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Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

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Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#221

Post by austingulati »

ineedasername wrote: post #127
WrtCdEvrydy wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, unless you go door to door knocking... you're gonna get biased data.

Or truly random sampling that includes appropriate proportions of sub groups, e.g, socioeconomic status etc. Otherwise you have to know on all of the doors. But it's still a lot: for a 95% confidence level and 2% margin of error, for NYC you would need to test about 2,400 people. Assuming a response rate of 10%, you need to knock on 24,000 doors.

Wouldn't the ability to refuse taking the test introduce bias? i.e. the 10% that do take it still may not be representative of the entire population. Likely better than the grocery store sample, but still not ideal

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#222

Post by formercoder »

disantlor wrote: post #206
mrb wrote: post #183

If this study is accurate, then 1.8 million NYC resident are infected. So 15 411 deaths (as of today, including 5 121 probable deaths) suggests COVID-19 has a fatality rate of MINIMUM 0.9% which is in line with previous estimates (between 0.5 and 1.6%) and this is MINIMUM 9 times more fatal than the flu (0.1%). Edited to add "MINIMUM", as there is a lag between case detection and death (I should have known better to…

these comparisons to the flu usually don't seem to factor in transmissibility. seems you cant leave that out of the equation and only look at death rate

It’s important to know how risky it is to get this thing. That way we can make informed decisions about opening up.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#224

Post by vladislav »

izend wrote: post #198
mrb wrote: post #183

If this study is accurate, then 1.8 million NYC resident are infected. So 15 411 deaths (as of today, including 5 121 probable deaths) suggests COVID-19 has a fatality rate of MINIMUM 0.9% which is in line with previous estimates (between 0.5 and 1.6%) and this is MINIMUM 9 times more fatal than the flu (0.1%). Edited to add "MINIMUM", as there is a lag between case detection and death (I should have known better to…

Making it the worse pandemic in decades but no where near the Spanish Flu.

The Spanish flu had a smaller outbreak in the Spring and came back with a vengeance the following Fall, so hold that thought.

https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurge...

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#225

Post by bbarn »

chasd00 wrote: post #146
TechBro8615 wrote: post #96

So, at what point can we declare the lockdown to be a harmful overreaction and start opening countries up? Will we hold anyone accountable for models which proved to be pessimistic by orders of magnitude, causing implosion of economies around the world?

has anyone modeled at one point deaths from economic collapse overtake deaths from Covid19?

That was the first thing I said, 2 months ago, and got told I was a selfish asshole and had no clue what I'm talking about. This is going to be a real big history lesson for our grandchildren on how not to handle a situation in one way or another, unless the media rewrites the narrative.

Oh, wait.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#226

Post by taeric »

cryoshon wrote: post #179
djrogers wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> COVID hasn't given us any indication of similar activity. but we know so very little that we can't take the risk We take that risk with other viruses and bacteria literally all the time. If hypothetical but unlikely risks become thejustification for destroying people's livelihoods and the world ecomony, we're all dead anyway.

as a former immunologist, i can assure you that with common viruses and bacteria, we have years and years of knowledge about how they perform, thereby making the risks of exposure calculable. it is this body of knowledge which allows our society to normally function even during a typical flu season. we understand the upper and lower boundaries of the consequences, and we can make an informed judgment about what we sh…

I didn't realize this thread was about throwing open the gates. That said, I think there is an argument for more directed isolation measures for at risk groups. Fearing that there may be other unknowns doesn't seem to allow for any progress.

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#227

Post by esoterica »

TechBro8615 wrote: post #96

So, at what point can we declare the lockdown to be a harmful overreaction and start opening countries up? Will we hold anyone accountable for models which proved to be pessimistic by orders of magnitude, causing implosion of economies around the world?

0.18% of the entire NYC population is already dead from the coronavirus and by the time this is over the number will probably reach or exceed 0.3%.

If you want the whole country to get herd immunity you will probably see similar mortality rates across the country. 0.3% of the US population is 1 million people. How have the models been proven to be "pessimistic by orders of magnitude?

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#228

Post by ashaiber »

mrb wrote: post #183

If this study is accurate, then 1.8 million NYC resident are infected. So 15 411 deaths (as of today, including 5 121 probable deaths) suggests COVID-19 has a fatality rate of MINIMUM 0.9% which is in line with previous estimates (between 0.5 and 1.6%) and this is MINIMUM 9 times more fatal than the flu (0.1%). Edited to add "MINIMUM", as there is a lag between case detection and death (I should have known better to…

The city itself actually estimates a total of 15,411 deaths so far the the figure is already closer to 0.9%, and there are still people dying in the city every day so will likely end up a bit higher (of course, all of this assuming the study actually represents reality).

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#229

Post by timr »

glofish wrote: post #80
jdm2212 wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NYC is a younger, healthier city than the national average. NYC also has one of the best medical systems not just in America, but in the world. Roughly 0.2% of everyone in NYC has already died of COVID-19. So 0.2% is pretty close to a hard lower bound on the IFR for COVID-19. And I don't think anyone serious suggests every NYC resident has had COVID. I don't think anyone seriously suggests even half of NYC has had CO…

All I am saying people there breath the NYC air every single day. Can't possibly be good for them, especially in the light of some chronic pulmonary inflammation induced deaths. The point on the lower bound of 0.2% is informative. I did not know that.

That lower-bound argument is overly simplistic.

There are huge error bars on that ratio, because "the population of NYC" is not something easily defined, and the death count (at this time) includes a lot of "excess deaths" that almost certainly have nothing to do with the virus (e.g. untreated cardiac arrest).

Re: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have Covid antibodies

#230

Post by bbarn »

TechBro8615 wrote: post #96

So, at what point can we declare the lockdown to be a harmful overreaction and start opening countries up? Will we hold anyone accountable for models which proved to be pessimistic by orders of magnitude, causing implosion of economies around the world?

At the point where more deaths are caused by the global socio-economic collapse than COVID-19 would have caused at even pessimistic projections.

At this point, I'm not convinced in either direction.

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