibodies. It takes on average ~3 weeks after infection to die. There needs to be some time lag adjustment in your calculation, which would likely result in a lower IFR. IMO the two effects probably about cancel each other out and we’re looking at <1% IFR for the population tested…

I guess I would assume they would have corrected for any time-lag in the result, but I have not read the study in detail

Right now it's just a press release so there's not much to read. Cuomo's statement reads to me that is just demographically adjusted though.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#252

Post by pjc50 »

ashaiber wrote: post #228
mrb wrote: post #183

If this study is accurate, then 1.8 million NYC resident are infected. So 15 411 deaths (as of today, including 5 121 probable deaths) suggests COVID-19 has a fatality rate of MINIMUM 0.9% which is in line with previous estimates (between 0.5 and 1.6%) and this is MINIMUM 9 times more fatal than the flu (0.1%). Edited to add "MINIMUM", as there is a lag between case detection and death (I should have known better to…

The city itself actually estimates a total of 15,411 deaths so far the the figure is already closer to 0.9%, and there are still people dying in the city every day so will likely end up a bit higher (of course, all of this assuming the study actually represents reality). https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

So .. drawing a line between two points, if NY had 20% immunity for 15k dead, that implies there will be 60k dead by the end of the process. Roughly one 9/11 every week or so?

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#253

Post by taeric »

rootusrootus wrote: post #233
taeric wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is the point of my question. There has been no evidence of damage in non severe cases. Indeed, we are having to get complicated testing to find out many people had it at all.

There have been a number of reports of folks who were diagnosed with otherwise asymptomatic COVID when they had a CT for an unrelated reason that showed their lungs with GGO. And in some cases they have shown no signs of recovery even weeks later.

A link would be awesome. And we would still need to ascertain that they did not have this damage before getting covid. :(. CT scans have a troubled history of seeing damage that preexisted. (See back pains)

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#254

Post by proto-n »

taeric wrote: post #162
op00to wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do non-severe cases cause lung damage too? Is the lung damage heal able?

That is the point of my question. There has been no evidence of damage in non severe cases. Indeed, we are having to get complicated testing to find out many people had it at all.

How about this article [1] (translation at reddit [2]) about german divers who had "mild cases" (no hospitalization, recovered at home) and were found to have suffered permanent lung damage, so severe that they can't dive anymore.

[1] https://www.rainews.it/tgr/tagesschau/articoli/2020/04/tag-C...

[2] https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/g3rv7h/permame...

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#255

Post by zucker42 »

cryptonector wrote: post #208

At 21% it would be time to end the shutdown. EDIT: Read the comments below.

That doesn't make sense to me. I would think you'd want to get to the point where you've reached the carrying capacity, so that "overshoot" of the equilibrium doesn't result.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#256

Post by Merrill »

ashaiber wrote: post #228
mrb wrote: post #183

If this study is accurate, then 1.8 million NYC resident are infected. So 15 411 deaths (as of today, including 5 121 probable deaths) suggests COVID-19 has a fatality rate of MINIMUM 0.9% which is in line with previous estimates (between 0.5 and 1.6%) and this is MINIMUM 9 times more fatal than the flu (0.1%). Edited to add "MINIMUM", as there is a lag between case detection and death (I should have known better to…

The city itself actually estimates a total of 15,411 deaths so far the the figure is already closer to 0.9%, and there are still people dying in the city every day so will likely end up a bit higher (of course, all of this assuming the study actually represents reality). https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

You also have to adjust for the people who are already sick but haven't died yet. That would likely get you somewhere between 1 and 1.5%. So for herd immunity in the US at 200,000,000 recovered, that would be 2 to 3 million. That's consistent with earlier projections.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#257

Post by rallison »

DeonPenny wrote: post #214
mrb wrote: post #183

If this study is accurate, then 1.8 million NYC resident are infected. So 15 411 deaths (as of today, including 5 121 probable deaths) suggests COVID-19 has a fatality rate of MINIMUM 0.9% which is in line with previous estimates (between 0.5 and 1.6%) and this is MINIMUM 9 times more fatal than the flu (0.1%). Edited to add "MINIMUM", as there is a lag between case detection and death (I should have known better to…

It's also lower than the 3% that was predicted that people used to justify the shutdown and closer inline with the swine flu or rotovirus.

An IFR of 0.6%, with 2/3 of the US infected (about what you'd need for herd immunity at an R0 of 3), means ~1.3 million deaths. That's well in line with the models. The distinction between CFR and IFR was not news to the experts.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#258

Post by cm2187 »

creaghpatr wrote: post #196
cm2187 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know if the hospitalisation rate is so out of whack vs the flu. It should be higher. But does 20% of the population catches the flu in a matter of weeks?

Much of the population gets a flu vaccine so would be tricky to compare.

My very point. It contaminates people at a slower pace, for that reason and cross immunity, higher R0, etc.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#259

Post by bryansum »

taeric wrote: post #162
op00to wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do non-severe cases cause lung damage too? Is the lung damage heal able?

That is the point of my question. There has been no evidence of damage in non severe cases. Indeed, we are having to get complicated testing to find out many people had it at all.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#260

Post by grandmczeb »

taeric wrote: post #247
grandmczeb wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rereading your first comment, I think you might be thinking of infection dose. Viral load is the amount of virus present in a patient. Infection dose is the amount you're exposed to.

So, I was indeed mixing those up. I think most of the following points stand?

There's not much evidence that infection dose matters in terms of case severity either, other than you're just less likely to be infected in the first place.
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